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惨不忍睹!美股遭遇23年来最大危机!

惨不忍睹!美股遭遇23年来最大危机! 国际贸易争端
2020-03-13
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金一南点击这里陈平教授视频

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来源:蒋校长(jiangxiaozhang666)

轰隆一声巨响,一个像英国一样体量的国家消失了。

那是大盘崩裂的声音。

2020年3月9日,星期一,这是足以载入史册的一天。

美股开盘四分钟,纳斯达克和标普500一路狂泻7%的点,触发熔断(7%、13%、20三层熔断)



169. Don't let yesterday use up too much of today. 别留念昨天了,把握好今天吧。(Will Rogers) 170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up. 你不勇敢,没人替你坚强。171. If you don't build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs. 如果你没有梦想,那么你只能为别人的梦想打工。172. Beauty is all around, if you just open your heart to see. 只要你给自己机会,你会发现你的世界可以很美丽。173. The difference in winning and losing is most often...not quitting. 赢与输的差别通常是--不放弃。(华特·迪士尼) 174. I am ordinary yet unique. 我很平凡,但我独一无二。175. I like people who make me laugh in spite of myself. 我喜欢那些让我笑起来的人,就算是我不想笑的时候。176. Image a new story for your life and start living it. 为你的生命想一个全新剧本,并去倾情出演吧!177. I'd rather be a happy fool than a sad sage. 做个悲伤的智者,不如做个开心的傻子。178. The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams. 未来属于那些相信梦想之美的人。(埃莉诺·罗斯福) 179. Even if you get no applause, you should accept a curtain call gracefully and appreciate your own efforts. 即使没有人为你鼓掌,也要优雅的谢幕,感谢自己的认真付出。180. Don't let dream just be your dream. 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样。185. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. 今天的好计划胜过明天的完美计划。186. Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'! 一切皆有可能!“不可能”的意思是:“不,可能。”(奥黛丽·赫本) 187. Life isn't fair, but no matter your circumstances, you have to give it your all. 生活是不公平的,不管你的境遇如何,你只能全力以赴。188. No matter how hard it is, just keep going because you only fail when you give up. 无论多么艰难,都要继续前进,因为只有你放弃的那一刻,你才输了。     When Paul Jobs was mustered out of the Coast Guard after World War II, he made a wager with his crewmates. They had arrived in San Francisco, where their ship was decommissioned, and Paul bet that he would find himself a wife within two weeks. He was a taut, tattooed engine mechanic, six feet tall, with a passing resemblance to James Dean. But it wasn’t his looks that got him a date with Clara Hagopian, a sweet-humored daughter of Armenian immigrants. It was the fact that he and his friends had a car, unlike the group she had originally planned to go out with that evening. Ten days later, in March 1946, Paul got engaged to Clara and won his wager. It would turn out to be a happy marriage, one that lasted until death parted them more than forty years later. Paul Reinhold Jobs had been raised on a dairy farm in Germantown, Wisconsin. Even though his father was an alcoholic and sometimes abusive, Paul ended up with a gentle and calm disposition under his leathery exterior. After dropping out of high school, he wandered through the Midwest picking up work as a mechanic until, at age nineteen, he joined the Coast Guard, even though he didn’t know how to swim. He was deployed on the USS General M. C. Meigs and spent much of the war ferrying troops to Italy for General Patton. His talent as a machinist and fireman earned him commendations, but he occasionally found himself in minor trouble and never rose above the rank of seaman. Clara was born in New Jersey, where her parents had landed after fleeing the Turks in Armenia, and they moved to the Mission District of San Francisco when she was a child. She had a secret that she rarely mentioned to anyone: She had been married before, but her husband had been killed in the war. So when she met Paul Jobs on that first date, she was primed to start a new life. Clara, however, loved San Francisco, and in 1952 she convinced her husband to move back there. They got an apartment in the Sunset District facing the Pacific, just south of Golden Gate Park, and he took a job working for a finance company as a “repo man,” picking the locks of cars whose owners hadn’t paid their loans and repossessing them. He also bought, repaired, and sold some of the cars, making a decent enough living in the process. There was, however, something missing in their lives. They wanted children, but Clara had suffered an ectopic pregnancy, in which the fertilized egg was implanted in a fallopian tube rather than the uterus, and she had been unable to have any. So by 1955, after nine years of marriage, they were looking to adopt a child. Like Paul Jobs, Joanne Schieble was from a rural Wisconsin family of German heritage. Her father, Arthur Schieble, had immigrated to the outskirts of Green Bay, where he and his wife owned a mink farm and dabbled successfully in various other businesses, including real estate and photoengraving. He was very strict, especially regarding his daughter’s relationships, and he had strongly disapproved of her first love, an