Q1 2020 China’s SBR Import Volume Inched Up
Influenced by the public health event, China’s and foreign SBR import and export in Q1, 2020 witnessed changes in the volume and origin. This news mainly analyzed the Y-O-Y change of China’s SBR import volume in Q1, 2020 and made a forecast of China’s SBR import volume in Q2, 2020 based on current market performance.
The first quarter of each year is the quarter with the lowest SBR import volume in China, and 2020 is no exception. In Q1, 2020, China’s SBR import volume was 91kt, up above 7% Y-O-Y, and it was the quarter with relatively normal growth rate of import volume, besides Q1 of 2016 and 2017. This was because the imported resources that should have arrived in January and February was delayed until March.
As seen from the table above, South Korea, Russia, Poland and Singapore were the Top 4 origins of China’s SBR imports. Therein, the import volume from South Korea and Singapore dropped notably Y-O-Y, and that from Poland rose greatly, with the Y-O-Y change rate of over 70%. About 70% of imported SBR resources from Poland was processing trade with imported materials, and the average price was $1,200-1,250/mt. Tire enterprises in Shandong and Zhejiang took up 80% of imported resources from Poland. China’s SBR import volume from Thailand dropped greatly, mainly as Thailand’s SBR was not self-sufficient. In early 2020, the public health event impacted the work resumption of China’s tire enterprises, resulting the transfer of some tire export orders to Southeast Asia. Thailand was the country where China’s tire enterprises set up the most overseas plants, and Thailand gave priority to supply SBR for its own market. Thus, the SBR import volume from Thailand in Q1 dropped by over 30%, and about over 90% of imported resources from Thailand was SSBR.
According to overseas media reports, from mid-March to early May, there were more than 10 large tire enterprises at abroad suspended production influenced by the public health event, and over 30 foreign tire plants reduced output or suspended production. Foreign SBR producers produced with operating rate reduction or basically maintained normal production. Thus, in the context that foreign tire producers had not resumed production, some considered to export SBR resources to China. According to the prices of imported shiploads monitored by SCI, up to the end of April, the reference prices of some 1502 resources were $800-900/mt, equivalent to RMB 7,000-7,500/mt which was RMB 500-1,000/mt lower than China’s 1502 prices. The arbitrage space for foreign SBR exported to China is initially formed. It is predicted that China’s SBR import volume in Q2, 2020 will be 130kt or so, up about 30% Y-O-Y.
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