2021 Propylene Supply-Demand Pattern and Future Change Trend
Lead: In recent years, the supply-demand pattern of propylene has gradually transferred from tight balance to loose supply because the growth rate of supply was higher than that of demand. The import volume of propylene dwindled after reaching a record high, but the export volume rose significantly. The factors influencing propylene market prices also changed.
In 2021, both the supply and demand of propylene continued to ramp up, and the propylene market was still under short supply. The capacity and output of propylene grew Y-O-Y, as the newly added capacity was successively released. Also, the demand volume of propylene increased with much newly added capacity of downstream products. In addition, the import volume of propylene inched down Y-O-Y, as the supply of China-origin propylene increased. The arbitrage window for deep-sea resources was opened, and the export volume of propylene surged Y-O-Y.
Propylene capacity and output continuously expanded, while the import volume edged down Y-O-Y.
Chart 1 2017-2021 China Propylene Capacity Comparison
Propylene capacity continued to expand in 2021, and the total capacity was estimated at 52,000kt/a, up 16.15% Y-O-Y. The capacity expansion gradually accelerated, and there was much newly added capacity of refining-chemical integration and PDH, which showed an obvious trend of diversification, integration and scale. In terms of regional layout of capacity, East China and Shandong were still the most important markets, and the rapid release of capacity gradually reduced the regional supply gap, which attracted more attention of players and had greater influence. In terms of process, the capacity proportion of PDH process increased more, while that of catalytic cracking and CTO processes declined obviously. The capacity proportion of steam cracking process was stable.
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