[方达金融] 波动下的资产配置
- 自新型肺炎疫情爆发后，各资产市场一直反复上落，本文将探讨我们对各资产市场的看法，帮客户在波幅中寻找机会。
- 股票市场方面，我们预期未来数周仍然波动，但我们相信不同板块将有不同程度的影响，建议选择受疫情影响较小的板块。主业务与人流相关的板块将首当其冲受到波及，包括交通、零售、饮食、休闲及博彩业等。相反，疫情对物管、新经济及公用电讯股的收入影响较小，建议客户进行板块轮动。
- 债券市场方面，政府债券风险低，但客户须注意其现时收益率并不高，不是博取回报的资产，建议客户选择流动性高的短期政府债作短暂持有。高息债券方面，中国多地银监局虽已放宽对银行的考核要求，我们此前担心的债券违约危机或会延迟爆破，但此危机仍然存在，不建议买入年期长的高息债券。
- 商品市场方面，市场担心疫情影响经济，油价由中国公布疫情起(20/1)已回落，WTI 原油期货价格及布兰特原油期货价格分别由59美元及66美元每桶跌至现时50美元及55美元每桶。油价目前已跌至支持位，加上油组(OPEC)正商讨加大减产，我们相信油价下行空间有限。
- Large fluctuations are still present in different asset markets since the outbreak of Coronavirus. In this article, we will discuss our views on stock, bond and commodity markets, hoping to help investors find opportunities in the volatile environment.
- For stock market, we expect that it will continue to fluctuate in the next few weeks, but we believe that the degrees of impact will varies among industries. Companies whose main business is related to people, including transportation, retail, catering, leisure and gaming, are the first to be affected. On the contrary, the impact of Coronavirus on the business and revenue of property management industry, new economy and public telecommunication firms are limited. Therefore, investors are recommended to conduct sector rotation.
- For bond market, government bonds are low risk, but investors must pay attention that their current yields are low, and they are not deemed as an asset to pursue returns. In short term, it is recommended to hold short-term government bonds. Regarding high-yield bonds, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission have relaxed their assessment requirements on banks, the crisis of bond default is postponed, but not resolved. As such, long-dated high yield bonds should be avoided.
- For commodity market, the concern is that the outbreak of Coronavirus will affect the economic growth of Asian countries, or even globally. Oil prices have fallen since China announced the outbreak of Coronavirus (Jan 20). The prices of WTI crude oil futures and Brent oil futures have fallen from US $ 59 and US $ 66 to US $ 50 and $ 55 per barrel respectively. As oil prices have now fallen to the supporting level, and OPEC is discussing to cut oil production further, we believe that the downside risk of oil prices is limited.
