August Imported Polybutadiene Market Analysis

In August 2017, the import volume of polybutadiene was 19.4kt in China, which remained flat M-O-M and climbed by 16% Y-O-Y. The total import volume of polybutadiene was 190kt from January to August 2017, up 31% Y-O-Y.

The import volume from traditional origins slid.

The total import volume of polybutadiene from South Korea and Japan dropped by 10%–20% M-O-M from January to August 2017. There were various factors affecting the volume, including prices of different batches, time and monthly/quarterly/annual corporative modes with downstream producers.

Other origins rose with great potential.

The import volume from Saudi Arabia jumped to the fourth spot. The total import volume was 17.8kt from January to August, which increased by nearly 3 thousand times Y-O-Y. Some downstream plants started to use resources imported from Saudi Arabia, due to its cost advantage.

The import volume of neodymium polybutadiene (NdBR) soared.

The total import volume of polybutadiene from Singapore was 27kt from January to August. There were NdBR units in Taiwan Area, South Korea, Czech and the U.K. Thus, the import volume of NdBR in China was estimated to exceed 30kt from January to August.

SCI estimates that the monthly import volume in September and October will probably increase M-O-M, bolstered by the bullish trend of Asian synthetic rubber market in August–September and the intensive orders for September and October imported resources. However, the monthly import volume will find resistance at 20kt in September or October. The synthetic rubber market slumped from mid-September. Thus, SCI holds that China’s import volume of synthetic rubber in Q4 of 2017 is unlikely to catch up with that in the same period of last year.