Deadlocked NBR Market Price
1. Market Price
2. Market Review
This month, the NBR market price was deadlocked after the increase, and the price fluctuated downwards in H2 of April. In April, PetroChina Lanzhou Petrochemical conducted maintenance over its NBR unit, and the inventory at producer was not high, so the supply side supported the NBR market. However, due to the unsmooth logistics and transportation, enterprises in some regions reduced their operating rates or stopped production, so the inquiry and procurement from the demand side were poor. The overall transaction progress slowed down. In H2 of April, prices were lowered appropriately in the trade link to promote sales, and the premium space of some mainstream grades was compressed. Taking 3305E produced by PetroChina Lanzhou Petrochemical as an example, the reference offer was about RMB 24,200-24,300/mt (self-delivery, including tax), down 1.42% from the closing price last month. The average price from April 1 to April 27 was RMB 24,624/mt, up 1.99% from the average price last month.
3. Market Forecast
Supply: Next month, the overall output of Chinese-made goods will increase. PetroChina Lanzhou Petrochemical plans to conduct maintenance over its 15kt/a for about 25 days from May 5. The commissioning of the new 35kt/a unit is postponed to H2 of May, and it still needs some time for resources release. The inventory at some producers will not be high, so the supply of Chinese-made goods will be bullish. At the same time, the external environment is uncertain, and the circulation of some imported resources from Europe is not smooth. However, due to the appropriate amount of stocking up at low prices in the trade link, the release of goods has a phased drag on the market.
Demand: Demand in different downstream industries will be different. Most downstream producers will consume feedstock inventory to maintain normal turnover. On the one hand, the external situation, force majeure and the small supply of NBR support the relatively high price, so downstream willingness to take goods in batches is not high. On the other hand, there are differences in logistics and transportation in various regions, and the operating rate in the local end products field is thwarted, the recovery time is to be determined. The trading atmosphere in the market is slightly weak. With the resumption of transportation in H2 of the month, it is expected that the market will improve. SCI will pay attention to the recovery of actual market demand.
Next month, the NBR market price will fluctuate downwards.
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