Q1, 2018: Collapsed Import Volume & Soared Export Volume of PBR

The import volume of polybutadiene totaled 52.7kt from January to March 2018, down 38.5% Y-O-Y. Hereinto, that from South Korea still ranked first but went down over 33% Y-O-Y. The import volume from Saudi Arabia also dropped by 65% Y-O-Y, but the average import price was still the lowest in the top 10.

Major reasons for the decrease were as follows. 1. Domestic supply was sufficient. China’s output of HCBR totaled 233kt from January to March 2018, up 12% Y-O-Y. 2. Domestic prices were much lower than import prices. In February, CIF China main ports wasw $1,700/mt. It was equivalent to over RMB 13,300/mt, far higher than the EXW price of RMB 12,700/mt in China in February. 3. The high import prices increased trade risks. Some importers said that import polybutadiene prices were much higher than natural rubber prices, and there was uncertainty in arbitrage.

Another shocking data was the export volume in Q1, 2018. The total export volume was 12.4kt, up 136% Y-O-Y. Hereinto, the export volume to Thailand was 6.295kt, up 385% Y-O-Y and much higher than that to Vietnam. The average export price was less than $1,685/mt. On the one hand, polybutadiene was mainly exported to Thailand via the mode of processing trade with imported materials. In the meantime, the import volume of butadiene from Thailand was 8.962kt. Importing feedstock and exporting synthetic rubber contributed to the export volume increase. On the other hand, the plants of Linglong Tire, Hangzhou Zhongce Rubber and Double Coin Tyre ran normally in Thailand. The demand for polybutadiene also pushed up the export volume.