广发证券首席经济学家沈明高：消费增长将推动中国经济发展

GROWING CONSUMPTION WILL DRIVE CHINA GROWTH

消费增长将推动中国经济发展

Q&A: Dr. Shen Minggao, Chief Economist, GF Securities

Q&A: 沈明高博士，广发证券首席经济学家

As one of China’s most influential securities companies and a leader in investment banking and asset management, GF Securities has unique insights on what is arguably the world’s most important economy. The company is pursuing an ambitious international strategy that includes globally integrated services. For example, the company is vigorously expanding its FICC business, and continues to build out its FICC investment platform, mainly through GF Global Capital, its indirectly wholly owned subsidiary, with assets allocated to 20 countries and regions, including Asia, Europe, and the U.S., and covering diversified investment fields, including, among others, bonds and structured products. The company has also actively developed counterparties of cross-border underlying assets, and was the first securities firm to conduct OTC options transactions linked with overseas underlying assets under the Securities Association of China agreement.

作为中国最有影响力的证券公司之一，投资银行和资产管理业中的佼佼者，广发证券对这个世界上最重要的经济体具有独到的见解。公司正在推行一项雄心勃勃的国际化战略，其中包括提供全球综合服务。例如公司通过间接全资持股的子公司广发全球资本搭建FICC投资平台，资产配置覆盖亚洲、欧洲及美国在内的20 个国家和地区，涵盖债券、结构化产品等多元化的投资领域；公司还积极拓展跨境标的交易对手，成为境内首家在SAC协议项下开展挂钩境外标的场外期权交易的证券公司。

Here, the firm’s new chief economist, Dr. Shen Minggao, shares his thoughts on growth potential in China.

在本文中，广发证券新任首席经济学家沈明高博士分享了他对中国增长潜力的看法。

China wants to open the door wider than ever before to foreign investment, but currency is a challenge. Do you see this changing?

Q: 中国比以往任何时候都更希望对外资开放，但人民币汇率仍然是一个挑战。 您觉得很快会看到有变化的迹象吗？

Renminbi depreciation, with weak growth in the background, and capital control are two major concerns for foreign investors investing into the Chinese market. Though A shares are to be included in MSCI, these concerns still exist, for short-term investors in particular. Some kind of market clearing or short-term pain is expected in China, though investors may have different opinions on the scale and intensity.

A：在增长疲软的背景下，人民币贬值和资本管制是外商投资中国市场的两大疑虑主因。虽然A股将被纳入MSCI，但对于短期投资者来说，这些担忧仍然存在。投资者预料，中国经济从旧常态向新常态转型的过程中，会出现短痛或市场调整，尽管对于时间、规模和强度会有不同的看法。

The Chinese government attaches great importance to stability. It has no intention of compromising the GDP growth target of 6.5 percent. As a result, market clearing has continuously been delayed. This issue is self-perpetuating; the fear of renminbi depreciation results in stricter capital control, and thus less willingness to enter the market, which then leads markets to greater fear of further depreciation pressure. Two possibilities will help break the cycle. First, the market clears and investors think the downside risks are manageable and start to enter the market. Second, the government takes effective measures to make the negative effects controllable during the market clearing. If reform supports are there, meaning the downside risks are manageable, investors may start to show some interest even before the market clearing.

中国政府高度重视稳定，无意对6.5％的GDP增长目标作出让步。因此，市场出清不断被推迟。有意思的是，这个问题可能是自我循环强化的：政府对人民币贬值的担心导致了更严格的资本管制，因此投资者进入中国市场投资的意愿不足，进而市场更加担心人民币进一步贬值。有两种可能将有助于打破这一循环：首先，让市场出清，当投资者认为下行风险是可控时开始进入市场。第二，政府采取有效措施减轻市场出清的负面影响，比如改革措施到位，意味着下行风险可控、市场前景转好，这样，我认为即使在市场出清之前，投资者也可能会有投资兴趣。

What should long-term investors do to prepare for the day when doubts about the renminbi are resolved?

Q: 长线投资者应该如何为人民币贬值疑虑打消的这一天做准备？

Get prepared earlier. For long-term investors like pension funds, the secret to outperforming the market is counter-trend trading — seeing value where many others don’t. They have two concerns: How deep is the correction? And when will the correction happen? If they are relatively certain about the timing, they could start preparing for investment. It’s not that they cannot take risks; they take risks for good reasons. If you have a judgment for the depth of the correction, the only question is timing.

