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贸易战大反攻,美股崩了,特朗普疯了

贸易战大反攻,美股崩了,特朗普疯了 国际贸易争端
2019-08-28
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文丨白云先生

来源:至道学宫(zhidaoxue)

昨天,在美股上周最后一个交易日,我们给美国来了个大惊喜。国务院关税税则委员会网站8月23日,对美国挑起的贸易战,做出反制措施。宣布对美国对华出口约750亿美元的商品加征5%到10%不等的关税,分两批自2019年9月1日12时01分、12月15日12时01分起实施。


就在本月15日,美国继续升级贸易战。美国政府宣布,对自华进口的约3000亿美元商品加征10%关税,分两批自2019年9月1日、12月15日起实施。这既损害中国、美国以及其他各国利益,也严重威胁多边贸易体制和自由贸易原则。所以,昨天中方做出了反制措施。


这次的大反攻,主要打击美方的原油,大豆和汽车工业。附带其他的一些美国商品。打击面比较广,可以说是招招致命。


对美国对华出口的原油加税,这个是比较狠的一招。可能大家还不知道,美国早就超过了沙特,成为全球原油第一生产国。美国已经控制了中东的石油生产,为什么要在本土大力的发展石油工业呢?因为这是美国的B计划。美国的A计划是他能够守住中东,控制住中东的原油贸易。然而他已经失守了,所以他就要给美元寻找新的信用基础。


大家可能又疑惑了,原油不是稀缺的资源吗,怎么突然就冒出来一个世界第一大原油生产国?事实上,原油根本不稀缺,也更不是什么远古生物的生命尸体高温高压之下变成的。


美国所谓的原油稀缺,其实先建立军事霸权,再用军事霸权控制航道,然后再控制贸易。控制了贸易之后,他就可以一边编造原油稀缺的谎言,一边指定世界各国到指定的地方买石油。最后再强制大家用美元结算。这就是美国控制全球贸易的暴力和诈骗生意的大闭环。


而随着在叙利亚的军事失利,这个贸易闭环,从第一链条被瓦解,军事霸权没了,控制不住关键航道了,进而控制不住原油贸易了,再进一步,控制不住美元的基础货币的地位了。


怎么办呢?为了让美元不至于成为废纸。美国就需要启用B计划,以后持有美元的人,起码可以兑换美国的石油嘛。美国正在向着成为资源国和农业国的道路上一路狂奔之际,中国宣布对美国出口的石油加税。这可谓是击碎了美国的B计划,也断绝了美国的后路。之前,中美双方还是挺默契的,甚至中国还是美国原油的最大买家。


美国的这个B计划,根本就是一个假棋,因为最大的漏洞就在于,石油根本不稀缺。地层之下,到处都是石油。石油的有机成因说,稍微动动脑子,大家想想就不可能。首先,生物死亡之后,会被细菌分解掉,即便沉到水底,也会被其他生物吃掉和被细菌分解掉,大家可以搜一下鲸落现象就了解了。第二,地球上到处都是生物,不可能这里的生物变成了石油,那里的生物没有变成石油。第三点,即便生物因为地震被埋入地下,生物的尸体,依然会被细菌分解掉,而不可能生成大规模的石油。


可见,石油这个东西,就是军事霸权国家,说哪里有,哪里就有。然后大家都去指定的地方,接受被霸主割韭菜。


这些美国人的退路都没了,可谓是要了老命了。做资源国,前途渺茫。那做农业国呢?前途更加的渺茫。这次反击,也打击了美国的农产品。而且看这次的清单,非常明显的一个特征是,大多数都是美国的农产品,和美国的初级资源产品。学宫在之前的文章中说过,美国的未来和希望,就是成为一个资源国和农业国,这下希望全都破灭了。


打了农业和资源,又打了汽车。这个也非常的狠。汽车工业,是美国所剩不多的制造业,而且美国的汽车工业,还承担着美国未来进行军备竞赛的工业支撑和产能支撑。这次被遭到重创之后,对美国是双重打击。一方面是美国的制造业能力,持续衰弱。另一方面是,直接损害了美国的军事能力,和未来进行军备竞赛的能力。



