[方达金融] 送猪迎鼠 焦点将由中美贸易战转为企业盈利
持续近两年的中美贸易战，终在上周签署第一阶段贸易协议，而第二阶段协议亦预料不会在11月美国总统大选前达成。踏入鼠年，市场焦点将由中美关系转移至各国的经济表现及企业盈利。
2019年，美股不断创新高，大部份个股的估值已变得昂贵，加上数据显示部分工业已陷入萎缩，预期经济增长将放缓。
本港方面，港股在2019年下半年因社会动荡而持续受压，相信相关影响将会延续至2020年上半年。
在预期经济增长放缓下，新一年我们建议「选股不选市」的策略，选择有盈利增长支撑的企业。此外，2020年焦点在于新经济板块，5G概念股及金融科技股将是新一年增长的动力。投资者亦可留意中资科技股「染蓝」的动态，捕捉投资机会。
The First Phase of Sino-US Trade Deal was finally signed after two years of negotiations. Given the Second Phase Trade Deal will not be reached before the US president election in November, the market focus will shift to company earnings in the Year of the Rat.
In 2019, US stocks kept hitting record high, the valuations of most US stocks have appeared stretched. In addition, data shows that US manufacturing industry is now shrinking, resulting in an expectation of economic slowdown in 2020.
Besides, HSI has underperformed relative to the other main markets in 2019 due to the eruption of social activity in Hong Kong. Such impacts may continue in the first half of 2020.
In the Year of the Rat, we recommend a strategy of “selecting stocks rather than timing the market”, and focus on companies that are supported by earnings. In addition, the focus theme of 2020 will on the new economy sector, 5G beneficiary stocks and fintech stocks that we expect will drive economic growth in the new year. Investors are also suggested to keep abreast of the news on whether Chinese technology stocks can be included into the HSI in order to capture investment opportunities.