A: 尽早准备。对于像养老基金这样的长期投资者来说，跑赢市场的秘诀就是逆向交易——看到别人看不到的价值。对市场，他们有两大关注点：调整幅度有多大？何时会发生调整？如果投资者对调整时机比较确定，他们就可以开始准备投资。他们不是不能承担风险，他们可以冒与回报相适应的风险。如果他们对调整的幅度有所判断，剩下唯一的问题便是时机。

What are some of the business sectors in China that should appeal to investors?

Q: 中国哪些行业对投资者有吸引力？

My advice is to focus on consumption and avoid investment-driven sectors. The momentum of China’s consumption is much stronger than the expectation of many investors. Another perspective is the new economy. Relatively speaking, China’s new economy, like the innovations in internet industries, is much more dynamic than in many other countries. People are accustomed to electronic payment. In Beijing, I can arrange my breakfast delivery before getting out of bed. Bike sharing blossoms overnight. Not every innovation can succeed, but you can see the momentum, and the urge of innovation thrives.

A：我建议关注消费产业，避免投资驱动型产业。中国的消费势头强于许多投资者的预期；随着代际更替，消费升级已是进行时，与他们父母辈相比，年轻一代更愿意消费。另一个关注点是新经济。相对而言，中国的新经济，像互联网产业中的创新，比其他很多国家有活力得多。例如，人们习惯于电子支付。在北京，我起床之前就可以点上一份早餐外卖；共享单车一夜间遍地开花。虽然并不是每一个创新都能获得成功，但你可以看到其强劲的动力和势头。

Assuming China’s global leadership role continues to grow as the U.S. retreats from globalization, what will this mean for those seeking to invest in China?

Q:假设美国退出全球化，中国的全球领导力继续加强，这对那些在中国寻求机会的投资者而言意味着什么？

China has to do its “home” work very well if it wants to lead the world. For investors, if they believe China will have a bigger role in the world, they should have confidence in China’s economy, and should accordingly increase their allocation in renminbi assets. I can’t imagine any other way in which a greater global leadership role will be achieved.

A：如果中国希望引领全球，就必须发展好自身经济。对投资者而言，倘若他们相信中国会在世界上扮演更加重要的角色，就应该对中国的经济保持信心，并相应增加人民币资产配置。除此以外，我想不到其他方法来实现更强的和可持续的全球领导力。

Two characteristics will be fundamental in this process: a more internationalized renminbi, and the rise of China’s consumerism. China can’t lead the world by increasing exports. It can only lead the world by its growing consumption. China can’t lead the world in U.S. dollars. It has to lead the world in renminbi. Investors should consider a reasonable allocation in renminbi assets. And you should invest in Chinese and global winners who can ride on China’s growing consumption. If this transformation is successful, China will likely enter a sustainable but slower growth period.

在这一过程中，有两个变化至关重要，即人民币国际化和消费能力。中国只有通过提升消费实力才能引领全球经济，仅靠增加出口是办不到的。同时，中国不能用美元引领全球经济，而要使用本国货币，即人民币。投资者应该考虑更合理的人民币资产配置，投资在可以驾驭中国消费增长的中国或全球龙头企业上。

China’s internal infrastructure ambitions continue to grow at the same time that the Belt and Road initiative gathers momentum. How will that shape investors’ perspectives?

Q: 中国建设国内基础设施的决心不断加强，同时“一带一路”倡议也取得进展。这将会如何影响投资者的看法？

It’s unrealistic to expect investment in any single area — for example, property, infrastructure, or even capacity investment in manufacturing — to fuel the growth of such a huge economy. The momentum of investment-driven sectors will weaken, not just because China’s development has come to this stage, but because technological progress and the evolution in information technology allow for light investment models instead of heavy investment models.

A：期待通过例如房地产、基础设施甚至制造业产能投资等单一领域的投资，以推动如此庞大的经济增长是不切实际的。投资驱动型产业的势头将会减弱，不仅仅是因为中国的发展已经进入这一阶段，更因为技术发展和信息技术革新为轻投资模式取代重投资模式创造了机会。

The success of the Belt & Road initiative is not about whether China is able to export its capacity in the manufacturing sector. It’s about whether China is able to import, i.e., running trade deficits with Belt & Road countries and regions to facilitate the demand for China’s exports, and whether these investments and trades are denominated in renminbi, a challenge similar to China becoming global leader.

