[ 方达金融 ]本月反弹可期 惟需慎防不明朗因素-2019-10-02
根据统计，过去10年港股在10月份有8次录得升市，平均月度升幅达5.1%。再者，若第三季录得较大累积跌幅，紧随的10月份反弹力度亦较大。恒指于2011年及2015年第三季录得超过20%跌幅，紧随的10月分别反弹12.9%及8.6%。从数据推测，今年第三季恒指累计跌8.6%，不排除本月出现反弹机会。
不过，本月不明朗因素较多，包括市场对新一轮中美贸谈不抱乐观态度，英国硬脱欧逐步迫近；内地方面，人民银行刚于上月全面降准，预料本月未有大规模刺激措施推出。另外，预期本地紧张局势持续，亦影响整体投资气氛。
今明两年恒指市盈率分别为10倍及9.8倍，估值低于过去5年平均值约1个标准差。估值上再下跌空间不大，而技术上重要支持点为去10月低位24,500点。策略上建议增加配置具抗跌能力股票，若恒指跌至24,500点可吸纳高啤打值股票博反弹。
Statistically, HSI has rallied 8 out of 10 times in October with the average monthly return 5.1%. In addition, rebounds in the following October were stronger if the preceding quarter experienced a deeper decline: HSI tumbled over 20% in 3Q 2011 and 2015 but rallied 12.9% and 8.6% respectively in the following months. From the historical data, there is a decent probability of HSI going up after 8.6% down in 3Q this year.
However, uncertainties remain in this month, including the unfavorable outlook towards the US-China trade talk and the forthcoming potential no-deal Brexit. In China, we don't expect another round of sizable easing measures after the rate cut in reserve required ratio (RRR) for all banks by the People's Bank of China (PBOC). Moreover, the intensified domestic protest also hurt the market sentiment.
HSI estimated P/E ratio for FY2019 and FY2020 are 10x and 9.8x respectively, and one standard deviation below its 5-year historical mean. The valuation suggests there is no much room for further downside while the next supporting level points to 24,500 from the technical point of view. Strategically, we suggest allocating to defensive stocks but prepare switching to high beta stocks once HSI tests 24,500 points.
参考数据:
彭博
