2020年伊始，作为未来十年航运市场的起始之年，今年无疑是重要的时间节点。过去一年中对国际航运界构成深刻影响的因素是否将持续发酵？未来又将有哪些机遇必须把握以立于不败之地？
新型货运及报关代理Flexport对2020年国际航运界趋势做出三大预测，并认为数字化能力将是行业乘风破浪所需依赖的核心动能。
趋势一、诸多不确定因素持续对供应链构成影响
远洋航运本就因供应链过于漫长而充满不确定性。而过去一年中，一系列宏观因素进一步加剧了行业的不确定性，此势头在2020年将继续对国际贸易和供应链构成影响。
整体经济层面，国际货币基金组织（IMF）在刚刚过去的2019年中四次下调全球经济增速预期。在2019年10月发布的最新一期《世界经济展望报告》中，对2020年的预期由2019年一月预计的3.6%调至3.4%，仍呈现疲软态势。同时，贸易因素、英国脱欧进程、非关税措施激增、能源价格波动等不确定因素仍将持续。
而在行业层面，国际海事组织（International Maritime Organization，IMO）也提升了环保方面的监管要求。其旨在限硫的IMO新政已于今年1月1日正式生效，但许多难题仍悬而未决。行业在使用高价低硫油与寻找其他可替代方案之间摇摆不定，且无论哪种方案，都意味着高昂的成本投入。波士顿咨询公司的研究显示，2020年到2023年间，仅集装箱班轮的燃料成本一项，就将增加250亿至300亿美元的成本。
At the beginning of 2020, as the starting year of the shipping market in the next decade, this year is undoubtedly an important time node. Will the factors that have a profound impact on the international shipping industry in the past year continue to ferment? What opportunities must we seize in the future to remain invincible?
Flexport, a new freight and customs broker, makes three predictions on the trend of international shipping industry in 2020, and believes that digital capability will be the core driving force for the industry to ride the wind and waves.
Trend 1. Continuous influence of many uncertain factors on Supply Chain
Ocean shipping is full of uncertainty because the supply chain is too long. In the past year, a series of macro factors have further increased the uncertainty of the industry, which will continue to affect international trade and supply chain in 2020.
On the overall economic level, the International Monetary Fund has lowered its global economic growth forecast four times in the past 2019. In the latest world economic outlook report released in October 2019, the forecast for 2020 has been adjusted from 3.6% in January 2019 to 3.4%, which is still weak. At the same time, uncertainties such as trade factors, the process of brexit, the surge of non-tariff measures and the fluctuation of energy prices will continue.
At the industry level, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has also raised regulatory requirements for environmental protection. The new IMO policy, which aims to limit sulfur, came into effect on January 1 this year, but many problems remain unresolved. The industry is wavering between using high price and low sulfur oil and looking for alternative solutions, and either solution means high cost investment. According to BCG research, between 2020 and 2023, the cost of container liner fuel alone will increase by $25 billion to $30 billion.
同时，在国内市场，随着运力持续增加，及消费者对于时效性的要求日益提高，行业面临的竞争非常激烈。另外，国内日益深化的供给侧结构性改革使得更多的制造业企业面临转型升级，部分低端制造业继续战略性外迁。
At the same time, in the domestic market, with the continuous increase of transportation capacity and the increasing demand of consumers for timeliness, the industry is facing fierce competition. In addition, the deepening supply side structural reform in China makes more manufacturing enterprises face transformation and upgrading, and some low-end manufacturing industries continue to move out strategically.