Mega Refining & Chemical Complex to Introduce New Balance in Petrochemical Industry
I. Refining Capacity Burst & Chemical Product Self-Sufficiency Degree Boost
1. Mega Refining Projects Support Oil Refining Capacity to Spark
Recently, SCI introduced the status of China’s major refining and chemical integration projects (see more at https://intl.sci99.com/n/4/577047.html). This time, SCI will give an outlook of China’s future oil refining and chemical industry.
According to SCI’s statistics, up to 2020, China’s crude oil processing capacity reached 931 million mt/a, up 2.61% Y-O-Y. If all the proposed and under-construction oil refining projects with undetermined commissioning dates are put into operation before 2026, China’s oil refining capacity will reach about 1,290 million mt/a by 2025.
Meanwhile, a large amount of oil refining capacity is eliminated successively. In Shandong, Yulong Petrochemical is responsible for promoting the industrial structural adjustment at independent refineries, boosting the elimination of backward capacity. In May 2020, Shandong Kinshi Bitumen started unit dismantlement, and it became the first independent refinery began capacity integration for Yulong Petrochemical. Another 9 independent refineries, including Shandong Yuhuang Shengshi Chemical and Shandong Befar Binyang Petrochemical, will begin unit capacity integration for Yulong Petrochemical as well in the next four years. The total oil refining capacity of the ten refineries mentioned above is 30 million mt/a. If the capacity integration proceeds as planned, by 2025, China’s oil refining capacity will be 1,260 million mt/a.
Together with the growth in oil refining capacity, China’s ethylene capacity keeps increasing as well. According to SCI’s statistics, by the end of 2020, China’s ethylene capacity will be nearly 37 million mt/a, and by 2025, China’s ethylene capacity will grow to about 59 million mt/a, with a compound annual growth rate at 9.78%. The rise in ethylene capacity will also promote the development of its downstream industries. As the most important downstream industry of ethylene, the capacity of PE in China is estimated to reach 34.2 million mt/a by 2025, and the capacity of EO, which is the second largest downstream industry of ethylene, is predicted to reach 6.78 million mt/a by 2025. Moreover, the capacity of MEG is expected to surge as well. Specifically the MEG capacity is likely to reach 16.54 million mt/a at the end of 2020 and hit 29.43 million mt/a by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate at 12.22%.