artist who was not a Catholic. Thus it was no surprise that he threatened to cut Joanne off completely when, as a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, she fell in love with Abdulfattah “John” Jandali, a Muslim teaching assistant from Syria. Jandali was the youngest of nine children in a prominent Syrian family. His father owned oil refineries and multiple other businesses, with large holdings in Damascus and Homs, and at one point pretty much controlled the price of wheat in the region. His mother, he later said, was a “traditional Muslim woman” who was a “conservative, obedient housewife.” Like the Schieble family, the Jandalis put a premium on education. Abdulfattah was sent to a Jesuit boarding school, even though he was Muslim, and he got an undergraduate degree at the American University in Beirut before entering the University of Wisconsin to pursue a doctoral degree in political science. In the summer of 1954, Joanne went with Abdulfattah to Syria. They spent two months in Homs, where she learned from his family to cook Syrian dishes. When they returned to Wisconsin she discovered that she was pregnant. They were both twenty-three, but they decided not to get married. Her father was dying at the time, and he had threatened to disown her if she wed Abdulfattah. Nor was abortion an easy option in a small Catholic community. So in early 1955, Joanne traveled to San Francisco, where she was taken into the care of a kindly doctor who sheltered unwed mothers, delivered their babies, and quietly arranged closed adoptions. Joanne had one requirement: Her child must be adopted by college graduates. So the doctor arranged for the baby to be placed with a lawyer and his wife. But when a boy was born—on February 24, 1955—the designated couple decided that they wanted a girl and backed out. Thus it was that the boy became the son not of a lawyer but of a high school dropout with a passion for mechanics and his salt-of-the-earth wife who was working as a bookkeeper. Paul and Clara named their new baby Steven Paul Jobs. When Joanne found out that her baby had been placed with a couple who had not even graduated from high school, she refused to sign the adoption papers. The standoff lasted weeks, even after the baby had settled into the Jobs household. Eventually Joanne relented, with the stipulation that the couple promise—indeed sign a pledge—to fund a savings account to pay for the boy’s college education. There was another reason that Joanne was balky about signing the adoption papers. Her father was about to die, and she planned to marry Jandali soon after. She held out hope, she would later tell family members, sometimes tearing up at the memory, that once they were married, she could get their 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样。baby boy back. Arthur Schieble died in August 1955, after the adoption was finalized. Just after Christmas that year, Joanne and Abdulfattah were married in St. Philip the Apostle Catholic Church in Green Bay. He got his PhD in international politics the next year, and then they had another child, a girl named Mona. After she and Jandali divorced in 1962, Joanne embarked on a dreamy and peripatetic life that her daughter, who grew up to become the acclaimed novelist Mona Simpson, would capture in her book Anywhere but Here. Because Steve’s adoption had been closed, it would be twenty years before they would all find each other. Steve Jobs knew from an early age that he was adopted. “My parents were very open with me about that,” he recalled. He had a vivid memory of sitting on the lawn of his house, when he was six or seven years old, telling the girl who lived across the street. “So does that mean your real parents didn’t want you?” the girl asked. “Lightning bolts went off in my head,” according to Jobs. “I remember running into the house, crying. And my parents said, ‘No, you have to understand.’ They were very serious and looked me straight in the eye. They said, ‘We specifically picked you out.’ Both of my parents said that and repeated it slowly for me. And they put an emphasis on every word in that sentence.” Abandoned. Chosen. Special. Those concepts became part of who Jobs was and how he regarded himself. His closest friends think that the knowledge that he was given up at birth left some scars. “I think his desire for complete control of whatever he makes derives directly from his personality and the fact that he was abandoned at birth,” said one longtime colleague, Del Yocam. “He wants to control his environment, and he sees the product as an extension of himself.” Greg Calhoun, who became close to Jobs right after college, saw another effect. “Steve talked to me a lot about being abandoned and the pain that caused,” he said. “It made him independent. He followed