“一带一路”政策的成功并不在于中国是否能够出口其制造业产能，而在于中国是否能够进口，以贸易逆差带动沿线国家或地区对中国的出口需求，在于这些投资和交易是否以人民币计价，这两点与中国成为世界领袖的挑战类似。

To which storylines that could affect China’s economy will you be paying the most attention?

Q: 您最重视哪些可能会对中国经济产生影响的因素？

The reason why China’s economy has risen successfully in the past four decades lies in its institutional or policy flexibility. There are two meanings to the flexibility I’m talking about. The first one is leeway. The second one is a willingness to make necessary adjustments in policies so that they can better adapt to local and current circumstances. For example, when the planned economy couldn’t work anymore, China shifted to a market economy. I think the Chinese economy is always hopeful as long as the country doesn’t shut its door.

A： 中国经济在过去四十年中发展迅速的原因在于其制度或政策的灵活性。我所说的灵活性有两个含义：第一个是留有余地；第二个是愿意在政策上作出必要的调整，以便更好地适应当地和当前的情况。例如，当计划经济不再起作用时，中国打开了通向市场经济的大门。只要不闭关锁国，中国经济总是充满希望的。

Among the things I worry about are interest rates getting out of control during the future market clearing. Therefore, I think liquidity management is an important storyline for individuals, for corporates, and for the PBoC. The third storyline is the property market. It will be remarkable if the bubble in China’s property prices doesn’t burst, but there are different ways for that to occur. If these issues are addressed well by policies, a market clearing will come, but its negative effects will be controllable.

我担心的是在未来市场出清时利率失控。因此，我认为流动性管理是个人、企业和中国人民银行值得关注的一个因素。第三个因素是房地产市场。如果中国房价泡沫不被挤破，那将是奇迹，但是它可能有不同的发生方式。根据我们的估算，房地产产业链影响三分之一的中国经济，没有房地产业支持，中国经济很难站稳。

You’ve worked with many great research teams in your career. What makes GF Securities research teams different and better?

Q:您曾在您的职业生涯中与许多顶尖的研究团队合作。是什么使广发证券研究团队有所不同或更胜一筹？

The GFS research team was ranked second in China last year, empowered by a few unique features: an adaptive governance structure; a research team that keeps clients grounded; and strong business lines, including investment banking.

A：广发证券研究团队去年在中国本土排名第二。公司独有的特点包括：优秀的治理结构、紧贴客户的研究团队，以及包括投资银行业务在内的强大的业务线。

More than 99 percent of our researchers have a master’s degree or higher, and we are in the process of growing the team, particularly in Hong Kong. There are great opportunities ahead for Chinese brokers, and Hong Kong is a harbor where outbound and inbound funds park. The story has really just begun. We are best positioned to exploit the opportunities based in Hong Kong.

我们（广发证券及其关联机构）的分析师99％以上拥有硕士及以上学历，现在，我们正在进一步扩充团队，尤其是在香港。摆在中国证券公司面前的，是极为难得的历史机会，香港作为出港和入境资金的中转站，故事才刚刚开始。我们处在绝佳的位置，去捕捉这个难得的发展机会。

There are more advantages going forward that should help Chinese brokers. The first advantage is the connection of onshore and offshore markets. The second is that Chinese brokers are the best tellers of local stories, and we compete with international banks at the front line. Ultimately, it’s the economic power we are depending on. As long as China succeeds in its transformation, local knowledge will become increasingly important. Hong Kong is the best place for strategic asset allocation, where you have access to various investment vehicles and uncorrelated assets.

还有更多的优势可以帮助中国证券公司发展壮大：第一，我们能联接大陆和境外市场。第二，我们是中国本地故事的最佳诠释者，直面国际竞争对手。第三也是最关键的，就是我们背后赖以发展的经济实力。只要中国转型取得成功，本土知识将会愈发重要。香港就更是进行策略性资产配置的最佳场所，投资者可以选择各种投资工具、投资于回报相关度低的各种大类资产。