根据国际铜研究小组的一份最新报告，到2019年，全球铜矿产能水平预计在强劲的4％年平均增长率水平下讲达到2650万公吨（MT）一年。
里斯本的研究小组表示，在其一年两次的铜矿和工厂调查中，预计2019年产量代表相比2015年的总增幅超过3.9mt或17％。
根据这项研究，随着每年3.9mt的增长到21mtpa，精矿产量生产到2019年将扩产83％以上。溶剂萃取/电解产能将在2019年同一时期增加到5.5mtpa。
与ICSG之前12月出版的数据估计相比，2018年和2019预期年矿生产能分别向下修正20万吨和50万吨，，主要是因为许多扩张和新建项目继续拖延。
“到2019年秘鲁预计将占到新矿项目和扩张额外产量的25%，其次是赞比亚，刚果，中国和墨西哥”ICSG表示， “总之这五个国家将占世界总增长的65％。”
目前不采铜的国家项目也正在规划中，包括阿富汗，厄瓜多尔，埃塞俄比亚，斐济，希腊，以色列，巴拿马，苏丹和泰国。
“到2019年，从这些新的铜矿开采国家启动的项目预计总的生产能力可达到330,000tpa，并且如果这些国家所评价项目继续开发的话，这些产量将会以100万吨/年以上的增长率继续增长。”ICSG分析师说。
ICSG说强调到，同时来自新开始的矿产国家的铜开采量自2000年起已经从零增加至今年的400,000tpa左右。
海底铜矿探索项目的兴趣正在进行评估，第一个预计将会是在2018年的关巴布亚新几内亚的俾斯麦海。
每年铜冶炼产能增长预计将落后于精矿的产能：平均每年增长近3％，在2019年达到22.8mtpa，与2015年的预计相比增加了240万吨。
根据ICSG目录，中国铜冶炼产能在2000年至2015年期间增长了4.7百万吨每年，并预计2019年将以1.5mtpa的速度增加五倍。除了中国，新的铜冶炼厂去年开始在赞比亚开始，印度，印度尼西亚，伊朗，哈萨克斯坦，墨西哥和蒙古也有新的待建项目。
铜在纽约最后一个交易日以$ 2.23每磅（$ 4,915每吨）交易，2016年一月中旬至今已增长4.7％，从近六年以来的低点逐渐复苏。
Copper production growing by 1m tonnes a year
Global copper production capacity at mine level through 2019 is expected to grow at a robust average annual rate of 4% to reach 26.5 million tonnes (mt) a year in 2019, according to a new report by the International Copper Study Group.
In its bi-annual directory of copper mines and plants, the Lisbon-based research group said the estimated 2019 annual production represents an increase of more than 3.9mt or 17% compared to the 2015 total.
According to the study concentrate output will represent more than 83% of the expansion with production growing by 3.9mt through 2019 to 21mtpa. Roughly 670,000t of solvent-extraction/electrowinning capacity will be added over the same period to reach 5.5mtpa in 2019.p
Compared with ICSG's previous estimate published in December, anticipated annual mine production capacity for 2018 and 2019 was revised down by 200,000t and 500,000t, respectively, owing mainly to continued delays for many expansion and greenfield projects.
"Peru is projected to account for 25% of the additional capacity from new mine projects and expansions through 2019, followed by Zambia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, China and Mexico," the ICSG said. "Together these five countries will represent 65% of the world growth."
Projects are also being planned in countries that currently do not mine copper, including Afghanistan, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Fiji, Greece, Israel, Panama, Sudan and Thailand.
"By 2019, total expected copper production capacity from projects starting in these new copper mining countries could reach 330,000tpa, and capacity could continue to increase well above 1mt/year if projects under evaluation in these countries are developed," ICSG analysts said.
Concurrently, production from countries that started mining copper in the last decade is seen as increasing from zero in 2000 to around 400,000tpa this year. ICSG notes "increased
interest in seabed copper exploration with some projects being evaluated, the first one of which is expected to start in 2018 in the Bismarck Sea, off Papua New Guinea."
Annual copper smelter capacity growth is projected to lag behind the growth in concentrate capacity, growing by an average of almost 3% per year to reach 22.8mtpa in 2019, an increase of 2.4mt compared to 2015.
China's copper smelting capacity quintupled in the period 2000-2015 increasing by around 4.7mtpa and is expected to increase by a further 1.5mtpa by 2019. Outside of China, a new copper smelter started last year in Zambia and others are expected to be built in India, Indonesia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Mexico and Mongolia according to the ICSG directory.
Copper was last trading at $2.23 a pound ($4,915 a tonne) in New York, recovering from a near six-year low hit mid-January and up 4.7% so far in 2016.