the beat of a different drummer, and that came from being in a different world than he was born into.” Later in life, when he was the same age his biological father had been when he abandoned him, Jobs would father and abandon a child of his own. (He eventually took responsibility for her.) Chrisann Brennan, the mother of that child, said that being put up for adoption left Jobs “full of broken glass,” and it helps to explain some of his behavior. “He who is abandoned is an abandoner,” she said. Andy Hertzfeld, who worked with Jobs at Apple in the early 1980s, is among the few who remained close to both Brennan and Jobs. “The key question about Steve is why he can’t control himself at times from being so reflexively cruel and harmful to some people,” he said. “That goes back to being abandoned at birth. The real underlying problem was the theme of abandonment in Steve’s life.” Jobs dismissed this. “There’s some notion that because I was abandoned, I worked very hard so I could do well and make my parents wish they had me back, or some such nonsense, but that’s ridiculous,” he insisted. “Knowing I was adopted may have made me feel more independent, but I have never felt abandoned. I’ve always felt special. My parents made me feel special.” He would later bristle whenever anyone referred to Paul and Clara Jobs as his “adoptive” parents or implied that they were not his “real” parents. “They were my parents 1,000%,” he said. When speaking about his biological parents, on the other hand, he was curt: “They were my sperm and egg bank. That’s not harsh, it’s just the way it was, a sperm bank thing, nothing more.” Silicon Valley The childhood that Paul and Clara Jobs created for their new son was, in many ways, a stereotype of the late 1950s. When Steve was two they adopted a girl they named Patty, and three years later they moved to a tract house in the suburbs. The finance company where Paul worked as a repo man, CIT, had transferred him down to its Palo Alto office, but he could not afford to live there, so they landed in a subdivision in Mountain View, a less expensive town just to the south. There Paul tried to pass along his love of mechanics and cars. “Steve, this is your workbench now,” he said as he marked off a section of the table in their garage. Jobs remembered being impressed by his father’s focus on craftsmanship. “I thought my dad’s sense of design was pretty good,” he said, “because he knew how to build anything. If we needed a cabinet, he would build it. When he built our fence, he gave me a hammer so I could work with him.” Fifty years later the fence still surrounds the back and side yards of the house in Mountain View. As Jobs showed it off to me, he caressed the stockade panels and recalled a lesson that his father implanted deeply in him. It was important, his father said, to craft the backs of cabinets and fences properly, even though they were hidden. “He loved doing things right. He even cared about the look of the parts you couldn’t see.” His father continued to refurbish and resell used cars, and he festooned the garage with pictures of his favorites. He would point out the detailing of the design to his son: the lines, the vents, the chrome, the trim of the seats. After work each day, he would change into his dungarees and retreat to the garage, often with Steve tagging along. “I figured I could get him nailed down with a little mechanical ability, but he really wasn’t interested in getting his hands dirty,” Paul later recalled. “He never really cared too much about m189. It requires hard work to give off an appearance of effortlessness. 你必须十分努力,才能看起来毫不费力。190. Life is like riding a bicycle.To keep your balance,you must keep moving. 人生就像骑单车,只有不断前进,才能保持平衡。(爱因斯坦) 191. Be thankful for what you have.You'll end up having more. 拥有一颗感恩的心,最终你会得到更多。192. Beauty is how you feel inside, and it reflects in your eyes. 美是一种内心的感觉,并反映在你的眼睛里。(索菲亚·罗兰) 193. Friendship doubles your joys, and divides your sorrows. 朋友的作用,就是让你快乐加倍,痛苦减半。194. When you long for something sincerely, the whole world will help you. 当你真心渴望某样东西时,整个宇宙都会来帮忙。