对这次致命的打击,资本市场很快做出反应,美股直接被打爆了,大跌623点。这次大反攻,应该会把美股打到25000点以下。如果打到这里的话,会击垮很多人的心理防线,导致美股继续狂泻。


所以,要继续乘胜追击,对美股进行极限施压,直到击垮它。美股对美国非常重要。因为美国的银行系统,现在都是围绕着美股运转的。银行拿到的钱根本不会投资实体企业,而是在资本市场上空转。不断推高资产价格,然后用资产价格的增长,进行估值的增长,再抵押给银行,再创造出来更多的信贷。拿了钱之后,回购自己的股票,继续推高美股。如此反复,这就是美股最近十年牛市的基本逻辑。


如果把美股打崩了,银行的信贷,就会成为坏账,然后银行破产,信贷系统失灵,于是美国的整个债务链条,就会彻底崩盘。这次的海啸,起码是08年金融危机的很多倍。几乎是可以让美国亡国的一次大崩盘。


所以啊,看美股崩了,特朗普整个人都疯了。


特朗普先是说,道指狂跌可能是为莫尔顿退出竞选的消息作出反应。这句话非常不过脑子。自己的政敌退出竞选,美股大跌,那说明美国人不希望看到自己的政敌退出竞选嘛。特朗普现在连正反话都不分了,应该是真疯了。可能是气疯了,也可能是极度的恐慌之下的口不择言。总之呢,他现在的心态崩的很彻底。


稍微冷静了一下,特朗普也不知道该怎么办。特朗普说,美联储出招吧。把皮球踢给美联储了。


暗示让美联储降息100个基点。而美联储主席鲍威尔的话,到底降息还是不降息,有点模棱两可。这又激怒了特朗普。他放狠话出来威胁鲍威尔说,我们现在的敌人,到底是中国,还是美联储,矛头直指美联储。


一边和美联储过招。特朗普一边继续昏招频出,在推特上说:“我现在下令,我们伟大的美国企业立刻停止从中国进行采购,回到美国本土。”


如果特朗普真的把贸易战升级到两国之间的贸易禁运,在中国已经完成进口替代,美国却无法实现进口替代的情况下,美国这个国家,经济和社会秩序会直接陷入崩溃。更可怕的是,美元也会遭到中国的彻底抛弃。


那有人要担心了,如果美国冻结中国的一万亿美债怎么办,这个没必要太担心。因为如果真到了这一步,美国冻结中国的美债,中国也可以冻结美国在华资产,差不多也是一万亿美元左右。不亏不赚,美国也讨不到便宜。而且还会彻底激怒美国的在华利益集团,他们肯定要联合起来,撕碎特朗普。所以不要怕美国走这步棋。如果我们先未雨绸缪,开始减持美债。双方掀桌子的时候,互相冻结对方资产,我们还能赚一些。


因为金融战,美国节节败退,这让建国的精神状态越来越不正常。前几天美国爆发了枪击案,特朗普的方法就是,在美国建造更多的精神病院,去改造那些潜在的枪击案嫌疑犯。如果这个方法真管用的话,这些精神病院建好了之后,特朗普得先给自己留一个。他自己现在就已经像个精神病人了。


贸易战的实质就是金融战。特朗普打不赢金融战,把皮球踢给美联储。美联储就能打赢了吗?他同样也打不赢这场金融战。


为什么这么说呢?因为美联储当年先宽松了一波,来攻击中国,结果几万亿美元都没有退回来,反而都变成了中国的美元外汇储备。没办法,美联储又紧缩,企图通过紧缩政策,把中国的外储挤兑出来,结果又失败了。如果美联储再宽松的话,不过就是重演之前的一幕,很多美元跑进来,甚至很多跨国资本跳船,抛弃美国,这会让中国的外储变得更多,实力更强,弹药库也变得更充裕。所以,美联储再通过货币宽松来打金融战,就是送人头。


那美联储通过宽松政策,能撑住美股吗?也不能。因为美国现在的情况,是处于被动挨打的战略防御阶段,如果一味的降息和宽松,只会加剧美国境内资本的外流,加剧美国国内的恶性通胀。恶梦一般的美债收益率倒挂,已经昭示美国无计可施了。


