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[Auto, OSAT, FPGA 血崩，这波A股领先一年...]
[Memory largely bottom out]
Arista (ANET US), Networking
Q3 revenue: $1.1 billion; 33% annual growth projection for CY 2023 (up from 25%)
Q4 guidance: ~33% YoY revenue growth; Double-digit growth expected next year and beyond
Strong enterprise demand; QoQ drop in cloud titan business; Cloud titan shift to AI and classic cloud networking mix; AI prioritized; anticipation for traditional infrastructure to pick up in the future
AI networking moving to Ethernet; Pilot AI deployments in 2024; meaningful volumes in 2025
AI fabric network spend: 10-15% of total compute spend
Tier 1 & 2 cloud providers building AI clusters; Tier 2 activities are scaled-down versions of Tier 1; Growing AI enterprise projects, but smaller in scale.
Rambus (RMBS US), Memory
Generative AI and data-intensive workloads boost DDR5 demand in high-performance servers.
DDR4 headwinds ongoing; inventories to normalize by early 2024.
Memory interface chips: $52M product revenue in Q3.
Robust DDR5 demand; diminished DDR4 demand.
Q4 expected product mix: growth in DDR5, minimal DDR4 shipments; Market crossover to DDR5 projected in 1H 2024.
DDR5's ASP erosion impacts margins; stabilization expected in Q4; Each DDR5 generation offers ASP reset opportunity.
Amkor (AMKR US), OSAT
Q3 2023 revenue: $1.82 billion, up 25% QoQ
Growth driven by advanced packaging for premium-tier smartphones
Communication end market revenue: $1 billion with 3% YoY growth and 69% sequential growth
Automotive and industrial markets: flat sequentially
Computing markets: 14% sequential decline with inventory correction signs and positive outlook next year
Consumer markets: stable but demand improving, not yet balanced
Expected Q4 2023 revenue: $1.675 billion (midpoint of guidance), softer than seasonal norms due to inventory cautiousness
High-performance computing plans: triple capacity by mid-next year, confident in capacity utilization
Lattice (LSCC US), FPGA
Q3 2023: 11% YoY revenue growth
Communications and Computing: 6% QoQ growth, 6% YoY decline; Growth potential in servers, softer demand in 5G telecom, Q4 forecast: flat to sequentially down
Industrial and Automotive: 5% QoQ decline, 28% YoY growth; Continued softness expected next quarter, Q4 forecast: sequentially down
Pricing: expected to remain stable
Lead times: back to normal; Semiconductor supply chain stabilizing.
MPS (MPWR US), Analog
Revenue Q3 2023: $474.9 million; Up 7.6% QoQ; Down 4.1% YoY
Enterprise data: 106.2% QoQ, 31.4% YoY; Storage & computing: 3.9% QoQ, 14.7% YoY; Consumer revenue: 4.3% QoQ, 30.1% YoY; Lagging sectors: automotive, industrial, communications
Q4 Outlook: Slower growth in most sectors; AI and some automotive segments as growth drivers
Inventory Strategy: Preparing for uptick in CPU and GPU demand; Building inventory for upcoming quarters; Reduction in overall inventory in anticipation of 2024 demand.
ON US, Auto
Revenue drops for first time in several quarters; no growth for H1 2024; December sees sequential decline due to lower LTSA consumption.
Caution arises from European Tier 1 softness, high interest rates in automotive, single OEM's demand drop, and broad-based weak demand, notably among European tier-ones.
Silicon carbide demand to grow but at slower rate; major factor in Q4 weakness
Industrial and large-scale energy storage demand robust; challenges in residential sector
Inventory level up by $120 million sequentially; days of inventory at 166 days
Pricing stable; not a factor in revenue decline
2024 CapEx revised to low teens percentage of sales, down from high teens
Western Digital (WDC US), Memory
Western Digital splitting into HDD and Flash companies
NAND: Revenue +13% QoQ, -10% YoY; strong consumer/client demand; sequential bit growth 26%, +49% YoY; FY'24 exabyte demand acceleration by end '23; High teens growth expected for 2024; positive pricing trend; expected to be gross margin positive
HDD: Revenue -8% QoQ, -41% YoY; consumer/client demand high; subdued cloud demand; broad recovery; China market slower recovery pace; Exabyte growth mid-high 20s expected
Inventory down $201M to $3.5B; gradual inventory decline expected; healthy Flash inventory levels
Fiscal '24 H2: Quarterly cash flow positive; 2024 CapEx lower than 2023
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Amazon (AMZN US), CSP
2023 CapEx forecast $50B, down from $59B in 2022. Lower fulfillment & transport CapEx, offset by higher AWS infrastructure CapEx for generative AI and large language models
Q3 revenue $143.1B, up 11% YoY; AWS up 12% YoY, strong pipeline but elevated customer optimization
High interest in Bedrock AI, Trainium, Inferentia chips
Intel (INTC US), PC & DC
Revenue beat high-end guidance; EPS strong due to operating leverage, expense discipline. Q4 guidance $14.6B-$15.6B; moderate growth in DCAI, CCG. Q3 gross margin just below 46%; Q4 aiming for normalized 60% fall-through
Q3 Revenue Growth: CCG 16% QoQ, DCAI sequential rise, NEX 6% QoQ, Mobileye 18% YoY, 17% QoQ. High confidence in long-term 60% gross margin due to improvements, new products, internal foundry
Customer inventory healthy; market on track for 2023. Commercial, gaming strong; network, telco weak. Rising AI, high-performance computing demand. Advanced packaging interest from top AI firms
Meteor Lake shipments started; high-volume EUV in Oregon, Ireland. Intel Foundry Services progress, new customers. Intel 20A manufacturing readiness H1 2024
Inventory down $500M, projected healthy year-end; CCG healthy, network, telco elevated.