echanical things.” “I wasn’t that into fixing cars,” Jobs admitted. “But I was eager to hang out with my dad.” Even as he was growing more aware that he had been adopted, he was becoming more attached to his father. One day when he was about eight, he discovered a photograph of his father from his time in the Coast Guard. “He’s in the engine room, and he’s got his shirt off and looks like James Dean. It was one of those Oh wow moments for a kid. Wow, oooh, my parents were actually once very young and really good-looking.” Through cars, his father gave Steve his first exposure to electronics. “My dad did not have a deep understanding of electronics, but he’d encountered it a lot in automobiles and other things he would fix. He showed me the rudiments of electronics, and I got very interested in that.” Even more interesting were the trips to scavenge for parts. “Every weekend, there’d be a junkyard trip. We’d be looking for a generator, a carburetor, all sorts of components.” He remembered watching his father negotiate at the counter. “He was a good bargainer, because he knew better than the guys at the counter what the parts should cost.” This helped fulfill the pledge his parents made when he was adopted. “My college fund came from my dad paying $50 for a Ford Falcon or some other beat-up car that didn’t run, working on it for a few weeks, and selling it for $250—and not telling the IRS.” The Jobses’ house and the others in their neighborhood were built by the real estate developer Joseph Eichler, whose company spawned more than eleven thousand homes in various California subdivisions between 1950 and 1974. Inspired by Frank Lloyd Wright’s vision of simple modern homes for the American “everyman,” Eichler built inexpensive houses that featured floor-to-ceiling glass walls, open floor plans, exposed post-and-beam construction, concrete slab floors, and lots of sliding glass doors. “Eichler did a great thing,” Jobs said on one of our walks around the neighborhood. “His houses were smart and cheap and good. They brought clean design and simple taste to lower-income people. They had awesome little features, like radiant heating in the floors. You put carpet on them, and we had nice toasty floors when we were kids.” Jobs said that his appreciation for Eichler homes instilled in him a passion for making nicely designed products for the mass market. “I love it when you can bring really great design and simple capability to something that doesn’t cost much,” he said as he pointed out the clean elegance of the houses. “It was the original vision for Apple. That’s what we tried to do with the first Mac. That’s what we did with the iPod.” Across the street from the Jobs family lived a man who had become successful as a real estate agent. “He wasn’t that bright,” Jobs recalled, “but he seemed to be making a fortune. So my dad thought, ‘I can do that.’ He worked so hard, I remember. He took these night classes, passed the license test, and got into real estate. Then the bottom fell out of the market.” As a result, the family found itself financially strapped for a year or so while Steve was in elementary school. His mother took a job as a bookkeeper for Varian Associates, a company that made scientific instruments, and they took out a second mortgage. One day his fourth-grade teacher asked him, “What is it you don’t understand about the universe?” Jobs replied, “I don’t understand why all of a sudden my dad is so broke.” He was proud that his father never adopted a servile attitude or slick style that may have made him a better salesman. “You had to suck up to people to sell real estate, and he wasn’t good at that and it wasn’t in his nature. I admired him for that.” Paul Jobs went back to being a mechanic. His father was calm and gentle, traits that his son later praised more than emulated. He was also resolute. Jobs described one exampl What made the neighborhood different from the thousands of other spindly-tree subdivisions across America was that even the ne’er-do-wells tended to be engineers. “When we moved here, there were apricot and plum orchards on all of these corners,” Jobs recalled. “But it was beginning to boom because of military investment.” He soaked up the history of the valley and developed a yearning to play his own role. Edwin Land of Polaroid later told him about being asked by Eisenhower to help build the U-2 spy plane cameras to see how real the Soviet threat was. The film was dropped in canisters and returned to the NASA Ames Research Center in Sunnyvale, not far from where Jobs lived. “The first computer terminal I ever saw was when my dad brought me to the Ames Center,” he said. “I fell totally in love with it.” Other defense contractors sprouted nearby during the 1950s. The Lockheed Missiles and Space Division, which built submarine-launched ballistic missiles, was founded in 1956 next to the NASA Center; by the time Jobs moved to the area four years later, it employed twenty thousand people. A few hundred yards away, Westinghouse built facilities that produced tubes and electrical transformers for the missile systems. “You had all these military companies on the cutting edge,” he recalled. “It was mysterious and high-tech and made living here very exciting.” In the wake of the defense industries there arose a booming economy based on technology. Its roots stretched back to 1938, when David Packard and his new wife moved into a house in Palo Alto that had a shed where his friend Bill Hewlett was soon ensconced. The