2021 China Butadiene Import Slid but Export Advanced
Introduction: In 2021, China’s butadiene import and export pattern has been notably adjusted, with fewer imports but more exports. As China’s butadiene supply advances constantly, China will be less dependent on imported butadiene resources, but the export volume will see a further hike.
From 2017 to 2021, except for 2020, the overall import volume of butadiene in China remained in a downtrend. In 2020, affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, batches of deep-sea butadiene cargoes were shipped to the Asian butadiene market for arbitrage. Thus, China’s butadiene imports surged. In the recent two years, with China’s fresh capacity coming online, China’s butadiene self-sufficiency improved, and the import dependence degree dwindled somewhat. In 2021, the Asian butadiene price kept firm, strongly bolstered by the demand in the U.S. Asian butadiene prices didn’t have better advantages over China’s butadiene prices. Thus, China’s downstream enterprises showed less demand for imported resources. In 2021, China imported around 248kt of butadiene, down 45.5% Y-O-Y.
From the perspective of import origins, the imported butadiene resources from the Middle East still ranked first, accounting for around 28% of the total, followed by South Korea, Singapore, Holland, China’s Taiwan and Thailand. The import volume of butadiene from other regions accounted for a small proportion. As seen from the import receipt and delivery places, as the main downstream consumption places of butadiene in China, Jiangsu and Zhejiang ranked first with the largest butadiene imports, followed by Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and Shandong.
In 2021, the total export volume of butadiene in China reached around 154kt, up 616%. Within this year, as China’s butadiene supply was relatively sufficient, the butadiene price was at a low level. Yet, there was a supply gap in South Korea and the U.S. China’s butadiene export space also enlarged. Thus, the export volume of butadiene in China saw an upsurge. At present, China’s butadiene exports mainly flow to South Korea, and the export volume to other countries is limited.
In 2022, fewer imports but more exports will continue in China’s butadiene market. A total of 900kt/a fresh butadiene capacity will come on stream, which will replenish China’s butadiene market somewhat. Besides, maintenance plans will decline notably compared with previous years. China’s butadiene self-sufficiency will improve. In the overseas market, foreign butadiene units will take maintenance intensively in 2022. Affected by that, Asian butadiene prices will remain high. Thus, batches of Chinese-made butadiene resources will be exported for arbitrage. China’s butadiene export volume will see a further increase, but the growth rate may slow down.
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