China export impact on Gaudi minimal; working with BIS in 60-day comment period
SK Hynix (000660 KS), Memory
Q3 revenue up 24% QoQ to KRW9.07T; -20% operating margin. Memory industry nearing full recovery despite global uncertainties. Key product prices stabilizing
Server systems: 20% QoQ shipment increase. DRAM back to profitability
DRAM: 20% QoQ shipment increase, 10% ASP rise; NAND: Mid-single-digit QoQ bit growth, slight ASP drop
High demand for DDR, LPDDR5, HBM; slow DDR4 recovery. DRAM growth led by high-value DDR5, HBM3E. Longer NAND recovery due to high inventory, limited AI impact
HBM CAGR 60-80% next 5 years. Q2 inventory down, normalization by H1 next year. DDR5 computing segment crossover ongoing
China regulatory issues resolved
ASE (3711 TT), OSAT
ATM business: Q4 2023 revenues expected to decline low to mid-single digits QoQ. Gross margin flattish to Q3 2023. Inventory digestion needed in auto, industrial sectors
EMS business: Q4 2023 revenues to rise low teens QoQ. Operating margin similar/higher than YTD 2023's 3.3%. Nearing end of inventory digestion cycle
Outlook: Cautiously optimistic, expecting YoY growth
Key Equipment Utilization: ATM factories mid-60s, slightly lower than 65% for Q4
CapEx: Investments planned for de-bottling capacity. Next year CapEx higher, focused on advanced packaging tech
Pricing: Resilient. Effective margin management
Advanced Packaging: Stronger pickup
COAS/substrate advanced packaging revenue expected to double next year
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Meta US, ISP
CapEx $6.8B focused on servers, data centers, network infra. 2023 guidance $27-29B, upper range revised down; 2024 $30-35B, mainly in AI
Widened Q4 guidance due to geopolitical risks
Increased platform engagement credited to AI, new features like Meta AI and business AIs
Strong revenue from China ad demand targeting North America, Brazil
Reality Labs down 26%, operating loss $3.7B
Resuming hiring focused on AI, infrastructure, Reality Labs, monetization
UMC (2303 TT), Foundry
Q3 revenue TWD 57.1B, up 1.4% QoQ due to better product mix and favorable exchange rates. GM steady at 35.9%. Utilization rate 67%
OLED drivers, WiFi, ISP, SoC processors on 22 and 28 nm strong. Rush orders from PC and Chinese smartphone sectors. Automotive to decline in Q4 due to high inventory; correction through 2024
Q4 wafer shipments expected to decline ~5%, GM in low 30s% due to reduced utilization. LTA coverage 25-30%
8-inch under pressure; recovery and better product composition expected in 12+ months. UMC adjusting pricing strategy for 8-inch
Investment in interposer tech and AI, doubling interposer capacity to 6K/month by Q1 2024. CapEx on track at $3B for 2023; ramp profile may be moderated
2023 depreciation likely lowest in recent years, will rebound in 2024 due to Tainan and Singapore expansions
12 nm process to complete by early 2025, revenue to follow
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Microsoft (MSFT US), CSP
CapEx: 11.2bn, 70% YoY, 5% QoQ, expected to increase sequentially, driven by investments in cloud and AI; Increasing cost, expense, and capital investment are aligned with the demand
Azure revenue up 29% YoY, beat, higher-than-expected AI consumption; 18,000 organizations using Azure OpenAI services, up from 11,000 in July
Microsoft 365 Copilot general availability on November 1st, already in preview with 40% of the Fortune 100
GitHub Copilot has 1 million paid users, copilot users at 37,000 organizations, up 40% QoQ
PC market unit volumes back to pre-pandemic levels
Upcoming Ignite conference with over 100 new products and capabilities, introducing new AI-driven features across businesses
Alphabet (GOOGL US), CSP
Q3 CapEx $8 billion, 11% YoY, 17% QoQ, muted due to timing of supplier payments; expected to ramp up, mainly in AI and technical infrastructure
CapEx is expected to increase in Q4 2023; The total aggregate CapEx for 2024 will be higher than the full year 2023. Focus on making AI models more efficient to control the capital intensity
Google Cloud: miss, started seeing customers looking to optimize spend, but could be stabilizing; revenue at $8.4 billion, up 22% YoY
Launched 'Bard' and 'Assistant with Bard'; integrates across Google services like Maps, Workspace, YouTube
DeepMind's Gemini as a key growth driver; Vertex AI projects grew over 7x
Texas Instruments (TXN US), Analog
Analog revenue declined 16%, Embedded Processing grew 8% YoY
QoQ Industrial market down mid-single digits, auto up mid-single digits, personal electronics up about 20% off a low base, communications equipment down upper teens, enterprise systems grew upper single digits
Inventory continued increase, and factory starts were lowered in Q3 and continue in Q4
Pricing not a main concern now, expect low single digit decline, Asia market worth watching
The demand in the industrial sector, particularly in China, remains weak
Almost all catalog products are available for immediate shipment
Cadence (CDNS US), EDA
High design activity in AI, 5G, hyperscale computing, and autonomous driving
Tripled revenue from AI products like Cerebrus, Verisium, JedAI YoY
Incorporating AI and LLMs to formalize the front-end of the design process, seen to de-risk schedules and potentially boost design activity
No significant impact from new regulations/entity lists, China stable
Expects strong Q4 bookings and backlog increase
No 2024 outlook; details to be provided in February earnings call
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