house had a garage—an appendage that would prove both useful and iconic in the valley—in which they tinkered around until they had their first product, an audio oscillator. By the 1950s, Hewlett-Packard was a fast-growing company making technical instruments. Fortunately there was a place nearby for entrepreneurs who had outgrown their garages. In a move that would help transform the area into the cradle of the tech revolution, Stanford University’s dean of engineering, Frederick Terman, created a seven-hundred-acre industrial park on university land for private companies that could commercialize the ideas of his students. Its first tenant was Varian Associates, where Clara Jobs worked. “Terman came up with this great idea that did more than anything to cause the tech industry to grow up here,” Jobs said. By the time Jobs was ten, HP had nine thousand employees and was the blue-chip company where every engineer seeking financial stability wanted to work. The most important technology for the region’s growth was, of course, the semiconductor. William Shockley, who had been one of the inventors of the transistor at Bell Labs in New Jersey, moved out to Mountain View and, in 1956, started a company to build transistors using silicon rather than the more expensive germanium that was then commonly used. But Shockley became increasingly erratic and abandoned his silicon transistor project, which led eight of his engineers—most notably Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore—to break away to form Fairchild Semiconductor. That company grew to twelve thousand employees, but it fragmented in 1968, when Noyce lost a power struggle to become CEO. He took Gordon Moore and founded a company that they called Integrated Electronics Corporation, which they soon smartly abbreviated to Intel. Their third employee was Andrew Grove, who later would grow the company by shifting its focus from memory chips to microprocessors. Within a few years there would be more than fifty companies in the area making semiconductors. The exponential growth of this industry was correlated with the phenomenon famously discovered by Moore, who in 1965 drew a graph of the speed of integrated circuits, based on the number of transistors that could be placed on a chip, and showed that it doubled about every two years, a trajectory that could be expected to continue. This was reaffirmed in 1971, when Intel was able to etch a complete central processing unit onto one chip, the Intel 4004, tronic amplifier. “So I raced home, and I told my dad that he was wrong.” “No, it needs an amplifier,” his father assured him. When Steve protested otherwise, his father said he was crazy. “It can’t work without an amplifier. There’s some trick.” “I kept saying no to my dad, telling him he had to see it, and finally he actually walked down with me and saw it. And he said, ‘Well I’ll be a bat out of hell.’” Jobs recalled the incident vividly because it was his first realization that his father did not know everything. Then a more disconcerting discovery began to dawn on him: He was smarter than his parents. He had always admired his father’s competence and savvy. “He was not an educated man, but I had always thought he was pretty damn smart. He didn’t read much, but he could do a lot. Almost everything mechanical, he could figure it out.” Yet the carbon microphone incident, Jobs said, began a jarring process of realizing that he was in fact more clever and quick than his parents. “It was a very big moment that’s burned into my mind. When I realized that I was smarter than my parents, I felt tremendous shame for having thought that. I will never forget that moment.” This discovery, he later told friends, along with the fact that he was adopted, made him feel apart—detached and separate—from both his family and the world. Another layer of awareness occurred soon after. Not only did he discover that he was brighter than his parents, but he discovered that they knew this. Paul and Clara Jobs were loving parents, and they were willing to adapt their lives to suit a son who was very smart—and also willful. They would go to great lengths to accommodate him. And soon Steve discovered this fact as well. “Both my parents got me. They felt a lot of responsibility once they sensed that I was special. They found ways to keep feeding me stuff and putting me in better schools. They were willing to defer to my needs.” So he grew up not only with a sense of having once been abandoned, but also with a sense that he was special. In his own mind, that was more important in the formation of his personality. School Even before Jobs started elementary school, his mother had taught him how to read. This, however, led to some problems once he got to school. “I was kind of bored for the first few years

