海外业绩要点 - ASML, LRCX, STX

持续更新，关注脚部自媒体

投资不易，不构成任何建议

最近的半导体机会要抓住说难也难，说容易也容易；难在SOX新高了，怎么冷静下来思考基本面和set-up；容易在只要相信历史 don't fight the bottom 和 believe in the cycle，就能抓住，这些之前的文章可以考古

他山之石 - SOX - Don't fight the bottom

已经在谷底了，怎么走都是向上？

业绩的前瞻在星球，感兴趣的朋友可以私信我加入倒逼我们一起记录思考学习

The party doesn't stop today.

ASML US

Key Takeaways:

1. 4Q订单炸裂，upside主要来自EUV，和TSMC业绩会说法对的上

2. 2024年过渡年，2025年冲刺，市场的关心重点也在2025年。目标营收30-€40 billion in 2025 and €44-€60 billion in 2030

3. 按照现在算25年PE大概在25x左右，历史中位以下，EUV订单好对估值拉升有推动作用，估值性价比和其他SPE相比更好，不排除类似TSMC业绩的走势

Earnings Details:

4Q 2023: Net Sales: €7.2 billion. Gross Margin: 51.4%. Operating Margin: 33.1%.

Net Bookings: €9.2 billion (including EUV bookings of €5.6 billion). Order Book: Totalled €39 billion.

2023: EUV: Sales increased by 30% to €9.1 billion.DUV Lithography: Sales grew by 60% to €12.3 billion. Metrology & Inspection systems sales declined by 19% to €536 million.

2024 Outlook: Net Sales Forecast: Expected to mirror 2023, ranging between €5.0 billion and €5.5 billion in Q1. Gross Margin Projection: Slightly lower than 2023, between 48% and 49%. 

Memory Segment: Anticipated growth in 2024, driven by advanced DRAM and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) demand. Logic Segment: Expected slight decline in revenue.

Revenue Projections: Targeting €30-€40 billion in 2025 and €44-€60 billion in 2030

Projected Growth: Semiconductor revenue anticipated to top $1 trillion by 2030.

China Market and Export Controls

2023 Sales: Strong, mainly executing existing orders.

2024 Forecast: No advanced immersion tool exports expected to China due to export controls.

EUV Sales Growth: Both Low NA and High NA EUV systems showing robust demand. High NA EUV Systems: Expected to enable multiple future nodes, starting at the sub 2nm logic node. Strong Order Intake: Reflecting ongoing and future needs for advanced lithography solutions.

DUV Lithography (Deep Ultraviolet): Growth in 2023: Notably in the sales of immersion systems. 2024 Outlook: Slight decrease expected in non-EUV system sales, primarily related to immersion lithography.

2024 as a Transition Year: Preparing for significant growth in 2025, with investments in capacity and technology.

China: Under regulations, it is expected that ASML will not receive export licenses for advanced immersion tools (NXT:2000i and upwards) to China in 2024. Additionally, for a handful of fabs, there may be restrictions on the export of NXT:1970i and NXT:1980i immersion tools. Continued Demand: Despite the new export controls, the demand for mid-critical and mature manufacturing systems in China is expected to remain strong.

LRCX US

Key Takeaways:

1. 数字beat, 整体业绩与前瞻内容基本相符，Ex-China memory capex见底回升，中国 2024 capex水平稳定，在公司营收占比会逐步降低

2. AI加快 HBM发展以及DDR5升级，HBM相关订单今年翻三倍

3. 和其他SPE一样，今年EPS应该在上调通道，重心在25年，现在25年对应PE也在中值以上，如果有dip应该是机会，不然ASML的性价比相当明显

Earnings Details:

Q2 2024 Results: Revenue $3.76 billion, Gross Margin 47.6%.

Q3 2024 Guidance: Revenue $3.7 billion ± $300 million, Gross Margin 48% ± 1%, EPS $7.25 ± $0.75, WFE 2024 mid-high $80 billion range.

Growth Drivers: Increased etch, deposition intensity, 3D architectures, advanced packaging, Memory WFE recovery, DRAM HBM, DDR5 upgrades.

Memory Segment: DRAM 31% systems revenue, HBM, DDR5 driven growth. NAND 17% systems revenue, technology project investments, inventory management.

Foundry Demand: 38% systems revenue, growth from new fabs, various regions, process nodes.

Logic/Other Segments: 14% systems revenue, mature node softness, project timing impacts.

Future Outlook: Memory spending recovery in 2024, DRAM growth via HBM, node conversions, NAND technology upgrades, Foundry Logic spending increase.

AI's DRAM Impact: DRAM growth from HBM for AI servers, DDR5 for AI workloads, HBM requirements tripling Lam's DRAM, packaging shipments YoY.

China Market: 40% Dec Q revenue, mainly domestic customers, stable 2024 spending, strong domestic segment, high March Q revenue, anticipated decrease China as % revenue as year progresses.

STX US

Key Takeaways:

1. 整体业绩符合前瞻内容，HDD见底回升，涨价周期，Sep Q是底部

2. Q2和Q3都不亏钱了，Q3 beat 本来不算高的consensus，最重要的是云厂商库存去完开始拉货了

3. 24年EPS应该处在上修通道中，市场上还是有不少空头的，认为估值没有办法justify，看不清normalized EPS是什么水平；这次业绩不跌我是建议空头平仓，多头可能会觉得复苏刚开始，并且STX在SOX里面是lag的，normalized的EPS如果多头先按照8块钱算，那现在的估值也不算很离谱

Earnings Details:

Q2 2024: Revenue: $1.56 bn; EPS: $0.12

Q3 2024: Revenue: $1.65 bn ± $150 mn

EPS: $0.25 ± $0.20 (beat consensus)

Mass Capacity Demand: Expected Improvement

Underutilization Costs: ~$50 mn in March quarter

Key Trends: Aerial Density Growth; High-Capacity Drive Demand Increase; HAMR-Based MosaiQ Products Transition

Cloud-Nearline: Sequential Improvement

VIA Market: Post-Lunar New Year Pickup

Enterprise OEM: U.S. Stabilization, IT Budget Improvement (2024)

Consumer Drives: Seasonal Uptick

Pricing Strategy: Profitability-Focused Adjustments; HAMR: Slightly Higher/Same as CMR; Legacy: Price increases given demand supply dynamics

AI Impact on Storage: Storage Needs Despite Compute Focus; Accelerating Older Tech Replacement with Efficient, High-Capacity Models