越南：从“前沿市场”跃升为“次级新兴市场”
Keywords: 越南 Vietnam; 投资 Investment; 政府事务 Government Affairs
随着全球指数提供商富时罗素（FTSE Russell）将其从前沿市场重新分类为次级新兴市场，越南的金融与经济发展即将迎来重大飞跃。该调整将于2026年9月正式生效，标志着越南融入全球资本市场的关键节点，有望吸引数十亿美元的外商直接投资（FDI）。
Vietnam is poised for a major leap in its financial and economic development following its reclassification by global index provider FTSE Russell from a frontier market to a secondary emerging market. Scheduled to take effect in September 2026, this upgrade marks a pivotal moment in Vietnam's integration into global capital markets and is expected to unlock billions in foreign direct investment (FDI).
此次升级是越南多年战略改革的结果，旨在提升市场开放度并使金融基础设施与国际标准接轨。自2018年被列入富时罗素观察名单以来，越南取消了外国投资者的预付款要求，采用非退款模式，并建立了失败交易的正式处理流程。这些改革提高了透明度、投资者保护和运营效率，正是获得新兴市场地位的核心标准。
The reclassification is the result of years of strategic reform aimed at improving market accessibility and aligning Vietnam's financial infrastructure with international standards. Since being placed on FTSE Russell's watch list in 2018, Vietnam has removed the prefunding requirement for foreign investors, adopted a non-refunding model, and implemented a formal process for handling failed trades. These reforms have enhanced transparency, investor protection, and operational efficiency, key criteria for emerging market status.
越南如今也成为了与菲律宾、巴基斯坦等一样的次级新兴市场，仅次于中国和印度等一线新兴经济体。这一跃升预计将显著扩大越南在全球投资组合中的权重，尤其是追踪富时新兴市场指数的资金。
Vietnam now joins the ranks of secondary emerging markets such as the Philippines and Pakistan, positioning itself just below primary emerging economies like China and India. This shift is expected to significantly broaden Vietnam's inclusion in global investment portfolios, particularly those tracking FTSE's emerging market indices.
市场普遍预测，此次升级将带来外资流入的大幅增长。据估算，净外商投资额有望增加60亿至100亿美元，具体取决于市场环境和投资者风险偏好。主权财富基金、养老基金等长期机构投资者将成为主要推手——它们通常避开前沿市场，却积极配置新兴市场资产。
The upgrade is projected to attract a substantial increase in foreign capital inflows. Estimates suggest that net foreign investment could rise by $6 billion to $10 billion, depending on market conditions and investor appetite. This influx will be driven by institutional investors, including sovereign wealth funds and pension funds, that typically avoid frontier markets but actively invest in emerging ones.
地位升级也令越南对外商直接投资更具吸引力。仅2024年，越南就吸引逾360亿美元的外商直接投资，制造业、房地产和可再生能源领跑。重新分类将进一步提振投资者信心，并降低可感知风险，促使已落地外资企业追加投资，也吸引全新投资者入场。
Vietnam's upgraded status also enhances its appeal as a destination for FDI. In 2024 alone, the country recorded over $36 billion in FDI, with manufacturing, real estate, and renewable energy leading the way. The reclassification is expected to reinforce investor confidence, reduce perceived risks, and encourage both reinvestment by existing foreign enterprises and entry by new investors.
越南资本市场将迎来更多外资参与，随之而来的不仅是资金，还有技术专长与全球最佳实践。预计交易量将放大，首次公开募股（IPOs）也会增多，本土企业希望借此乘势而上。
Vietnam's capital markets are set to benefit from increased foreign participation, which will bring not only financial resources but also technical expertise and global best practices. Higher trading volumes and more initial public offerings (IPOs) are anticipated, as domestic companies seek to capitalize on heightened investor interest.
监管部门已提出路线图：升级交易系统、完善交易后基础设施、强化市场监督，以确保金融体系在承载更高活跃度的同时，保持稳健与诚信。
Regulatory authorities have outlined plans to modernize trading systems, improve post-trade infrastructure, and enhance market surveillance. These initiatives aim to ensure that Vietnam's financial system can accommodate increased activity while maintaining stability and integrity.
不过，乐观情绪仍有一道“闸门”：2026年3月的最终评审。富时罗素将检视越南是否继续通过国际券商改善市场准入。若关键指标未达标，升级可能被推迟甚至撤销。
Despite the optimism, the upgrade remains contingent on a final review in March 2026. FTSE Russell will assess Vietnam's continued progress in improving market access through global brokers. Failure to meet key benchmarks could delay or reverse the reclassification.
结构性难题依旧：外资持股比例受限、货币可兑换性不足、监管透明度仍需提升。能否化解这些顾虑，关乎投资者信心能否持续，也决定新身份带来的红利能否最大化。同时，政策层必须审慎管理资本流入，以防经济过热或资产泡沫。
Structural challenges persist, including limitations on foreign ownership, currency convertibility issues, and the need for greater regulatory transparency. Addressing these concerns is essential to sustaining investor confidence and maximizing the benefits of the new classification. Policymakers must also manage capital inflows carefully to avoid economic overheating or asset bubbles.