这是23年未见的大场面,上一次熔断还要追溯到1997年10月27日。

截止到收盘,前一天总市值高达44万亿美元的美股跌去7%直接蒸发掉英国体量的GDP,不过好在星期二三大股指全部反弹,又涨回来一个意大利的体量。

这么一算的话,其实也就损失了一个广东省的GDP。

大跌之后往往容易出现报复性反弹,1997年的熔断后,第二天也出现了增长。

一时的涨跌并不是我们需要关心的事情,真正值得我们关心的事情藏在美股背后。

我们需要做的事情是穿破迷雾探寻本质。

1.“虚不受补”的美股

美股为什么会崩?

表面上来看,美股熔断的原因是来自于疫情爆发和油价下跌带来的双重恐慌。

可实际上,在3月初,美联储刚刚宣布降息,以此应对疫情给经济带来的冲击,保持经济的增长强劲。

在经济调控上,人们经常会听到一个词:降息。

把钱存入银行的收益减少,所以人们就会把钱拿出来用于投资或消费,从而刺激经济的发展,股市也将从中获益。

但降息有用么?强刺激有用么?

这次美联储的突然降息,实际上是加剧了市场的恐慌。

一个病人感觉身体不舒服,去了医院之后,医生给他用最好的仪器检查一遍,完了家里人给他开了一大堆最贵的药,和他说:我们肯定不惜一切给你治好病。

这病人猛的一听应该挺高兴,马上寻思过味来,当场就得崩溃。

为什么?被吓着了。

▲ 早在3月9号之前,“被吓着了的”美股就开始了一周的小幅下跌

中国有一个词叫“虚不受补”,一个身体特别弱的人,用人参虫草这些猛药给他,他的身体承受不住。

美股就是这个虚不受补的病人。

美股为什么这么“虚”,这事儿得从头解释一下。

2.降息守不住美股

首先是降息这件事。

08金融危机之后,美联储实施了长达8年的零利率时代。等到2015年时,美联储开始缓步加息。

简单来讲,降息是为了将存款变为消费,同时鼓励贷款,刺激经济增长;加息是为了鼓励存款,抑制经济过热,防止通货膨胀等。

加息与降息没有绝对的好坏,都是针对不同经济形势下的宏观调控,但有人不同意加息,就是他们的总统先生。

2019年,美联储迫于特朗普的压力,三次下调联邦基金利率,但即便如此,特朗普还是不满意。

▲ 福克斯商业:美联储的加息阻碍了美国经济增长(图源观察者)

他认为美国的经济还是不够热,还需要进一步降息刺激。

“美联储太让我失望了,我们现在应该有一个更低的利率。”

“如果鲍威尔(美联储主席)当初没有紧缩加息,美国今天GDP至少会再高1.5个点”

特朗普支持降息的理由很简单。

第一是贸易的因素,美联储加息将导致美元的升值(美元回流,市面上的美元供不应求,所以汇率升高),这将直接影响特朗普贸易战的大战略。

第二是降息有助于拉升股市,特朗普在选民面前最骄傲的就是他的经济成绩,而股市是美国经济的晴雨表,一旦股市暴跌,特朗普的连任将面临最大的危机。

▲  特朗普推特:如果有一天道琼斯指数单日下跌超过1000点,那么时任美国总统就应该被装进加农炮射向太阳,不能有任何借口

从2015年12月16日到2018年12月22日,美联储加息9次,从2019年7月31日到10月30日,美联储连续降息3次。

要这么一看的话,美联储在这个周期内还是以加息为主啊?

但实际上,美联储每一次加息的平均周期是4个月,而每一次降息的平均周期是1月。这充分暴露出美国的经济已经到了“山穷水尽”的地步

在经济增长几乎陷入停滞的临界点上,加息是小心翼翼的,需要给市场更长的时间去消化,降息是慌不迭地的,需要给经济的刺激越快越好。

加息对经济的伤害是立竿见影的,美国就像是年老体衰的大象,哪一鞭子抽狠了,大象就容易轰然倒塌。

降息对经济的刺激是长期显现的,美国又像是筋疲力尽的老牛,再怎么抽它,老牛往前动的速度都特别缓慢。

▲ GDP增速和联邦基金利率几乎是同步走低,降息对经济刺激其实非常有限

美联储想优雅的去掉泡沫,但特朗普从来只关注眼下,一旦经济热度下降,他马上就想着降息给美国的经济打鸡血。

随着新冠疫情在全球蔓延开来,美国经济又面临着下行压力,特朗普只能继续以降息的方式刺激经济。

所以在3月3日那天,美联储大幅度的降息50个基点,此前十余年间调整单位均为25个基点(0.25%),可见特普朗是真急了,美联储也是真慌了。

而降息50个基点(0.5%)对美国来说还远远不够。

高盛首席经济学家Hatzius在报告中表示,美联储将在三月和四月继续下调利息,最终使利息回到0-0.25%的历史低位。

摩根士大通的Feroli更激进的表示,美联储将在3.17-18日的会议前降息100个基点(1%),重回0-0.25%的零利率时代。

▲ 3月10号,特朗普继续发推施压美联储,要求降息

可这又能救得了美国么?

3.印钞再印钞,举债再举债

刚刚我们提到了降息刺激经济。

但降息是一种被动的经济调控方式,假如把利息降到零了还是不能从人民手中抠出来钱的话,就要同步第二个方法。

增加货币的供应量,也就是咱们常说的“印钞”。

当然,这笔钱不是随便印出来的,而是管未来借来的。“通过购入国债的方法增加短期货币供应量”,也就是说,这笔多出来的钱在今天完成刺激经济的使命后,是要在明天再还回去的。

