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Two Major IssuesTest The Industry
两大问题考验行业 ▉
历数整个2020年国际海运及物流业的表现，出口集装箱海运运价无疑是最受关注的话题。
Throughout 2020, the performance of the international shipping and logistics industry, export container shipping rates are undoubtedly the most concerned topic.
上海航运交易所发布的中国出口集装箱运价指数（CCFI）从年初的897.53点，飙升至年底的1658.58点，创历史新高。但是实际的运价涨幅远不止这些，除日韩航线相对平稳外，上海至北美、南美、欧洲基本港的航线运价成倍增长。以“运去哪”平台上的价格为参考，上海至欧洲部分港口40尺高柜的运价，已从往年的2000美元左右，飙升至1万美元以上。
China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) released by Shanghai Shipping Exchange soared from 897.53 points at the beginning of the year to 1658.58 points at the end of the year, a record high. But the actual rate of freight increase is much more than these, in addition to Japan and South Korea route is relatively stable, Shanghai to North America, South America, Europe, the basic port of the route freight multiplied. To "transport to which" platform prices for reference, Shanghai to some European ports 40 feet high container freight prices, has been from the previous year about $ 2,000, soaring to more than 10,000 U.S. dollars.
在运价暴涨的同时，众多航线爆舱缺柜现象也呈常态。尤其用于中国出口的空集装箱陷入极度短缺状态。
At the same time of the price surge, many routes burst cabin lack of cabinet phenomenon is also the norm. Especially for China's exports of empty containers into an extreme shortage of state.
集装箱流转平台ContainerxChange数据显示，从2020年第二季度开始，中国各主要港口CAx（集装箱可用指数）普遍低于0.5，最低时甚至不足0.1。40HQ集装箱尤其短缺，大范围的爆舱缺柜，导致货主预订舱平均需要提前3—4周。
Container flow platform ContainerxChange data show that from the second quarter of 2020, the CAx (container availability index) of China's major ports is generally below 0.5, and the lowest is even less than 0.1. 40HQ containers are particularly short, and the widespread explosion of cabin shortage, resulting in the average need for shippers to book cabin 3-4 weeks in advance.
导致爆舱和缺柜，很重要的一个原因就是疫情使得海外码头操作效率严重下滑，空集装箱流转不易。
Resulting in the explosion and lack of cabinets, an important reason is the epidemic makes overseas terminal operation efficiency seriously decline, the flow of empty containers is not easy.
此外，2020年，国际集装箱班轮准班率大幅下滑。包括Alphaliner、Sea Intelligence等在内的众多机构均发布报告表示，由于大量海外码头工人感染新冠肺炎，作业效率严重下降，从6月份开始，全球集装箱船准班率快速下滑，到11月份时仅有50.1%，比2019年同期下降29.5%，全球集装箱船舶平均延误上升至5天以上。
In addition, in 2020, the international container liner punctuality rate has plummeted. Many agencies, including Alphaliner and Sea Intelligence, have issued reports stating that due to a large number of overseas dock workers infected with New Crown Pneumonia and a serious decline in operational efficiency, the global container ship punctuality rate declined rapidly from June to only 50.1% in November, down 29.5% from the same period in 2019, and the global container ship The average delay rose to more than 5 days.
其中，跨太平洋航线（中国—美国）受影响最大，最低时准班率仅为26.4%，船舶等待靠泊的时间长达1—2周，大量船只和集装箱滞留在码头。
Among them, the trans-Pacific route (China-US) was the most affected, with the lowest on-time rate of only 26.4% and ships waiting for berthing time as long as 1-2 weeks, with a large number of ships and containers stranded at the terminal.
整体而言，上述市场表现暴露出国际海运及物流业面临的两大突出问题。
Overall, the above market performance reveals two prominent issues facing the international maritime and logistics industry.
一是整个供应链缺乏弹性和冗余性。在市场追求效率最高、价格最低的时候，实际上任何的资产配置方都不会为不确定的需求去提前储备冗余的运力和冗余的危机处理能力，这就是整个供应链缺乏弹性和冗余的深层次原因。
First, the entire supply chain lacks elasticity and redundancy. When the market is pursuing the highest efficiency and lowest price, practically no asset allocator will reserve redundant capacity and redundant crisis handling capability in advance for uncertain demand, which is the deep-seated reason for the lack of elasticity and redundancy of the whole supply chain.