崩盘,是唯一的结局。


那美国真的没救了吗?也不是没救,还是有一个救命的路可选的。那就是投降。中国一直说,回到合作的正确的道路上来,其实就是劝美国投降。合作是唯一的选择,这句话翻译过来,就是对美国说,投降是唯一的选择。


如果美国真心愿意投降的话,要保住一条命还是没问题的。但是投降呢,起码香港的事就不能闹了,台湾的事,该还给中国就要归还。整个西太,也都要送给中国。


如果再负隅顽抗,美股被打到25000以下,甚至被打到20000点以下,事情就不太好控制了。由此引发的金融大海啸,就会彻底毁掉美国。



169. Don't let yesterday use up too much of today. 别留念昨天了,把握好今天吧。(Will Rogers) 170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up. 你不勇敢,没人替你坚强。171. If you don't build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs. 如果你没有梦想,那么你只能为别人的梦想打工。172. Beauty is all around, if you just open your heart to see. 只要你给自己机会,你会发现你的世界可以很美丽。173. The difference in winning and losing is most often...not quitting. 赢与输的差别通常是--不放弃。(华特·迪士尼) 174. I am ordinary yet unique. 我很平凡,但我独一无二。175. I like people who make me laugh in spite of myself. 我喜欢那些让我笑起来的人,就算是我不想笑的时候。176. Image a new story for your life and start living it. 为你的生命想一个全新剧本,并去倾情出演吧!177. I'd rather be a happy fool than a sad sage. 做个悲伤的智者,不如做个开心的傻子。178. The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams. 未来属于那些相信梦想之美的人。(埃莉诺·罗斯福) 179. Even if you get no applause, you should accept a curtain call gracefully and appreciate your own efforts. 即使没有人为你鼓掌,也要优雅的谢幕,感谢自己的认真付出。180. Don't let dream just be your dream. 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样。185. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. 今天的好计划胜过明天的完美计划。186. Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'! 一切皆有可能!“不可能”的意思是:“不,可能。”(奥黛丽·赫本) 187. Life isn't fair, but no matter your circumstances, you have to give it your all. 生活是不公平的,不管你的境遇如何,你只能全力以赴。188. No matter how hard it is, just keep going because you only fail when you give up. 无论多么艰难,都要继续前进,因为只有你放弃的那一刻,你才输了。     When Paul Jobs was mustered out of the Coast Guard after World War II, he made a wager with his crewmates. They had arrived in San Francisco, where their ship was decommissioned, and Paul bet that he would find himself a wife within two weeks. He was a taut, tattooed engine mechanic, six feet tall, with a passing resemblance to James Dean. But it wasn’t his looks that got him a date with Clara Hagopian, a sweet-humored daughter of Armenian immigrants. It was the fact that he and his friends had a car, unlike the group she had originally planned to go out with that evening. Ten days later, in March 1946, Paul got engaged to Clara and won his wager. It would turn out to be a happy marriage, one that lasted until death parted them more than forty years later. Paul Reinhold Jobs had been raised on a dairy farm in Germantown, Wisconsin. Even though his father was an alcoholic and sometimes abusive, Paul ended up with a gentle and calm disposition under his leathery exterior. After dropping out of high school, he wandered through the Midwest picking up work as a mechanic until, at age nineteen, he joined the Coast Guard, even though he didn’t know how to swim. He was deployed on the USS General M. C. Meigs and spent much of the war ferrying troops to Italy for General Patton. His talent as a machinist and fireman earned him commendations, but he occasionally found himself in minor trouble and never rose above the rank of seaman. Clara was born in New Jersey, where her parents had landed after fleeing the Turks in Armenia, and they moved to the Mission District of San Francisco when she was a child. She had a secret that she rarely mentioned to anyone: She had been married before, but her husband had been killed in the war. So when she met Paul Jobs on that first date, she was primed to start a new life. Clara, however, loved San Francisco, and in 1952 she convinced her husband to move back there. They got an apartment in the Sunset District facing the Pacific, just south of Golden Gate Park, and he took a job working for a finance company as a “repo man,” picking the locks of cars whose owners hadn’t paid their loans and repossessing them. He also bought, repaired, and sold some of the cars, making a decent enough living in the process. There was, however, something missing in their lives. They wanted children, but Clara had suffered an ectopic pregnancy, in which the fertilized egg was implanted in a fallopian tube rather than the uterus, and she had been unable to have any. So by 1955, after nine years of marriage, they were looking to adopt a child. Like Paul Jobs, Joanne Schieble was from a rural Wisconsin family of German heritage. Her father, Arthur Schieble, had immigrated to the outskirts of Green Bay, where he and his wife owned a mink farm and dabbled successfully in various other businesses, including real estate and photoengraving. He was very strict, especially regarding his daughter’s relationships, and he had strongly disapproved of her first love, an artist who was not a Catholic. Thus it was no surprise that he threatened to cut Joanne off completely when, as