Ethanol Import Volume Increased in 2021 While to Decline in 2022
In 2021, China imported 652.4kt of ethanol, reaching the second high in the recent five years. The import volume of edible and industrial ethanol was 220.3kt, and that of fuel ethanol was 432.1kt. The import arbitrage opportunities and changes in China’s domestic supply improved China’s import volume of ethanol.
As for the edible and industrial ethanol, the increment in the import volume was mainly due to the arbitrage opportunities. The monthly import volume of edible and industrial ethanol was only less than 10kt in November and December, and the highest one reached 31.4kt in September. Pakistan and Brazil were the main origins of China’s imported ethanol, with an import volume of 134.3kt and 71.9kt respectively.
As for the fuel ethanol, the increment in the import volume was caused by the import arbitrage opportunities and output losses caused by unit removal in China. The highest monthly import volume was 111.1kt in April, and the lowest one was 55.4kt in October. As one production line in Anhui was removed and the rigid demand for fuel ethanol recovered in 2021, China’s domestic supply couldn’t meet the demand. Therefore, the import volume of fuel ethanol increased in 2021. The U.S. was the major origin of China’s imported fuel ethanol, with an import volume of 425.2kt.
In 2022, although the crude oil prices will stay at highs in H2, which will be beneficial to the development of bio-energy, the closed import arbitrage window will lead to the decline in the import volume in 2022. In addition, it’s estimated that some newly added capacity will be put into production in China, so the supply growth will exceed the demand growth. Therefore, the supply will be ample and there’s no need to import ethanol in a large volume.
All information provided by SCI is for reference only,which shall not be reproduced without permission.
Please click "Read more" for the full article.
