在五天的时间里价格翻了⼀番后,油价涨势不再
Diamondback,Parsley Energy成为最新减产的美国钻井商
WTI期货在周二上涨20%后下跌约2%
在五天内价格翻了⼀番之后,石油的涨势已不复存在,先前因减产而得到缓解的对供应过剩的担忧,现在被长远且不确定何时复苏的恐惧抵消了。
在亚洲市场,纽约期货价格在周二上涨20%,以近⼀个月来的最高水平收盘后,跌至24美元/桶。Diamondback Energy Inc.和 Parsley Energy Inc.成为最新减产页岩气的美国钻井商。尽管他们表⽰,如果油价升至30美元/桶以上,他们将考虑恢复产量。
从5月1日起,欧佩克+开始实施每天只能生产970万桶的产量遏制措施,这有助缓解市场对世界将耗尽原油和燃料存储空间的担忧。摩根⼠丹利(Morgan Stanley)称,尽管市场可能在数周内仍将供过于求,供应过剩的局面可能已经到头了。
尽管石油市场最坏的情况可能已经过去,但大多数分析家都不认为⼀年内能看到消费反弹至新冠病毒肆虐前的水平,甚至有人怀疑消费反弹的情况是否会发生。美国重新开放可能引发的第二次病毒浪潮的风险不能小看,而华盛顿和北京之间的关系恶化也将阻碍全球经济复苏。
截⾄新加坡时间上午9:26,纽约商品交易所6月份交割的WTI原油期货价格下跌1.6%,至 24.16美元/桶。6月的WTI原油现在比7月便宜2美元,而上周初6月的WTI原油比7月便宜超过5美元,表明市场对供应过剩的担忧有所缓解。
ICE期货欧洲交易所7月份交割的布伦特原油期货价格下跌0.9%,至30.68美元/桶。周二布伦特原油上涨14%,三周来首次以高于30美元/桶的价格收盘。
曾在4月份油价处于曲线前端之前创下有史以来最好记录的对冲基金韦斯特贝克资本管理公司(Westbeck Capital Management)说,目前看原油的牛市行情“非常出色。” 该基金称,四月份的需求损失被高估了,倒闭事件发生的速度比预期要快。
美国石油协会报道,据知情⼈⼠透露,上周美国原油库存上涨了844万桶。如果能源信息管理局(EnergyInformationAdministration) 证实了截至周三的数据,这将是3月20日至本周以来的最小增幅。API称,俄克拉荷马州库欣的原油供应增加了268万桶。
翻译原文
Oil Rally Runs Out of Steam After Prices Doubled Over Five Days
Diamondback, Parsley Energy latest U.S. drillers to cut output
WTI futures decline around 2% after jumping 20% on Tuesday
Oil’s rally ran out of steam—after prices doubled over five days—as optimism that output cuts are easing the supply glut was balanced by trepidation over what promises to be a long and uncertain recovery.
Futures in New York fell toward $24 a barrel in Asian trading after surging 20% on Tuesday to close at the highest level in almost a month. Diamondback Energy Inc. and Parsley Energy Inc. became the latest U.S. drillers to cut production in the country’s biggest shale fields, although they said they would consider restoring output if prices rose above $30 a barrel.
OPEC+ began implementing 9.7 million barrels per day of production curbs on May 1, helping to ease fears the world will run out of storage space for crude and fuels. The supply glut has probably hit its apex, according to Morgan Stanley, though the market will likely remain oversupplied for several weeks.
While it’s possible the worst is over for oil markets, most analysts don’t see a rebound to pre-virus levels of consumption for at least a year, with some questioning if it will ever happen. The risk of a second virus wave in the U.S. as states reopen can’t be discounted, while deteriorating relations between Washington and Beijing will also hamper the global recovery.
West Texas Intermediate for June delivery fell 1.6% to $24.16 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 9:26 a.m. in Singapore. WTI for June is now around $2 cheaper than for July, compared with more than $5 early last week suggesting concerns about over-supply have eased.
Brent for July settlement declined 0.9% to $30.68 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. It jumped 14% on Tuesday to close above $30 a barrel for the first time in three weeks.
Hedge fund Westbeck Capital Management, which posted its best ever month in April after being short oil prices in the front of the curve, said the bull case for crude is now “simply exceptional.” April demand losses were overestimated and shut-ins are happening faster than anticipated, the fund said.
U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 8.44 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute reported, according to people familiar with the data. That would be the smallest increase since the week through March 20 if confirmed by Energy Information Administration figures due Wednesday. Supplies at the storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, rose by 2.68 million barrels, the API said.
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翻译整理:吴雯琪
设计排版:沈佳敏
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