a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, she fell in love with Abdulfattah “John” Jandali, a Muslim teaching assistant from Syria. Jandali was the youngest of nine children in a prominent Syrian family. His father owned oil refineries and multiple other businesses, with large holdings in Damascus and Homs, and at one point pretty much controlled the price of wheat in the region. His mother, he later said, was a “traditional Muslim woman” who was a “conservative, obedient housewife.” Like the Schieble family, the Jandalis put a premium on education. Abdulfattah was sent to a Jesuit boarding school, even though he was Muslim, and he got an undergraduate degree at the American University in Beirut before entering the University of Wisconsin to pursue a doctoral degree in political science. In the summer of 1954, Joanne went with Abdulfattah to Syria. They spent two months in Homs, where she learned from his family to cook Syrian dishes. When they returned to Wisconsin she discovered that she was pregnant. They were both twenty-three, but they decided not to get married. Her father was dying at the time, and he had threatened to disown her if she wed Abdulfattah. Nor was abortion an easy option in a small Catholic community. So in early 1955, Joanne traveled to San Francisco, where she was taken into the care of a kindly doctor who sheltered unwed mothers, delivered their babies, and quietly arranged closed adoptions. Joanne had one requirement: Her child must be adopted by college graduates. So the doctor arranged for the baby to be placed with a lawyer and his wife. But when a boy was born—on February 24, 1955—the designated couple decided that they wanted a girl and backed out. Thus it was that the boy became the son not of a lawyer but of a high school dropout with a passion for mechanics and his salt-of-the-earth wife who was working as a bookkeeper. Paul and Clara named their new baby Steven Paul Jobs. When Joanne found out that her baby had been placed with a couple who had not even graduated from high school, she refused to sign the adoption papers. The standoff lasted weeks, even after the baby had settled into the Jobs household. Eventually Joanne relented, with the stipulation that the couple promise—indeed sign a pledge—to fund a savings account to pay for the boy’s college education. There was another reason that Joanne was balky about signing the adoption papers. Her father was about to die, and she planned to marry Jandali soon after. She held out hope, she would later tell family members, sometimes tearing up at the memory, that once they were married, she could get their 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样。baby boy back. Arthur Schieble died in August 1955, after the adoption was finalized. Just after Christmas that year, Joanne and Abdulfattah were married in St. Philip the Apostle Catholic Church in Green Bay. He got his PhD in international politics the next year, and then they had another child, a girl named Mona. After she and Jandali divorced in 1962, Joanne embarked on a dreamy and peripatetic life that her daughter, who grew up to become the acclaimed novelist Mona Simpson, would capture in her book Anywhere but Here. Because Steve’s adoption had been closed, it would be twenty years before they would all find each other. Steve Jobs knew from an early age that he was adopted. “My parents were very open with me about that,” he recalled. He had a vivid memory of sitting on the lawn of his house, when he was six or seven years old, telling the girl who lived across the street. “So does that mean your real parents didn’t want you?” the girl asked. “Lightning bolts went off in my head,” according to Jobs. “I remember running into the house, crying. And my parents said, ‘No, you have to understand.’ They were very serious and looked me straight in the eye. They said, ‘We specifically picked you out.’ Both of my parents said that and repeated it slowly for me. And they put an emphasis on every word in that sentence.” Abandoned. Chosen. Special. Those concepts became part of who Jobs was and how he regarded himself. His closest friends think that the knowledge that he was given up at birth left some scars. “I think his desire for complete control of whatever he makes derives directly from his personality and the fact that he was abandoned at birth,” said one longtime colleague, Del Yocam. “He wants to control his environment, and he sees the product as an extension of himself.” Greg Calhoun, who became close to Jobs right after college, saw another effect. “Steve talked to me a lot about being abandoned and the pain that caused,” he said. “It made him independent. He followed the beat of a different drummer, and that came from being in a different world than he was born into.” Later in life, when he was the same age