越南的晋级恰逢全球投资者因传统市场地缘紧张与经济不确定性，而加速布局东南亚。凭借稳定的政局、战略区位和充满活力的劳动力，越南有望承接这股转移而来的资金潮。
Vietnam's elevation comes at a time when global investors are increasingly looking to diversify into Southeast Asia amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties in traditional markets. With its stable political environment, strategic location, and dynamic labor force, Vietnam is well-positioned to attract this shifting capital.
此次升级亦强化了越南在东盟内部的角色，凸显其竞争力与区域影响力的日益上升，与东南亚各国提升投资形象、吸引全球资本的共同目标同频共振。
The upgrade also strengthens Vietnam's role within the ASEAN bloc, highlighting its competitiveness and growing influence in the region. It aligns with broader efforts by Southeast Asian economies to enhance their investment profiles and attract global capital.
私营企业将成为此次重新分类的最大受益者之一。更便利的资本市场准入，可以促进企业扩张、创新和国际合作。已在越南落地的跨国公司有望加码投资，而金融科技、医疗、绿色能源等新赛道成员也将陆续入场探路。
The private sector is expected to benefit significantly from the reclassification. Increased access to capital markets can support business expansion, innovation, and international partnerships. Multinational corporations operating in Vietnam may scale up their investments, while new entrants from sectors such as fintech, healthcare, and green energy are likely to explore opportunities.
中小企业（SMEs）同样将受惠：融资渠道拓宽，全球商业实践触手可及，整体投资氛围将更活跃、更具竞争性，创业与经济多元化随之提速。
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) may also gain from improved financing options and exposure to global business practices. The overall investment climate is expected to become more dynamic and competitive, fostering entrepreneurship and economic diversification.
要想充分利用富时罗素的升级红利，越南决策者必须采取系统战略，持续巩固对全球资金的吸引力。核心抓手是提升监管透明度——规则清晰、一致、可预期，才能赢得投资者信任，筑牢金融体系公信力。
To fully capitalize on the FTSE Russell upgrade, Vietnam's policymakers must adopt a comprehensive strategy that reinforces the country's appeal to global investors. Enhancing regulatory transparency is central to this effort. Clear, consistent, and predictable rules foster investor trust and strengthen the integrity of the financial system.
基础设施——无论实体还是数字——是另一项关键任务。高效的交通网络、稳定的能源体系、强健的数字连接，既能支撑企业日常运营，也向外界宣示长期增长的决心。扩大高速互联网覆盖、普及数字支付系统，对于越南融入全球数字经济尤为重要。
Infrastructure development, both physical and digital, is another critical priority. Efficient transport networks, reliable energy systems, and robust digital connectivity are essential for supporting business operations and signaling long-term commitment to growth. Expanding high-speed internet access and digital payment systems will be particularly important for integrating Vietnam into the global digital economy.
推行环境、社会与治理（ESG）标准同样刻不容缓。可持续性已成为投资决策的决定性标准，越南必须把企业行为与公共政策对标国际ESG基准。鼓励负责任的商业行为、完善环保法规、促进包容性增长，将吸引新一轮的负责任投资。
Promoting environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards is also vital. As sustainability becomes a defining criterion for investment decisions, Vietnam must align its corporate and public policies with global ESG benchmarks. Encouraging responsible business practices, improving environmental regulations, and fostering inclusive growth will attract a new wave of responsible investment.
最后，培育人力资本是锁定高价值产业竞争力的根基。越南人口年轻是巨大红利，但必须辅以教育、职业培训与创新领域的精准投入。打造一支技能过硬、适应力强的劳动力大军，才能向价值链上游攀升，并让增长成果惠及更广泛的民众。
Finally, cultivating human capital is essential for sustaining competitiveness in high-value industries. Vietnam's youthful population is a tremendous asset, but it must be matched with targeted investments in education, vocational training, and innovation. Building a skilled and adaptable workforce will enable the country to move up the value chain and ensure that the benefits of growth are widely shared.
结语
Conclusion
越南被重新归类为次级新兴市场，远不止象征性的升级，而是一次深化全球市场融合、加速经济发展的战略契机。通过持续推动改革、投资基础设施、坚持包容性增长，越南不仅有望跻身全球投资首选地，更可成为其他新兴经济体的标杆。
Vietnam's reclassification as a secondary emerging market is more than a symbolic upgrade, it is a strategic opportunity to deepen global market integration and accelerate economic development. With sustained reforms, infrastructure investment, and a focus on inclusive growth, Vietnam is poised to become a leading destination for global investment and a model for other emerging economies.
END
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D’Andrea & Partners Legal Counsel is a leading international law firm, with our European headquarters situated in Milan, Italy, and our Asia-Pacific headquarters based in Shanghai, China. Our firm has a strong presence across major cities in China. Our firm has a strong presence across major cities in China, India, Italy, UAE, and Vietnam, as well as a Russian-speaking Desk. We are one of the very few international law firms in China duly authorized by the Ministry of Justice of the PRC to operate as a Representative Office of a foreign law firm in China.
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