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海外业绩要点 - TXN US

海外业绩要点 - TXN US AlphaConnect投研
2024-01-24
2
导读:君问见底未有期

持续更新,关注脚部自媒体

投资不易,不构成任何建议

Key Takeaways: 
1. 业绩符合我们前瞻的预期,Q1 2024 EPS数字比我想得还要差,miss 一致预期 25%

The party doesn't stop today. 

此前业绩前瞻在星球,感兴趣的朋友可以加~ 

2. 库存持续高企,账面库存继续上升;客户库存调整取消订单,工业和车用周期最后调整,现在持续弱化,整体行业还未见底
3. 资本开支持续在5bn,支持我们之前对成熟支撑capex的观点,ZF金主继续支持
4. 毛估估FY24 EPS 会下调到5附近 (和当前consensus相比至少20%下修空间,盘后目前只跌了4%,市场认为5块 EPS不是正常水平,现在核心的问题是正常 EPS是什么水平?什么时候见底?在库存持续高企和公司持续扩产的背景下,见底目前是看不到的,表观估值现在巨贵,模拟公司应该会继续跑输SOX,只能说市场还是相当有效的

Earnings Details:
  • Q4 2023: Revenue: $4.1 billion, QoQ: -10%, YoY: -13%; GM: 60%; EPS: $1.49
  • Q1 2024: Revenue Forecast: $3.45 billion to $3.75 billion; EPS Forecast: $0.96 to $1.16 (miss consensus 1.42)
  • Inventory Increase: Up $91 million, with days at 219 (+14 sequentially)
  • Industrial Market: Mid-teens decline, signaling increasing weakness. customers are reducing inventory levels
  • Automotive Market: Mid-single digits decline. Sequential decline after 3.5 years of strong growth; inventory rebalancing by customers.
  • Personal Electronics: Flat performance
  • Communications Equipment: Low single digits decline
  • Enterprise Systems: Low single digits growth
  • Order Patterns: Evident cancellations and push-outs, especially in Q4, remained at elevated levels but did not significantly increase.
  • Pricing Strategy: Consistent, with a low single-digit decline expected in line with historical trends
  • Forecast: No specific timeline provided for when business is expected to improve or bottom out.
  • Ongoing $5 billion/year capex through 2026 for 300mm wafer technology; Benefiting from ITC and Potential CHIPS Act Grants: Investment Tax Credit (ITC) accrual of $1.4 billion to date, with expected cash benefits. Submitted application for CHIPS Act grants, potentially offsetting CapEx costs.

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AlphaConnect投研 星球AlphaConnect投研官方号,全球大类资产投研;海外知名对冲基金背景,CFA持证人
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