Molasses-Based Ethanol Unit Startup Schedule
In November, the 2020-2021 crushing season is approaching, and more than 10 sugar mills start crushing in Guangxi. In H2 November, more sugar mills will start crushing intensively. Market participants paid attention to the crushing of sugar mills and the startups of molasses-based ethanol producers. Although the sugarcane plantings trend up, the sugar output during the 2020-2021 crushing season is estimated to decline affected by the dry weather. It is expected that the sugar output in Guangxi will be about 6,000kt, unchanged from the last crushing season, and the molasses output will be around 2,000kt.
At present, some ex-works prices of molasses hover at highs and exceed RMB 1,200/mt. Although the self-delivery price of molasses-based ethanol in Guangxi is around RMB 7,200/mt, it may close to the mainstream price in South China after the intensive restarts. As of November 23, the cassava-based ethanol prices in Guangxi were RMB 6,900-7,000/mt, so molasses-based ethanol producers suffered obvious profit pressure. Thus, most producers showed resistance to the high prices of molasses and were cautious about procurement.
The startup plans of some molasses-based ethanol producers in Guangxi are as follows. The molasses price trend should be focused on, because the high feedstock prices may cause some molasses-based ethanol unit startups to be delayed.
