China SBR & PBR Prices Remain in an Uptrend
Introduction: After the Spring Festival holiday, within four working days, China’s SBR and PBR price rose by 7.87% and 10.62% respectively. Therein, the SBR price hit a new high from 2019, and the PBR price notched a new record from 2020. The price increment and speed exceeded market expectations. China’s SBR and PBR prices still show potential to trend up due to the following reasons.
In the first half of 2021, the influencing output of SBR and PBR caused by the scheduled maintenance is estimated at 62.5kt. Nanjing Yangzi Petrochemical and Rubber and Bridgestone (Huizhou) Synthetic Rubber shut units down due to special factors, so the unit restart date is to be determined currently. The monthly influencing output of SBR and PBR remains at 22kt or so. In the first half of 2021, the supply of SBR and PBR is not abundant, and the influencing extent on SBR output is expected to be stronger than that on PBR output.
Rising prices of NR futures at the SHFE, butadiene and styrene
Feedstock: Starting from mid-March, some China’s butadiene units will undergo maintenance. According to rough statistics, in the first half of 2021, China’s output loss of butadiene will reach around 90kt due to unit maintenance, and the supply of butadiene is predicted to decrease to some extent. Moreover, from the perspective of the butadiene industrial chain, its price benchmark is low. Besides, in the context that most downstream users have a low feedstock inventory, there is a certain demand for butadiene. Thus, the butadiene price is predicted to move up. Styrene units in Europe and the U.S. are concentrated in shutdowns, and the international styrene market performs strongly. Moreover, the increase in Chinese-made styrene supply is limited, while the demand is predicted to increase. Thus, the feedstock styrene price is predicted to continue to rise.
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