海外业绩要点 - ANET, CDNS, LSCC

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业绩前瞻在星球：

半导体 & 硬件业绩前瞻 20240211

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ANET US 

Not today

Key Takeaways:

1. 如前瞻所写，ANET的业绩上调的timing是关键，这个季度上调的可能性不大

2. 公司整体的guidance和之前基本一样，对buy side来说是miss，2024年还是guide 10-12%，认为真正的800G上量在2025年，相关营收会是至少$750m

3. 股价应该是先跌为敬，短期要看整体市场对AI的情绪如何了，EPS现在25年最多也就算到9块不到，不算便宜，不过其他乱七八糟的公司都起来了，ANET给30x也不能算很过分

4. 公司依然咬定25年才上量，比我自己预期的其实也是慢了1-2季度，不太确定是不是因为云厂的以太网800G会先让contract manufacturer来做，有了解的大哥还麻烦指导指导

Earnings Details:

Q4 2023:

Revenue: $1.54bn

Gross Margin: 65.4%

EPS: $2.08

FY2023 cloud titans: 43% of annual revenue; enterprises: 36%

Outlook & Guidance:

Q1 2024 Revenue: $1.5-$1.56bn

Q1 2024 Gross Margin: ~62%

2024 Revenue Growth: 10-12%, target ~$6.5bn

Highlights:

Order Trends: Strong, driven by cloud titans, enterprise sectors

AI Networking Wins: 4 out of 5 large bids, Ethernet over InfiniBand

AI Revenue Goal: On track for $750mn by 2025

800G Ramp: Expected real production in 2025, reflecting past tech adoption timelines

CNDS US 

Meet is miss

Key Takeaways:

1. 如前瞻所写，公司股价表现强势，估值50x左右，隐含市场预期不低，但是季度间的业绩还是有波动性的

2. Q1小miss，FY24全年踩着sell-side consensus数字给，自然是miss，不过backlog从上个季度5.4bn提升到这个季度6bn，这个数字还不错

3. 长期故事应该还是没问题的，估值不下来多一点应该比较难有超额收益，个人的偏好还是在SNPS，如果被带下来应该会选择+SNPS

Earnings Details:

Q4 2023 Performance:

Revenue: $1,069M (Q4), $4,090M (FY)

Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 42.9% (Q4), 42.0% (FY)

Non-GAAP EPS: $1.38 (Q4), $5.15 (FY)

Cash: $1,008M

Backlog: $6.0B, increase from $5.4bn in Q3

Q1 2024 Guidance:

Revenue: $990M - $1.01B

Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 36.5% - 37.5%

Non-GAAP EPS: $1.10 - $1.14

2024 Outlook:

Revenue Forecast: $4.55B - $4.61B

Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 42% - 43%

Non-GAAP EPS: $5.87 - $5.97

Operating Cash Flow: $1.35B - $1.45B

Key Insights:

Strategic partnerships (Intel Foundry, NVIDIA, Arm) boost ecosystem and innovation.

IP Business: Expected stronger growth in 2024, focus on profitability.

AI Portfolio: Significant 10x adoption growth, indicating demand for AI-driven solutions.

LSCC US

Key Takeaways:

1. 如前瞻所写，FPGA差是真的差，Q1的营收guide miss了sell-side consensus接近20%，应该比buy side也略低点，短期是没啥机会的

2. Q2预期和Q1差不多，认为下半年重回增长，gross margin也有一定的下滑

3. 长期的financial target不变，依旧预期70%+ gross margin

Earnings Details:

Q4 2023:

Revenue: $170.6M, -11% QoQ, -3% YoY

Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 70.4%, -20bps QoQ

Non-GAAP EPS: $0.45, down YoY

Future Outlook & Guidance - Q1 2024:

Revenue: $130M-$150M

Gross Margin: ~69% ± 1%

Q2 performance expected in-line with Q1

Highlights:

Product portfolio expansion

Record design wins, cash operations

Demand softening, Q1 2024 revenue decrease anticipated

H2 2024 revenue growth expected, market conditions, product ramps

Distribution channel inventory pre-pandemic levels

Gross Margin Decline Reasons:

Q4 decline to 70.4%, mix, lower absorption

Mix Impact: Less favorable, industrial & automotive demand softening

Lower Absorption: Reduced production volumes

Future Gross Margin Outlook:

Q1 2024: Gross margins ~69% ± 1%, mix, absorption impacts

Long-term targets: Low-70s percentage points