二是缺乏即时需求响应的组织。很多货代、物流企业非常习惯的是确定性需求，面对合作时间较长的客户，能够做到需求已知。但是在疫情环境下，需要对客户进行更为快速的响应，这就需要彼此之间的信息分享、解决方案制定需要更为高效。但显然，国内货代物流企业较为欠缺这方面的能力。
Second, the lack of immediate demand response organization. Many freight forwarders and logistics companies are very accustomed to deterministic demand, and in the face of longer cooperation with customers, they are able to achieve known needs. But in the epidemic environment, the need for a more rapid response to customers, which requires the sharing of information between each other, solution development needs to be more efficient. But obviously, the domestic freight forwarding and logistics enterprises are relatively lack of this ability.
Three Changes Worthy Of Attention
三个变化值得关注 ▉
当然，虽然疫情给整个国际物流市场带来了很多不便，但客观上也助推行业发生了根本性的变化。
Of course, although the epidemic has brought a lot of inconvenience to the entire international logistics market, it has also objectively helped to bring about fundamental changes in the industry.
变化主要有三点。
There are three main changes.
首先是船公司、货代等产业链各角色加快数字化步伐。在集装箱进出口物流领域，2020年数字化在线订舱的比例已经超过了15%。此前，业界的普遍观点是需要10年时间才能做到这一比例。可以说，疫情大大加速了整个行业数字化的步伐，无法跟上这一趋势的货代物流企业可能会被加速淘汰。
First of all, shipping companies, freight forwarders and other industry chain players to accelerate the pace of digitalization. In the field of container import and export logistics, the proportion of digital online booking in 2020 has exceeded 15%. Previously, the general view of the industry was that it would take 10 years to achieve this ratio. It can be said that the epidemic has greatly accelerated the pace of digitization of the entire industry, and freight forwarding and logistics companies that cannot keep up with this trend may be eliminated at an accelerated pace.
其次，货主对于标准化服务、确定性服务有着更强烈的需求。以前，很多货主追求的是拿到最低的运价，但随着这一轮大范围爆舱、缺柜情况的发生，货主不再单纯追求价格最低，而是追求一个更具保障性、确定性、标准化的服务。所以从这个角度来说，当市场出现波动的时候，是一个构建未来国际物流服务标准和双向确定性的最佳契机。
Secondly, cargo owners have a stronger demand for standardized service and certainty service. In the past, many cargo owners pursued to get the lowest freight rate, but with the occurrence of this round of widespread explosion and shortage of containers, cargo owners no longer simply pursue the lowest price, but pursue a more secure, certainty and standardized service. So from this point of view, when the market fluctuates, it is a perfect opportunity to build the future international logistics service standard and two-way certainty.
最后，“中国制造”的地位进一步加强，为国际物流市场构筑坚实基础。在疫情发生前，因为中美贸易战等因素，业界有观点认为“中国制造”的地位要被东南亚等地区国家所代替。但是通过这次疫情可以看到，我国卓越的体制及完善的制造业产业链，是世界上任何一个国家所无法快速替代的。“中国制造”地位的不断巩固，也为整个国际物流产业未来的长期发展奠定了强有力的基石。
Finally, the status of "Made in China" has been further strengthened and a solid foundation has been built for the international logistics market. Before the epidemic, because of the trade war between China and the United States and other factors, there were views in the industry that the status of "Made in China" would be replaced by countries in Southeast Asia and other regions. However, the epidemic has shown that China's excellent system and perfect manufacturing industry chain cannot be replaced by any country in the world quickly. The consolidation of the status of "Made in China" has also laid a strong foundation for the future long-term development of the international logistics industry.
Four Trends Not To Be Missed
四大趋势不容错过 ▉
经历了不平凡的2020年，业界更为关注2021年的海运运价、舱位状况等短期市场表现，同时也对于整个行业未来的长期发展趋势有所期待。
After a remarkable 2020, the industry is more concerned about the short-term market performance such as ocean freight rates and space conditions in 2021, while also looking forward to the future long-term development trend of the whole industry.
短期来看，在海运运价方面，随着新冠疫苗的推出，以及一些疫情较为严重的国家相继加强抗疫举措，会让海外疫情得到一定程度的控制。由此运价上涨趋势将放缓，甚至出现小幅下降。不过在2021年第二季度之前，市场整体运价仍将持续在高位徘徊。舱位箱况方面，随着集装箱周转率的回升，缺舱、缺柜情况会逐步好转，第三季度开始可能有明显的改善。尤其值得注意的是，由于疫苗运输需求将急剧增长，2021年空运市场的运输资源或将出现较为紧张的局面。
In the short term, in terms of ocean freight rates, with the launch of the new crown vaccine and the successive strengthening of anti-epidemic initiatives in some countries with more serious epidemics, it will allow overseas epidemics to be controlled to a certain extent. As a result, the upward trend of freight rates will slow down, or even show a slight decline. However, before the second quarter of 2021, the overall market prices will continue to hover at a high level. In terms of the condition of the hold container, with the container turnover rate picking up, the situation of lack of hold and container will gradually improve, and there may be significant improvement from the third quarter. It is especially noteworthy that the transportation resources in the air transportation market may be more tense in 2021 due to the demand for vaccine transportation will increase sharply.
