国际可可组织 (International cocoa Organisation) 发布的《2023年3月可可市场报告》(March cocoa Market Report) 称，由于全球形势的发展，可可行业在过去5个季中经历了农场价格的第二次逆转。
报告显示，在过去 5 季中，加纳以美元计算的农场收购价高于邻国科特迪瓦。然而，在2021/22和2022/23季的作物中期，情况发生了逆转，这主要是由于塞迪对美元的大幅贬值。
对于2022/23年度的中期作物，科特迪瓦和加纳的监管机构分别维持每公斤 900 加纳先令 (每吨 1507 美元) 和每吨 12800 加纳塞地 (每吨 1206 美元) 的固定农场价格不变。
报告进一步指出，加纳可可产业农场出厂价格的逆转主要归因于影响加纳货币的全球经济挑战。塞地对美元的贬值是几个因素的结果，包括新冠疫情、低商品价格和加纳的债务负担。
塞地最差的运行
塞地在一波主权降级和投机之后摇摆不定。加纳塞地经历了 2022 年的煎熬，年底成为全球表现第四差的货币，交易价格为 11.60 加纳赛地/美元（年初至今损失 44.05%）。当地单位遭受了一系列主权评级下调，使投资者信心黯淡。惠誉和穆迪的评级在 2022 年初将加纳下调至负面展望区域，导致加纳无法进入国际资本市场（ICM）。无法获得 ICM 对国际储备和该国履行外部融资义务的能力构成一些风险。
从9月22日至11月22日，加纳塞地累计贬值33.22%，成为全球表现最差的货币。在此期间，由于投机攻击严重削弱了当地单位，外汇市场上的报价为 1 美元兑 15 加纳塞地。然而，截至12月22日，该股上涨 27.16%，这主要是由于国际货币基金组织(IMF) 达成的一项员工层面协议带来的积极情绪、投机性攻击的减少以及美联储立场的软化。
尽管加纳可可产业面临挑战，但加纳近年来在提高可可产量方面取得了重大进展。为支持该产业，实施了若干举措，包括可可农民养恤金计划、可可康复方案和可可病虫害防治方案。
加纳可可产量超过科特迪瓦
根据国际可可组织报告，2022 年下半年至 23 年收获季，加纳在可可产量上超过了科特迪瓦。截至2023年3月31日，科特迪瓦可可豆累计到达率在前一季的水平上有所下降，而从 2022/23 季在加纳购买的等级和封存的可可豆数量有所增加，比前一年增加了18%。
尽管中国可可粉产量有所增加，但在 2022/23 的前两个世界可可生产商中，可可豆总供应总量估计为 2,345,846 吨，比上一季略降 0.2%。ICCO 报告指出，在 2022 - 23 年可可年的上半年，科特迪瓦累计港口的 88 万吨可可豆产量同比减少，加上同期加纳分级和密封可可豆的购买量增加了 85,360 吨，导致净效应略有负面。
该报告还指出，随中期作物的进展，目前情况或会发生变化。然而，目前情况表明，加纳的可可产量已超过科特迪瓦，是全球可可市场的重大发展。
由于全球发展，加纳国内可可行业正面临重大挑战，包括加纳塞地对美元的贬值。然而，监管机构仍致力于支持其可可种植者，并通过各种举措提高行业绩效。
过去五个季中农场价格的逆转令人担忧，但加纳的可可产业预计将在正确的支持下反弹。
Cocoa Farmgate Prices See Another Reversal
The cocoa industry has experienced its second reversal in farmgate prices over the past five mid-seasons due to global developments, says the March 2023 Cocoa Market Report by the International Cocoa Organisation.
The report shows that the farm-gate prices in US$ nominal terms have been higher in Ghana than in neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire over the past five mid-seasons. However, the situation was reversed during the mid-crops for 2021/22 and 2022/23 seasons – mainly due to substantial depreciation of the cedi (GH¢) vis-à-vis the US dollar.
For the 2022/23 mid-crop, the Ivorian and Ghanaian regulators have left unchanged the fixed farmgate price at 900 XOF per kg (US$1,507 per tonne) and GH¢12,800 per tonne (US$1,206 US per tonne) respectively.
The report further indicates that the reversal of farm-gate prices in Ghana’s cocoa industry is largely attributed to the global economic challenges which have affected Ghana’s currency. The depreciation of GH¢ vis-à-vis US$ is a result of several factors – including the COVID-19 pandemic, low commodity prices and the country’s debt burden.
Cedi’s worst run
The cedi wobbled after a wave of sovereign downgrades and speculations. The GH¢ endured a torrid 2022, ending the year as the fourth worst-performing currency globally and trading at a mid-rate of GH¢11.60 /US$ (YTD loss of 44.05%). The local unit suffered from a raft of sovereign downgrades that dimmed investor confidence. Fitch and Moody’s ratings downgraded Ghana into negative outlook territory at the start of 2022, leading to a loss of access to the international capital market (ICM). The loss of access to the ICM posed some risks to international reserves and the country’s ability to meet external financing obligations.
The cedi endured its worst run of form yet, as it depreciated 33.22 percent from Sep-22 to Nov-22 to emerge as the worst-performing currency globally. During this period, the GH¢ was quoted at 15/US$1 on the forex market as speculative attacks severely weakened the local unit. However, the local unit gained 27.16 percent to end Dec-22; primarily due to positive sentiments from an IMF staff-level agreement, reduced speculative attacks and softened stance of the US Fed.
Despite the challenges faced by Ghana’s cocoa industry, the country has made significant strides in boosting its cocoa production over recent years. Several initiatives have been implemented to support the industry, including the Cocoa Farmers Pension Scheme, the Cocoa Rehabilitation Programme, and the Cocoa Disease and Pest Control Programme.
Ghana surpasses Ivory Coast in cocoa production
Ghana has surpassed Ivory Coast in cocoa production over the half-year 2022/23 crop season, according to the ICCO report. As of 31 March 2023, cumulative arrivals of cocoa beans in Ivory Coast were lagging behind previous season levels, while the volumes of graded and sealed cocoa beans purchased in Ghana since start of the 2022/23 season was reported at 566,846 tonnes; representing an 18 percent increase from the previous year.
Despite an increase in the country’s cocoa production, total supply of cocoa beans from the top-two world cocoa producers for the first half of 2022/23 is estimated at 2,345,846 tonnes, slightly down by 0.2 percent compared to the previous season.
The ICCO report states that the year-on-year reduction of 89,000 tonnes in Ivory Coast’s cumulative ports’ arrival of cocoa beans over the first half of the 2022/23 cocoa year, combined with the increase of 85,360 tonnes over the same period in Ghanaian purchases of graded and sealed cocoa beans, results in a slightly negative net effect.
The report also stated that the current state of play is subject to change as the mid-crop progresses. However, the current situation shows that Ghana has overtaken Ivory Coast in cocoa production; a significant development in the global cocoa market.
The domestic cocoa industry is facing significant challenges due to global developments, including depreciation of the GH¢ vis-à-vis the US$. However, the Regulator remains committed to supporting its cocoa farmers and improving the industry’s performance through various initiatives.
The reversal of farmgate prices in the past five mid-seasons is a concern, but Ghana’s cocoa industry is expected to bounce back with the right support.
本文节选自公众号迦纳术略