【华泰宏观】联储1月会议表态偏鹰

如果您希望第一时间收到推送，别忘了加“星标”！

美国1月FOMC点评

北京时间2月1日（周四）凌晨，联储1月FOMC决议如期暂停加息、基准利率维持在5.25%-5.5%区间，前瞻指引中去除了未来可能继续加息的表述，但鲍威尔表示，需要看到更多通胀回落的数据才有信心降息，基准情形下3月不降息，表态偏鹰。缩表方面，美联储仍然维每月950亿美元（600亿国债+350亿MBS）的缩表上限，但本次会议开始讨论放缓缩表速度（QT taper），3月会议将详细讨论。FOMC会议前纽约社区银行（NYCB）计提损失拨备超预期导致盘前股价暴跌（图表1），打击市场风险情绪，美债收益率下行，美股下跌；偏鹰的FOMC决议公布后，降息预期回落，美债收益率上升、美元走强、美股下跌。截至北京时间凌晨4:30，相较会前，纳斯达克、标普500指数和道琼斯指数小幅回升后因鲍威尔偏鹰言论回落,最终分别下跌-1.0%、-0.9%和-0.8%。；2年和10年期美债收益率均上行3bp至4.27%和3.99%；美元指数上涨0.5%至103.7；3月降息概率从48%下降至38%，2024全年降息幅度上升5bp至145bp（图表2）。

增长方面，联储对增长的描述比12月更加积极，但鲍威尔表示宣布软着陆还为时尚早。1月声明对增长的评价更为积极（slow→solid），鲍威尔也在讲话中强调强劲的消费者需求以及供应链改善使增长保持强劲。此外，鲍威尔表示，经济尚未实现“软着陆”（have a ways to go）。劳动力市场仍然偏紧（tight），需求仍然超过供给，但更加接近平衡；往前看，劳动力市场的再平衡将继续持续，工资增速虽然较高，但是在趋势性回落。

通胀方面，鲍威尔承认通胀取得的进展，但希望看到更多通胀回落的证据。鲍威尔表示，过去六个月通胀回落速度超预期，但需要更多数据（more good data）来增强对通胀回落的信心：商品通胀偏弱是通胀回落的主要贡献，通胀要持续下行，服务通胀需要进一步放缓。往前看，鲍威尔认为，通胀回落仍然有一些“顺风”，包括供应链和劳工市场的进一步正常化等。

货币政策方面，鲍威尔表示，需要看到更多通胀回落的数据才有信心降息，基准情形下3月不降息。联储的决议声明中去除了未来可能继续加息的表述，鲍威尔也表态称联储已经达到加息终点（likely at peak），为后续降息准备条件。但对于未来的降息路径，鲍威尔表示，委员会内部对降息的时点有一定的分歧（wide disparity），整体仍然是数据依赖；虽然联储有信心通胀在向2%回归，但需要看到更多通胀回落的数据，从而对通胀达到目标“更有信心”（greater confidence），才会启动降息；基准情形下，3月可能不是最可能的降息时点。但鲍威尔也强调，如果通胀或者就业回落超预期，降息会更早，并未完全排除3月降息的可能性。缩表方面，鲍威尔表示1月会议对放缓缩表速度进行了讨论，预计3月会议将进行深入讨论。

往前看，联储对下一步决策持开放态度，但3月降息的概率下降，5月降息概率上升。过去半年美国核心PCE通胀已经回落至联储目标水平以下（图表3），往前看，若通胀维持偏弱态势，那么联储将开启降息周期，推动利率“正常化”（参见《全球通胀下行速度超预期的宏观含义》，2023/12/17；《联储是否会更快降息，影响几何？》，2024/1/4）。根据鲍威尔的表态，我们认为，基准情形下，联储或5月首次降息，但若3月会前的两份通胀和就业报告明显不及预期，不排除3月降息的可能性。缩表方面，联储3月会议将详细讨论缩表相关问题，我们认为，联储或在年中宣布taper，并分多步骤taper，但以求在不影响金融稳定的前提下实现资产负债表规模“最小化”（参见《减缓缩表：联储将如何“摸着石头过河”？》，2024/1/30）。

风险提示：联储鹰派超预期；通胀粘性超预期。

附录: 1月FOMC和2023年12月FOMC声明的对比

Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has been expanding at a solid slowed from its strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have moderated since early lastearlier in the year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

In support of itsthese goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of any additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.