海外业绩要点 - LITE

LITE US
Too many moving pieces

1. 业绩整体挺乱的，之前市场尤其是亚洲投资人主要冲着光模块的业务去买，尤其是Cloud Light，Mar Q因为完整并表Cloud Light这块营收还是up，但是公司指引datacom营收 Jun和Sep Q因为客户产品更新换代要掉30%，大幅低于预期，虽然公司的意思是年底会回来并且25年快速增长，但是现在很难给太多credibility，毕竟还有半年
2. 3D sensing说大客户苹果库存不少，库存调整；Telecom的库存somehow也没结束，这有点奇怪，其他相关的公司都认为见底了
3. HW的出口限制对营收也有$40-50m影响；收购Cloud Light之后cash也变少，利息收入变少
4. 1.6T已经在要开始ramp了，这点和其他家说法类似，1.6T的升级应该对光模块行业的业绩提升更大，这可能是市场还没有充分预期的地方
5. 业绩前估值本来就在历史上端了，容错率不高，业绩这么多逆风，当前估值更不太好看了，forward估值往30x靠了
6. 这些公司操作起来真的挺难的，最近不少朋友问我自己搞了啥？不太想荐股，大道至简，NVDA，TSM, ASML, SNPS等为主要持仓，睡眠质量会比较好，其他操作难度较高的除非有很强的conviction一般选择交流观望学习，当然也有艺高人胆大的朋友赚到钱，我也表示羡慕，技艺不精仍需学习

Key Takeaways:
Q2 2024:
Revenue: $366.8M, +15.5% QoQ, -27.5% YoY; CloudLight $59.5M revenue.
Gross Margin: 32.6%
Operating Margin: 3.5%
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.32
Cash: $1.22B, -$720M (CloudLight purchase)

Q3 2024 Outlook:
Revenue Guidance: $350M-$380M; cloud/networking up, export impacts.
Operating Margin: 2%-5%
EPS Guidance: $0.2-$0.35

Highlights:
Data center transceiver revenue dip in June/September (product transition).
Telecom inventory digestion through FY24.
Export Regulations: Compliance issue led to halting shipments to major Chinese customer; -$40M to -$50M revenue impact for 2024.

Initial 1.6 Terabit Products:
Significant growth anticipated from new data center opportunities and early 1.6 Terabit product ramp-up.
Future Revenue: Expect growth post-June/September dip as new products ramp and transitions complete.

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