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海外业绩要点 - AMAT

AlphaConnect投研

2024-02-16

导读：下周NVDA求多空观点

持续更新，关注脚部自媒体

投资不易，不构成任何建议

业绩前瞻在星球：

半导体 & 硬件业绩前瞻 20240211

AMAT US

What downcycle?

至此本周四家业绩前瞻基本全中嘿嘿，看Tech的兄弟们懂的都懂，下周要写NVDA压力不小，求朋友们积极输出多空观点

全网征集NVDA多空观点

Key Takeaways:

1. 如前瞻所写，consensus数字太久没调，Q4 & Q1都大幅beat

2. 制程推进和供应链重塑的需求在近几年是远超市场预期的，24年不错，25年还有先进制程更大的梦想；这次业绩也验证了一些之前的想法，公司提到云厂商在数据中心的加速投资也是半导体行业发展的推手， AI的出现大大加强了先进制程推进的动力，better semiconductors needed for more computing power, simple as that

3. 另外比较正面的是Services业务公司认为可以增长double digit

4. 其他有意思的点：OLED投资起来了，这点大A遥遥领先；CN地区DRAM需求持续高企到2Q

5. 业绩上调后盘后对应估值20x+，和其他SPE相比仍具备比较大的性价比

Earnings Details:

Q1 2024:

Revenue: $6.7bn

Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 47.9%

Non-GAAP EPS: $2.13

Semiconductor Systems Revenue: $4.91bn

AGS Revenue: $1.48bn

Display Revenue: $244m

Q2 2024 Guidance:

Revenue: $6.5bn (±$400m)

Non-GAAP EPS: $1.97 (±$0.18)

Semi Systems Revenue: ~$4.8bn

AGS Revenue: ~$1.5bn

Display Revenue: ~$150m

Increasing fab utilization across device types, memory

Segments Overview:

Semiconductor Systems: $4.91bn revenue; growth driven by DRAM, leading-edge foundry/logic; Gate All Around transistors impact

AGS: $1.48bn revenue; 18 consecutive quarters of Y-o-Y growth; 49,000 tools installed base, indicating strong recurring revenue, potential for double-digit growth

Display: $244m revenue; growth anticipated from OLED IT

Advanced Packaging & HBM:

Advanced Packaging: Fiscal 2024 revenue to grow to approx $1.5bn; opportunities to double as heterogeneous integration adopted

HBM: Expected to grow to almost $0.5bn in fiscal 2024; 5% of DRAM output in 2023, 50% CAGR expected

Technology Inflections:

Gate All Around Transistors: More than 30% efficiency improvement; $1bn market growth for every 100,000 wafer starts/month

Backside Power Delivery & Advanced Logic: Critical for AI datacenters

Market Outlook:

Foundry & Logic: Stronger YoY, despite some project delays

ICAPS Demand: Slightly lower than 2023; regional investments offsetting weaknesses

NAND Revenues: Up YoY; <10% of total WFE spending

DRAM Business: Strength continues, critical for AI datacenters

China Outlook:

Elevated DRAM shipments into Q2 2024; normalization expected later, returning to a typical level around 30% revenue mix long-term (was 44% in Q4)

【声明】内容源于网络

AlphaConnect投研

星球AlphaConnect投研官方号，全球大类资产投研；海外知名对冲基金背景，CFA持证人

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