至少,经济学家和政客是这么告诉我们的。但至于怎么还上,能不能还上,他们没说。

在他们看来,理想情况下的债务,是可以借来明天的钱投资今天,以换得收益的更大化。

比如大学生的助学贷款,现在的借贷是为了投资自己,以求在完成学业后拥有更好的收入,用在正当地方的、一定程度的债务是个好东西。

所以,在“良好”的初衷下,西方经济学家们发明了“量化宽松”政策,即把利息降到极低的同时,通过购入国债的方式增加货币供应

利息低一点,再低一点。

印钱快一点,再快一点。

这就是美国现在在做的事情。

但量化宽松有一个隐患,如果收入的增长速度并不能超过债务增长的速度,那破产只是个时间问题。

假如用上了量化宽松,发现经济增长仍然不如预期,那如何才能把债还上?

答案是继续量化宽松。

是的你没有看错,就是继续寅吃卯粮

最典型的例子就是美国。

2008年美国金融危机期间,时任美联储主席的伯南克将联邦基金的利率降到0-0.25%区间,美国这种接近零的利率维系了长达八年之久。

▲ 图源自腾讯新闻,今日话题

在市场规律下,世界上没有任何一种商品可以以零价格出租和出售,而西方各国的央行竟然在零利率甚至是负利率借贷,就差求着资本来借钱了。

同时,连续六年上调国债上限,到2013年时,美国国债已经突破19万亿美元,是当年GDP的107%。

这个道理很好理解:我借了一笔钱做生意,结果破产了还不上钱,这时候我只能再借一笔钱,希望能东山再起,只有这样才能还上这笔钱。

可现在的问题是,美国根本没有能力再还上这笔钱了,在过去的4年里,美国的财政赤字分别是6660亿美元、7790亿美元、8668亿美元、9840亿美元。

没有能力还钱,就只能在继续借钱。

美国的国债就这样成为了永动机,不停的发新债还旧债,一轮又一轮的透支明天。

美国的国债规模从2008年的10万亿美元,增长到现在的23万亿美元之巨,而同期的GDP增速却保持低迷。

与此同时,在过去的十年间,美国超发了6.2万亿基础货币,却将通货膨胀率常年控制在2%左右。

见鬼了,钱都哪儿去了?

十年的时间里,美国纳斯达克指数从2000涨到了8000,道琼斯指数从6000多点涨到暴跌前的接近30000点,什么基础货币增速、什么国债涨幅,都远远落后于美股的狂飙速度。

▲ 过去十年内,牛气冲天的美股

至于美国的GDP增速,那简直是更不值一提的弟中弟。

美股成为了资金流入的蓄水池。量化宽松根本没有促使资金流入实体,反而大量资金滞留在金融系统。

美股暴涨是基于估值扩张,而不是盈利能力的改善,有太多本不应属于股市的钱被砸了进去,堆起厚厚的泡沫。

你从银行借了一笔钱之后想开个小厂子,结果发现去炒股、去买房,哪个来钱都比干实业快,你会怎么选择?

注意我们在前文提到“好债务”时的两个限定条件,用在正当地方的、一定程度的。

但是美国现在都不满足。

美国三产占GDP增加值接近87.5%,产业空心化极其严重,金融业彻底将实体经济绑架,所以低利率刺激的贷款根本轮不到进入实体便被吸收进资本市场,美联储便只能一轮又一轮被动的减息放债。

最终形成恶性循环。

山顶上有一块地大旱,可每一次天降大雨水都会流到山下,山上的旱情依旧严重,但要想缓解旱情,就必须要下雨,久而久之,大家就从中悟出了一句谚语——旱的旱死,涝的涝死。

这就是美国的现状(西方发达国家也有这个问题)

