01 卷首语
“不要温柔地走进那个牛市。”
当ETH再次站上5000美元、Solana TVL新高、Sui主网刚满两岁时，我们决定用一篇投研指南，把公链赛道一次性讲透：
• 为什么以太坊仍是“结算层王者”
• Solana、Sui、Celestia等新兴Layer1到底在革谁的命
• 一张打分表，帮你在30分钟内给任何新公链做估值
02 赛道地图
👉以太坊生态：
• L1：ETH 2.0
• L2四大天王：Arbitrum、Optimism、zkSync和StarkWare
➡️高性能单体链：Solana、Avalanche、Fantom
❄️新一代Move系：Sui、Aptos
🚀模块化DA层：Celestia、Avail、EigenDA
03 三维评估框架
维度A 技术前瞻（30%）
👉 TPS/最终性、去中心化程度、客户端多样性
维度B 经济模型（25%）
👉通胀率、销毁机制、MEV分配、真实收益
维度C 生态活力（45%）
👉开发者月活、TVL增速、旗舰DApp、VC持仓
04 5条重点公链拆解
（速读版，括号内为最新数据，来源：L2Beat、DefiLlama、Electric Capital Developer Report 2025）
📰以太坊（ETH）
• 技术前瞻：Danksharding（EIP-4844）已进入Devnet 8，Proto-Danksharding预计2025Q4上线，Rollup成本降90%
• 经济模型：年通胀率-0.4%（EIP-1559+PoS），质押率27%，LSD赛道占质押ETH 42%
• 生态活力：L2总TVL 210亿美元，Arbitrum独占42%；开发者月活>5,000人，稳居第一
📰Solana（SOL）
• 技术前瞻：Firedancer客户端测试网TPS峰值120万；本地费市场+并行EVM解决拥堵
• 经济模型：通胀率逐年递减至1.5%，50%交易费销毁；真实质押APY 7.8%
• 生态活力：TVL 58亿美元，24h DEX量已超以太坊L1；DePIN+AI项目扎堆
📰Arbitrum（ARB）
• 技术前瞻：Nitro+Stylus=WASM兼容Rust/C++；BoLD去中心化验证2025Q3上线
• 经济模型：国库持币>34亿美元，收入10%回购ARB；治理代币无通胀
• 生态活力：Orbit L3链已部署>30条，GMX、Pendle等原生协议持续吸金
📰Sui（SUI）
• 技术前瞻：对象模型+Narwhal内存池，单分片理论TPS 297k；2025Q4启用存储基金
• 经济模型：5亿SUI锁仓至2027，链上存储费反哺质押者
• 生态活力：TVL 7.8亿美元，游戏/社交类DApp增速最快；韩国市场占用户40%
📰Celestia（TIA）
• 技术前瞻：数据可用性采样（DAS）+主权Rollup，已接入Manta、Dymension等20+链
• 经济模型：按需DA付费+通胀递减（首年8%→第8年1.5%）
• 生态活力：Rollup-as-a-Service创业潮，TIA质押空投预期持续
05 一张打分表
满分5★
公链
|
技术前瞻
|
经济模型
|
生态活力
|
综合得分
|
ETH
|
★★★★☆
|
★★★★★
|
★★★★★
|
4.7
|
SOL
|
★★★★★
|
★★★★☆
|
★★★★☆
|
4.6
|
ARB
|
★★★★☆
|
★★★★☆
|
★★★★☆
|
4.4
|
SUI
|
★★★★☆
|
★★★☆☆
|
★★★☆☆
|
3.9
|
TIA
|
★★★☆☆
|
★★★☆☆
|
★★★☆☆
|
3.5
|
06 2025-2027投资路线图
• 2025H2：坎昆升级落地，L2手续费再降80%，ARB/OP可能迎“价值重估”
• 2026：Solana Firedancer主网上线，若稳定性验证，SOL有机会挑战ETH市值20%
• 2027：模块化DA层价格战，TIA需证明真实收入>通胀补贴
07 风险提示
❕宏观：美联储利率政策>加密叙事
❕技术：ZK证明系统尚未经历大规模攻击
08 彩蛋：如何5分钟速评一条新公链？
① 打开GitHub，看核心仓库近一月Commit次数>100？
② 打开DefiLlama，看TVL是否连续3个月增长>20%？
③ 打开Twitter，搜索“项目名称+scam”看负面情绪是否可控？
④ 打开TokenUnlocks，看未来6个月抛压<流通盘5%？
⑤ 打开治理论坛，看是否有至少3个活跃社区提案在讨论？
如果5问4YES，可放入观察仓。
END
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本文不构成投资建议。
Evaluating the Potential of Emerging Layer 1 Projects, From Ethereum to Emerging Layer 1 Projects
—Traveling Through Cycles, Searching for the Next Beta
01 Foreword
"Don't Go Gentle into That Bull Market."
With ETH once again above $5,000, Solana's TVL reaching a new high, and the Sui mainnet just turning two, we've decided to use this investment research guide to thoroughly explore the public chain landscape:
• Why Ethereum Remains the "Settlement Layer King"
• Who Are Emerging Layer 1 Projects Like Solana, Sui, and Celestia Really Disrupting?