从长远来看，整个业内将迎来四方面的大趋势。
In the long run, the industry as a whole will see four major trends.
首先，船公司与货代物流公司的边界将更加模糊，共同朝着端到端综合物流服务迈进。
First, the boundaries between shipping companies and freight forwarding and logistics companies will be more blurred, moving together toward end-to-end integrated logistics services.
其次，专业的定义不断拓展。就目前来看，单一服务的专业性正在被综合服务的专业性取代。而且产出服务的专业性也变成了链接服务的专业性。
Second, the definition of professionalism is expanding. As far as we can see, the specialization of single services is being replaced by the specialization of integrated services. And the specialization of output services has become the specialization of linked services.
因为当企业从单一服务转向综合服务的时候，会发现很多要素供给不足。于是，部分优秀企业在加强自身服务优势的同时，还能够链接更多提供优质服务的供应商。如此，这些企业就从单一服务的专业性变成了综合服务的专业性。
Because when companies move from a single service to a comprehensive service, they will find that many elements are undersupplied. As a result, some of the best companies are able to link more suppliers who provide quality services while strengthening their own service advantages. In this way, these enterprises turn from single service expertise to integrated service expertise.
举例而言，当某个企业拥有链接能力时，接到物流订单后，实际处理其实是由专业的合作方和供应商进行的。在此过程中，需要订单发起方快速响应需求，并予以高效解决。
For example, when a company has linkage capabilities, the actual processing of logistics orders received is actually carried out by professional partners and suppliers. In this process, the order initiator needs to respond quickly to the demand and solve it efficiently.
再次，数字化将成为不可逆转的趋势。经过这一轮疫情的考验，很多物流企业都认识到了数字化服务的重要性，根据权威机构的预测，预计在2—3年内，全行业电子报价、电子订舱、线上可视化（E-quoting、E-booking、E-tracking）比例将达到40%以上，数字化将成为每一个中大型国际供应链企业的标配，成为企业创新突破的着力点。
Once again, digitalization will become an irreversible trend. After the test of this round of epidemic, many logistics enterprises have realized the importance of digital service. According to the prediction of authoritative institutions, it is expected that in 2-3 years, the proportion of industry-wide e-quotation, e-booking and online visualization (E-quoting, E-booking, E-tracking) will reach more than 40%, and digitalization will become Digitalization will become the standard for every medium and large international supply chain enterprise, and become the focus point of enterprise innovation and breakthrough.
最后，从“中国制造”到“中国人制造”，将涌现出一批具备全球化服务能力的中国供应链企业。
Finally, from "Made in China" to "Made by Chinese", a number of Chinese supply chain enterprises with globalization service capability will emerge.
众所周知，目前，真正实现全球化的中国货代物流企业少之又少。以前是“Made in China”，但未来随着更多中国企业、中国产品走出国门，在世界各国建立生产基地，将变成“Made by Chinese”。而这势必要求中国的物流、供应链企业也要走出国门，建立覆盖全球的运输网络，这样才能更好地支撑中国企业走出去。预计在3～5年内，势必会出现几个这样具备全球化服务能力的中国供应链物流企业。
As we all know, at present, the real globalization of Chinese freight forwarding and logistics enterprises are few and far between. In the past, it was "Made in China", but in the future, as more Chinese enterprises and Chinese products go abroad and establish production bases in countries all over the world, it will become "Made by Chinese". This inevitably requires China's logistics and supply chain enterprises to go abroad and establish a global transportation network, so as to better support Chinese enterprises to go abroad. It is expected that in 3 to 5 years, several Chinese supply chain logistics enterprises with globalization service capability will appear.
关于 ATA Freight
成立于1996年，总部位于纽约，是全球领先的物流和货运代理服务提供商，专注于创新的航运管理解决方案。
Founded in 1996 and headquartered in New York, We are the leading global logistics & freight forwarding services provider, specializing in innovative shipping management solutions.
从纽约的一个办事处开始，经过这些年的稳步发展，我们在美国、土耳其、印度、中国、墨西哥和俄罗斯设立了30多个办事处，在全球拥有400多名团队成员。正因为团队成员的努力才能让我们达到现在的规模，但我们的目标不止于此。
We started with one office in New York and Over the course of these years we have steadily expanded, opening locations throughout the USA, Turkey, India, China, Mexico & Russia with 30+ offices and more than 400+ team members globally. We like where we are today, but aim to do a lot more.