his biological father had been when he abandoned him, Jobs would father and abandon a child of his own. (He eventually took responsibility for her.) Chrisann Brennan, the mother of that child, said that being put up for adoption left Jobs “full of broken glass,” and it helps to explain some of his behavior. “He who is abandoned is an abandoner,” she said. Andy Hertzfeld, who worked with Jobs at Apple in the early 1980s, is among the few who remained close to both Brennan and Jobs. “The key question about Steve is why he can’t control himself at times from being so reflexively cruel and harmful to some people,” he said. “That goes back to being abandoned at birth. The real underlying problem was the theme of abandonment in Steve’s life.” Jobs dismissed this. “There’s some notion that because I was abandoned, I worked very hard so I could do well and make my parents wish they had me back, or some such nonsense, but that’s ridiculous,” he insisted. “Knowing I was adopted may have made me feel more independent, but I have never felt abandoned. I’ve always felt special. My parents made me feel special.” He would later bristle whenever anyone referred to Paul and Clara Jobs as his “adoptive” parents or implied that they were not his “real” parents. “They were my parents 1,000%,” he said. When speaking about his biological parents, on the other hand, he was curt: “They were my sperm and egg bank. That’s not harsh, it’s just the way it was, a sperm bank thing, nothing more.” Silicon Valley The childhood that Paul and Clara Jobs created for their new son was, in many ways, a stereotype of the late 1950s. When Steve was two they adopted a girl they named Patty, and three years later they moved to a tract house in the suburbs. The finance company where Paul worked as a repo man, CIT, had transferred him down to its Palo Alto office, but he could not afford to live there, so they landed in a subdivision in Mountain View, a less expensive town just to the south. There Paul tried to pass along his love of mechanics and cars. “Steve, this is your workbench now,” he said as he marked off a section of the table in their garage. Jobs remembered being impressed by his father’s focus on craftsmanship. “I thought my dad’s sense of design was pretty good,” he said, “because he knew how to build anything. If we needed a cabinet, he would build it. When he built our fence, he gave me a hammer so I could work with him.” Fifty years later the fence still surrounds the back and side yards of the house in Mountain View. As Jobs showed it off to me, he caressed the stockade panels and recalled a lesson that his father implanted deeply in him. It was important, his father said, to craft the backs of cabinets and fences properly, even though they were hidden. “He loved doing things right. He even cared about the look of the parts you couldn’t see.” His father continued to refurbish and resell used cars, and he festooned the garage with pictures of his favorites. He would point out the detailing of the design to his son: the lines, the vents, the chrome, the trim of the seats. After work each day, he would change into his dungarees and retreat to the garage, often with Steve tagging along. “I figured I could get him nailed down with a little mechanical ability, but he really wasn’t interested in getting his hands dirty,” Paul later recalled. “He never really cared too much about m189. It requires hard work to give off an appearance of effortlessness. 你必须十分努力,才能看起来毫不费力。190. Life is like riding a bicycle.To keep your balance,you must keep moving. 人生就像骑单车,只有不断前进,才能保持平衡。(爱因斯坦) 191. Be thankful for what you have.You'll end up having more. 拥有一颗感恩的心,最终你会得到更多。192. Beauty is how you feel inside, and it reflects in your eyes. 美是一种内心的感觉,并反映在你的眼睛里。(索菲亚·罗兰) 193. Friendship doubles your joys, and divides your sorrows. 朋友的作用,就是让你快乐加倍,痛苦减半。194. When you long for something sincerely, the whole world will help you. 当你真心渴望某样东西时,整个宇宙都会来帮忙。echanical things.” “I wasn’t that into fixing cars,” Jobs admitted. “But I was eager to hang out with my dad.” Even as he was growing more aware that he had been adopted, he was becoming more attached to his father. One day when he was about eight, he discovered a photograph of his father from his time in the Coast Guard. “He’s in the engine room, and he’s got his shirt off and looks like James Dean. It was one of those Oh wow moments for a kid. Wow, oooh, my parents were actually once very young and really good-looking.” Through cars, his father gave Steve his first exposure to electronics. “My dad did not have a deep understanding of electronics, but he’d encountered it a lot in automobiles and other things he would fix. He showed me the rudiments of electronics, and I got very interested in that.” Even more interesting were the trips to scavenge for