专栏：巴基斯坦卢比-南亚最廉价的货币

专栏：巴基斯坦卢比-南亚最廉价的货币

10月10日消息，美元兑巴基斯坦卢比盘中快速上涨，涨幅6.72%，截止15:46，报132.5。

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has currently projected Pakistan’s current account deficit will contract from 5.9 percent of GDP in 2018 (the worst in emerging markets) to 5.3 percent of GDP in 2019 (again the worst in EM) 

国际货币基金组织（IMF）目前预计，巴基斯坦的账户赤字将从2018年的5.9％（新兴市场最差）收缩至2019年GDP的5.3％（同样是新兴市场的最差）

LAHORE: The Pakistani rupee is said to be the cheapest currency in South Asia, according to Renaissance Capital.

In a report shared with Profit, Renaissance Capital says Pakistan’s most recent devaluation takes the rupee to just 4 percent below its long-term average rate (1995-2018). 

拉合尔：根据Renaissance Capital的数据，巴基斯坦卢比成为南亚地区最廉价的货币。在Renaissance Capital公布的一份报告中显示，巴基斯坦卢比近期大幅度贬值，使得卢比比长期平均汇率（1995-2018）低4％。

The PKR has never been more than 13 percent weak (PKR147 equivalent) to its real effective exchange rate (REER) average rate since 1995 but may beat that in coming months, Renaissance Capital predicted.

Renaissance Capital considers Pakistan among the three vulnerable emerging markets alongside Turkey and Argentina and one investor told them the IMF is looking for rupee at Rs147 to a dollar – which would take it to a 13 percent discount to the long-term average rate.

       Renaissance Capital预测，PKR自1995年以来的实际有效汇率（REER）平均汇率从未超过13％（相当于PKR147），但可能会在未来几个月内超过这个水平。

       Renaissance Capital认为巴基斯坦是继土耳其和阿根廷之后，第三个最脆弱的新兴市场之一，一位投资者告诉他们国际货币基金组织正在寻求卢比147卢比兑换1美元 - 这将使其与长期平均利率相比折扣13％。

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has currently projected Pakistan’s current account deficit will contract from 5.9 percent of GDP in 2018 (the worst in emerging markets) to 5.3 percent of GDP in 2019 (again the worst in EM).

And these projections from the IMF don’t assume an IMF deal, significant fiscal tightening or major currency depreciation, explained Renaissance Capital. 

        国际货币基金组织（IMF）目前预测，巴基斯坦的经常账户赤字将从2018年的5.9％（新兴市场最差）收缩至2019年的5.3％（再次成为新兴市场最差）。

       Renaissance Capital解释说，国际货币基金组织的这些预测并未包含国际货币基金组织的协议，重大财政紧缩或主要货币贬值等假设。

Moreover, the IMF is currently projecting the budget deficit to widen from 5.7 percent of GDP in 2017 to 6.5 percent of GDP in 2018 and 6.9 percent of GDP in 2019.

The report said, “Argentina has a currency that is now 20 percent cheap to fair value, and the IMF assumes this will already help reduce its current account deficit from 4.9 percent of GDP in 2017 to 3.7 percent of GDP in 2018 and 3.2 percent of GDP in 2019.” 

       此外，国际货币基金组织目前预测预算赤字将从2017年的5.7％扩大到2018年的6.5％和2019年的GDP的6.9％。

       该报告称，“阿根廷的货币现在比公允价值便宜20％，国际货币基金组织认为这将有助于将其经常账户赤字从2017年的4.9％减少到2018年的3.7％和3.2％的 国内生产总值在2019.”

However, Renaissance Capital believes to reach Argentina’s level of undervaluation would require the PKR to go around Rs160 to a dollar.

It cautioned, “Turkey has a currency that is about 40 percent cheap to its long-term average, and the IMF assumes the CA deficit will shrink from 5.7 percent of GDP in 2018 to 1.4 percent of GDP in 2019.

To get to this extreme level, would require the PKR to weaken to around Rs210.” 

       然而，Renaissance Capital如果达到阿根廷的贬值水平将要求PKR大约为160卢比兑1美元。

      该报告告诫说，“土耳其的货币长期平均价格便宜约40％，国际货币基金组织认为，加州的赤字将从2018年的5.7％萎缩到2019年的1.4％。要达到这个极端水平，需要将PKR削弱到大约210卢比。

On Tuesday, the central bank had allowed the rupee to depreciate by a record 7.5 percent or Rs9.371 against the dollar.

According to the central bank, the movement broadly reflected the current account dynamics and also the demand-supply gap in the foreign exchange market.

It said the increase in oil import bill due to rising global oil prices had exerted pressure in the foreign exchange market. 

       周二，央行允许卢比兑美元贬值7.5％或9.771卢比。据央行称，此举反映了经常账户动态以及外汇市场的供需缺口。它表示，由于全球油价上涨，石油进口费用的增加给外汇市场带来了压力。

The central bank believes that this adjustment in the exchange rate along with the lagged impact of recent hikes in the policy rate, and other policy measures to contain imports would correct the imbalances in the external account.

This was the fifth devaluation of the rupee since December 2017, which has seen the local currency losing a cumulative 26 percent of its value against the greenback. 

       央行认为，汇率的这种调整以及近期政策利率上调的滞后影响以及其他遏制进口的政策措施将纠正外部账户的不平衡。

      这是自2017年12月以来卢比的第五次贬值，当地货币兑美元累计损失26％的价值。

A report published by World Bank on Sunday said despite a modest rebound recently, there was a 10 percent depreciation compared to the beginning of the year and a 14 percent depreciation compared to one year before.

According to reports, IMF and Pakistan had disagreed over the exchange rate parity, as the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) believed the exchange rate of Rs 137 to a US dollar by end of the current financial year 2018-19 would be enough to address the challenges. 

      世界银行周日发布的一份报告称，尽管最近温和反弹，但与年初相比，折旧率为10％，与一年前相比折旧率为14％。

       据报道，国际货币基金组织和巴基斯坦对汇率平价持不同意见，因为巴基斯坦国家银行（SBP）认为，到2018 - 19年当前财政年度结束时汇率为137卢比兑美元将足以解决 挑战。

According to sources, IMF’s determination was to the contrary and they wanted the rupee to be traded above Rs 145 to a dollar.

Pakistan has been facing a crisis on the external front, with burgeoning trade & current account deficits and depleting foreign exchange reserves.

Pakistan’s gross external financing requirement has been projected at $22-25 billion for the current financial year FY19. 

       据消息人士透露，国际货币基金组织的决心恰恰相反，他们希望卢比的交易价格高于145卢比兑换1美元。

       巴基斯坦一直面临外部危机，贸易和经常账户赤字迅速增加，外汇储备耗尽。在2019财政年度，巴基斯坦的外部融资总需求预计为220-250亿美元。

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