海外业绩要点 - WDC, INTC

持续更新，关注脚部自媒体

投资不易，不构成任何建议

近期半导体走势比较强，不确定因素比较多的公司业绩应该避一下，Intel算是个例子，在业绩前就有不少朋友说PC不太行

另外 WDC 看到国内云厂商的需求大幅增加，YoY翻倍

WDC US

Key Takeaways:

1. 业绩数字beat，margin提升速度比预期快，但是盘后股价下跌，可能是因为前期涨幅比较多，或是Intel业绩miss拖累

2. HDD恢复的比flash快，云厂商需求恢复；24年flash bits growth mid-teens，AI推动未来增长

3. 中国市场需求超预期，YoY翻倍，主要来自于云厂商

4. 24年业绩处于上修通道，GM有望恢复到30%，目前看估值大概在历史中位偏上，和其他memory公司相比具有性价比

Earnings Details:

Q2 2024:

Revenue: $3 billion; Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 15.5%; Non-GAAP Loss per Share: $0.69

Cloud Revenue: $1.1 billion (35%, +23% QoQ, -13% YoY)

Client Revenue: $1.1 billion (37%, -2% QoQ, +3% YoY)

Consumer Revenue: $0.8 billion (28%, +15% QoQ, +6% YoY)

Flash Revenue: $1.7 billion (+7% QoQ)

HDD Revenue: $1.4 billion (+14% QoQ)

Gross Margin: Flash 7.9%; HDD 24.8%

Q3 2024 Guidance:

Revenue: $3.2 - $3.4 billion

Gross Margin: 22% - 24%

EPS: $0.05 ± $0.15

Key Trends:

Flash: Inventory management, ASP increases, capital efficiency focus

HDD: Rising near-line demand, ePMR and UltraSMR advancements

Enterprise SSD: Lagging behind HDD recovery

Generative AI: Significant demand driver, especially at edge

Cloud Segment:

Revenue: $1.1 billion (35%)

Growth: +23% QoQ, -13% YoY

Drivers: Increased near-line shipments, better pricing

Performance: First sequential growth in six quarters due to HDD recovery

Client Segment:

Revenue: $1.1 billion (37%)

Growth: -2% QoQ, +3% YoY

Dynamics: Higher Flash ASP, lower flash bit shipments

Market: Driven by client SSDs in PC applications

Consumer Segment:

Revenue: $0.8 billion (28%)

Growth: +15% QoQ, +6% YoY

Influences: Seasonal flash bit shipment strength, higher flash ASPs

Flash Business:

Revenue: $1.7 billion

Growth: +7% QoQ

ASP: 10% increase blended, 7% like-for-like

Bit Shipments: -2% QoQ

Year-over-Year: Slight revenue growth, 21% bit shipment increase

HDD Business:

Revenue: $1.4 billion

Growth: +14% QoQ

Exabyte Shipments: +14%

Average Price/Unit: $122

Year-over-Year: -6% revenue, +2% exabyte shipments

Technology: Rising UltraSMR adoption, significant Q3 shipment increase

General Outlook:

Multi-year growth period ahead, heavily influenced by generative AI

Flash Market Trends:

Bit growth mid-teens percentage for 2024, consistent with 2023

Supply side fab-out bit growth in mid-single-digit percentage

AI's Impact on Storage Demand:

Data Growth: Substantial increase due to generative AI

Edge Computing: 80% of total NAND bit shipments, up from 75% in 2022

China Insights:

Revenue Growth: Significant increase, both sequential and YoY

Hyperscalers: Major contributors to revenue growth

INTC US 

Key Takeaways:

1. Q1数字miss，主要因为FPGA，Mobileye；PC需求还是相对一般；不过公司guide 24年 OoQ和YoY持续增长，感觉预期reset后可以再找机会，无需过度悲观

2. 24年PC市场预期低个位数增长；Accelerator pipeline: Over $2B for 2024, growing.

3. Foundry业务：Lifetime deal value: Over $10B，progressing on advanced nodes

Earnings Details:

Q4 2023 Financials:

Revenue: $15.4B, up 9% sequentially, 10% YoY.

Gross Margin: 48.8%, 230 bps above guidance.

EPS: $0.54, $0.10 above guidance.

Operating Cash Flow: $4.6B.

Net Inventory: Reduced $300M.

Q1 Guidance & 2024 Outlook:

Q1 Revenue: $12.2B - $13.2B.

Q1 Gross Margin: ~44.5%.

Q1 Tax Rate: 13%.

Q1 EPS: $0.13.

2024: Expect revenue, EPS growth each quarter, YoY.

Q1 Revenue Impact: Challenges in Mobileye, PSG, business exits.

FPGA Inventory Correction: Impacts DCAI revenue.

IFS Growth:

Lifetime deal value: Over $10B.

Focus on advanced packaging, strategic growth.

Key Trends:

AI Proliferation: Focus in high-performance computing, enterprise.

Process Technology: Advances in EUV, Intel 3, 4, 18A nodes.

Manufacturing: Global expansion on track.

Order Trends & R&D:

High demand in high-performance, AI segments.

Progress in 18A manufacturing, high-NA EUV tool installation.

CCG Performance:

Strength in gaming, commercial segments.

Record notebook shipments.

Normalized inventory.

2023 PC consumption at 270M units.

2024 PC TAM: Expected low single-digit growth.

DCAI Highlights:

Server business: Solid sequential growth.

Market share: Stable vs. Q3.

2.5M+ units of 4th Gen Xeon shipped.

AI demand driving 4th Gen Xeon.

5th Gen Xeon: Enhanced AI inference performance.

Accelerator pipeline: Over $2B for 2024, growing.

IFS Performance:

Q4 Revenue: $291M.

Focus: Developing world-class systems foundry.

PSG Challenges: Cyclical correction in FPGA market.

AI Accelerators: Gaudi 3: On track for launch, significant advancements expected.