parts. “Every weekend, there’d be a junkyard trip. We’d be looking for a generator, a carburetor, all sorts of components.” He remembered watching his father negotiate at the counter. “He was a good bargainer, because he knew better than the guys at the counter what the parts should cost.” This helped fulfill the pledge his parents made when he was adopted. “My college fund came from my dad paying $50 for a Ford Falcon or some other beat-up car that didn’t run, working on it for a few weeks, and selling it for $250—and not telling the IRS.” The Jobses’ house and the others in their neighborhood were built by the real estate developer Joseph Eichler, whose company spawned more than eleven thousand homes in various California subdivisions between 1950 and 1974. Inspired by Frank Lloyd Wright’s vision of simple modern homes for the American “everyman,” Eichler built inexpensive houses that featured floor-to-ceiling glass walls, open floor plans, exposed post-and-beam construction, concrete slab floors, and lots of sliding glass doors. “Eichler did a great thing,” Jobs said on one of our walks around the neighborhood. “His houses were smart and cheap and good. They brought clean design and simple taste to lower-income people. They had awesome little features, like radiant heating in the floors. You put carpet on them, and we had nice toasty floors when we were kids.” Jobs said that his appreciation for Eichler homes instilled in him a passion for making nicely designed products for the mass market. “I love it when you can bring really great design and simple capability to something that doesn’t cost much,” he said as he pointed out the clean elegance of the houses. “It was the original vision for Apple. That’s what we tried to do with the first Mac. That’s what we did with the iPod.” Across the street from the Jobs family lived a man who had become successful as a real estate agent. “He wasn’t that bright,” Jobs recalled, “but he seemed to be making a fortune. So my dad thought, ‘I can do that.’ He worked so hard, I remember. He took these night classes, passed the license test, and got into real estate. Then the bottom fell out of the market.” As a result, the family found itself financially strapped for a year or so while Steve was in elementary school. His mother took a job as a bookkeeper for Varian Associates, a company that made scientific instruments, and they took out a second mortgage. One day his fourth-grade teacher asked him, “What is it you don’t understand about the universe?” Jobs replied, “I don’t understand why all of a sudden my dad is so broke.” He was proud that his father never adopted a servile attitude or slick style that may have made him a better salesman. “You had to suck up to people to sell real estate, and he wasn’t good at that and it wasn’t in his nature. I admired him for that.” Paul Jobs went back to being a mechanic. His father was calm and gentle, traits that his son later praised more than emulated. He was also resolute. Jobs described one exampl What made the neighborhood different from the thousands of other spindly-tree subdivisions across America was that even the ne’er-do-wells tended to be engineers. “When we moved here, there were apricot and plum orchards on all of these corners,” Jobs recalled. “But it was beginning to boom because of military investment.” He soaked up the history of the valley and developed a yearning to play his own role. Edwin Land of Polaroid later told him about being asked by Eisenhower to help build the U-2 spy plane cameras to see how real the Soviet threat was. The film was dropped in canisters and returned to the NASA Ames Research Center in Sunnyvale, not far from where Jobs lived. “The first computer terminal I ever saw was when my dad brought me to the Ames Center,” he said. “I fell totally in love with it.” Other defense contractors sprouted nearby during the 1950s. The Lockheed Missiles and Space Division, which built submarine-launched ballistic missiles, was founded in 1956 next to the NASA Center; by the time Jobs moved to the area four years later, it employed twenty thousand people. A few hundred yards away, Westinghouse built facilities that produced tubes and electrical transformers for the missile systems. “You had all these military companies on the cutting edge,” he recalled. “It was mysterious and high-tech and made living here very exciting.” In the wake of the defense industries there arose a booming economy based on technology. Its roots stretched back to 1938, when David Packard and his new wife moved into a house in Palo Alto that had a shed where his friend Bill Hewlett was soon ensconced. The house had a garage—an appendage that would prove both useful and iconic in the valley—in which they tinkered around until they had their first product, an audio oscillator. By