• A Scoring Chart to Help You Value Any New Public Chain in 30 Minutes
02 Track Map
👉Ethereum Ecosystem:
• Layer 1: ETH 2.0 (PoS + Sharding Roadmap)
• The Four Kings of Layer 2: Arbitrum, Optimism, zkSync, and StarkWare
➡️High-Performance Monolithic Chains: Solana, Avalanche, Fantom
❄️Next-Generation Move: Sui, Aptos
🚀Modular DA Layer: Celestia, Avail, EigenDA
03 Three-Dimensional Evaluation Framework
Dimension A: Technical Outlook (30%)
👉TPS/Finality, Decentralization, Client Diversity
Dimension B: Economic Model (25%)
👉Inflation Rate, Burn Mechanism, MEV Distribution, Real Returns
Dimension C: Ecosystem Vitality (45%)
👉Monthly Active Developers, TVL Growth Rate, Flagship DApps, VC Holdings
04 Breakdown of 5 Key Public Chains
(Quick Read, latest data in brackets, source: L2Beat, DefiLlama, Electric Capital Developer Report 2025)
📰Ethereum (ETH)
• Technical Outlook: Danksharding (EIP-4844) has entered Devnet 8, Proto-Danksharding is expected to launch in Q4 2025, and Rollup costs will be reduced by 90%.
• Economic Model: Annual inflation rate -0.4% (EIP-1559 + PoS), staking rate 27%, LSD track accounts for 42% of staked ETH
• Ecosystem Vitality: L2 total TVL is $21 billion, with Arbitrum alone accounting for 42%; with over 5,000 monthly active developers, it remains in first place.
📰Solana (SOL)
• Technical Outlook: Firedancer client testnet reaches a peak TPS of 1.2 million; local fee market + parallel EVM resolves congestion
• Economic Model: Inflation rate decreases annually to 1.5%, 50% transaction fee destruction; real staking APY 7.8%
• Ecosystem Vitality: TVL $5.8 billion, 24h DEX volume has surpassed Ethereum L1; DePIN and AI projects are flocking.
📰Arbitrum (ARB)
• Technical Outlook: Nitro + Stylus = WASM compatibility with Rust/C++; BoLD decentralized verification launched in Q3 2025
• Economic Model: Treasury holdings >$3.4 billion, 10% of revenue repurchased to ARB; governance token inflation-free
• Ecosystem Vitality: Orbit L3 chains deployed >30, with native protocols like GMX and Pendle continuing to attract capital
📰Sui (SUI)
• Technical Outlook: Object model + Narwhal memory pool, theoretical TPS of 297k per shard; Storage Fund launched in Q4 2025
• Economic Model: 500 million SUI locked until 2027, with on-chain storage fees returning to stakers
• Ecosystem Vitality: TVL $780 million, with gaming/social DApps experiencing the fastest growth; South Korea accounts for 40% of users.
📰Celestia (TIA)
• Technology Outlook: Data Availability Sampling (DAS) + sovereign Rollup, integrated with over 20 chains including Manta and Dymension
• Economic Model: On-demand DA payment + diminishing inflation (8% in the first year → 1.5% in the eighth year)
• Ecosystem Vitality: Rollup-as-a-Service startup boom, TIA staking airdrops expected to continue
05 A Scoring Sheet
Full score: 5★
Public Chain
|
Technology Outlook
|
Economic Model
|
ecological vitality
|
Comprehensive score
|
ETH
|
★★★★☆
|
★★★★★
|
★★★★★
|
4.7
|
SOL
|
★★★★★
|
★★★★☆
|
★★★★☆
|
4.6
|
ARB
|
★★★★☆
|
★★★★☆
|
★★★★☆
|
4.4
|
SUI
|
★★★★☆
|
★★★☆☆
|
★★★☆☆
|
3.9
|
TIA
|
★★★☆☆
|
★★★☆☆
|
★★★☆☆
|
3.5
|
06 2025-2027 Investment Roadmap
• 2025H2: Cancun upgrades implemented, L2 fees reduced by another 80%, ARB/OP may experience a "revaluation"
• 2026: Solana Firedancer mainnet launch. If stability is verified, SOL has a chance to challenge 20% of ETH's market capitalization
• 2027: Modular DA layer price war, TIA needs to prove real income > inflation subsidy
07 Risk Warning
❕ Macro: Federal Reserve interest rate policy > crypto narrative
❕ Technology: ZK proof systems have not experienced large-scale attacks
❕ Regulation: The US SEC's characterization of staking services remains undecided
08 Easter Egg: How to quickly evaluate a new public chain in 5 minutes?
① Open GitHub and check if the core repository has > 100 commits in the past month. ② Open DefiLlama and check if TVL has grown by >20% for three consecutive months.
③ Open Twitter and search "project name + scam" to see if negative sentiment is manageable.
④ Open TokenUnlocks and check if selling pressure will be <5% of circulating shares over the next six months.
⑤ Open the governance forum and check if there are at least three active community proposals being discussed.
If you answer yes to 4 out of 5 questions, place the project on the watchlist.
END
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This article does not constitute investment advice.