所有人都知道债务绝不可能堆到天上去,但所有人都沉浸在烈火烹油的股市中无法自拔。

所有人都知道泡沫是一定会破的,但所有人都不能抵抗住泡沫膨胀时的绝美景象。

就像列宁那句话说的那样:为了利益,资本可以出卖绞死自己的绳子。

4.病入膏肓的美国

就现在的情况而言,没有人能为美国的经济续命。

一个世界第一的超级大国,一个GDP总量占全世界四分之一的巨无霸,制造业占经济比重不足五分之一。

金融业绑架着整个国内的经济,产业结构已经完全畸形,这就是美国现在最大的问题。

美联储所代表的的华尔街巨鳄的利益,和特朗普所代表的中产工人阶级,在根本利益上是无法调和的。

▲ 特朗普与美国工人在一起

特朗普想着让美国再次伟大,是立足与实业的,他一轮又一轮的降息,一次又一次的举债,是真的想振兴美国的制造业,让失业的工人回到车间,让失落的中产光荣起来。

但是工业需要地基,需要基础资金的投入,需要完善的产业集群,更需要勤劳踏实的工人。

已经过惯了金融+大炮日子的美国上层,已经在优渥的社会福利中彻底堕落的美国工人,根本不可能成为特朗普的左膀右臂。

美国已经积重难返,所以特朗普只能上蹿下跳的将压力转移到外部,退群、加关税、收保护费、打贸易战,这都是不得已而为之。

我们总在抨击特朗普,可实际上,可恨之人,也必有可怜之处。

特朗普的口号是“让美国再次伟大”,但实际上现在的美国,衰落已经不可避免。

如何才能拯救美国?这个问题就像是在问“如何才能挽救即将败光家底的福贵少爷”?

给他更多的钱么?不行,给他多少他去赌多少。

给他一份新家业让他重头再来么?不行,他照样把家业给卖了继续去赌。

真正的做法是什么?是让福贵彻底破产之后给他扔到底层,让他一点一点认识到人间疾苦赚钱辛酸。

然后福贵少爷才能认识到:我得赚一点辛苦钱,这才是我的命。

美国和福贵少爷一样,需要的不是续命,是不破不立,是劫后重生。

踏踏实实的赚辛苦钱,美利坚曾经也是那个吃苦耐劳的勤快小伙啊。

5.以史为鉴,新王当立

让我们把时钟拨回到1929年的大萧条。

▲ 大萧条时期的美国街头,排队等救济的美国人

股市暴跌让美国一夜崩溃。到1933年,86000家企业破产,5500家银行倒闭,失业人数从不足150万人(1929年)飙升到1700万人,经济水平倒退到1913年。

然后,他们等来了一个坐在轮椅上的巨人。

1933年,罗斯福当选美国第32任总统,推出了他的“罗斯福新政”,其中最核心的是《全国工业复兴法》。 

以工带振,成为增加就业刺激生产的重要手段。

“使人们能够重返工作,使我们的企业重新活跃起来”,罗斯福振臂一挥,无数美国人群起响应。

从1933年到1939年,罗斯福投资180亿美元,修建1000座机场,12000多个运动场、800多座学校医院,开辟了740多万亩国有园林和国有公园。

还有田纳西大坝,由美国政府直接投资、兴建、管理,无数下岗工人在这里和田纳西州迎来了新生。

▲ 雄伟的田纳西大坝

无数美国人用双手扛起了美国的经济,抑制了法西斯主义在北美的抬头,更为二战的胜利打下了坚实的底子。

那是美国最荣耀的辉煌时刻。

是罗斯福救了美国,也是美国自己救了自己。

那时的美国,有世界上最强大的工业实力,有一亿两千万人口,有九百多万广袤的土地。

工业意味着生产能力,人口意味着消费潜力,土地意味着基建需求。

而放眼今天的世界,中国站在了当年美国的位置上。

41个工业大类共计666个工业小类,中国是全世界唯一拥有联合国产业分类中所列全部工业门类的国家。

全世界500多种主要工业产品,其中超过220种中国的产量都是世界第一;

2018年工业增加值3.6万亿美元,从2010年开始便雄踞世界第一。


我们就是全球综合实力最强大的工业国家。

除了台面上的优势,我们更有所有发达国家所不具备的潜力。

超过9亿的适龄劳动人口,4亿迈入中等收入的消费群体,不到60%的城镇化率,等待基建投资的中西部地区......

这大把的潜力逐步兑现出来后,全球经济的执牛耳者,唯有中国。

▲ 25万亿新基建上马

当全球经济从增量争夺转为存量博弈时,不会再有哪个国家像几十年前年前靠着抱大腿、搭便车便能崛起。

一票发达国家GDP增速已经降至一点几零点几,甚至出现负增长;发展中国家的佼佼者印度,现在连5%都守不住。

在世界范围内的生产力获得爆发性增长之前,注定只有少数的国家才能继续体面下去,继续强大下去。

有巨大的内需,才有持续发展的潜力;有技术的基础,才有能力将潜力兑现。

放眼全世界,兼具两者的,唯有中国。

属于美国的时代,大幕正在缓缓合围落下。

一个新的世界格局,即将在旧势力的土崩瓦解之后巍然浮现。

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