the 1950s, Hewlett-Packard was a fast-growing company making technical instruments. Fortunately there was a place nearby for entrepreneurs who had outgrown their garages. In a move that would help transform the area into the cradle of the tech revolution, Stanford University’s dean of engineering, Frederick Terman, created a seven-hundred-acre industrial park on university land for private companies that could commercialize the ideas of his students. Its first tenant was Varian Associates, where Clara Jobs worked. “Terman came up with this great idea that did more than anything to cause the tech industry to grow up here,” Jobs said. By the time Jobs was ten, HP had nine thousand employees and was the blue-chip company where every engineer seeking financial stability wanted to work. The most important technology for the region’s growth was, of course, the semiconductor. William Shockley, who had been one of the inventors of the transistor at Bell Labs in New Jersey, moved out to Mountain View and, in 1956, started a company to build transistors using silicon rather than the more expensive germanium that was then commonly used. But Shockley became increasingly erratic and abandoned his silicon transistor project, which led eight of his engineers—most notably Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore—to break away to form Fairchild Semiconductor. That company grew to twelve thousand employees, but it fragmented in 1968, when Noyce lost a power struggle to become CEO. He took Gordon Moore and founded a company that they called Integrated Electronics Corporation, which they soon smartly abbreviated to Intel. Their third employee was Andrew Grove, who later would grow the company by shifting its focus from memory chips to microprocessors. Within a few years there would be more than fifty companies in the area making semiconductors. The exponential growth of this industry was correlated with the phenomenon famously discovered by Moore, who in 1965 drew a graph of the speed of integrated circuits, based on the number of transistors that could be placed on a chip, and showed that it doubled about every two years, a trajectory that could be expected to continue. This was reaffirmed in 1971, when Intel was able to etch a complete central processing unit onto one chip, the Intel 4004, tronic amplifier. “So I raced home, and I told my dad that he was wrong.” “No, it needs an amplifier,” his father assured him. When Steve protested otherwise, his father said he was crazy. “It can’t work without an amplifier. There’s some trick.” “I kept saying no to my dad, telling him he had to see it, and finally he actually walked down with me and saw it. And he said, ‘Well I’ll be a bat out of hell.’” Jobs recalled the incident vividly because it was his first realization that his father did not know everything. Then a more disconcerting discovery began to dawn on him: He was smarter than his parents. He had always admired his father’s competence and savvy. “He was not an educated man, but I had always thought he was pretty damn smart. He didn’t read much, but he could do a lot. Almost everything mechanical, he could figure it out.” Yet the carbon microphone incident, Jobs said, began a jarring process of realizing that he was in fact more clever and quick than his parents. “It was a very big moment that’s burned into my mind. When I realized that I was smarter than my parents, I felt tremendous shame for having thought that. I will never forget that moment.” This discovery, he later told friends, along with the fact that he was adopted, made him feel apart—detached and separate—from both his family and the world. Another layer of awareness occurred soon after. Not only did he discover that he was brighter than his parents, but he discovered that they knew this. Paul and Clara Jobs were loving parents, and they were willing to adapt their lives to suit a son who was very smart—and also willful. They would go to great lengths to accommodate him. And soon Steve discovered this fact as well. “Both my parents got me. They felt a lot of responsibility once they sensed that I was special. They found ways to keep feeding me stuff and putting me in better schools. They were willing to defer to my needs.” So he grew up not only with a sense of having once been abandoned, but also with a sense that he was special. In his own mind, that was more important in the formation of his personality. School Even before Jobs started elementary school, his mother had taught him how to read. This, however, led to some problems once he got to school. “I was kind of bored for the first few years

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国际贸易争端 国际贸易争端,到底在争什么?未来的世界秩序,究竟长什么样?它会怎样影响你我的人生?时下人们最关心的这些问题,你都能从这里找到答案,免费关注!
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