China Methanol Import Volume Anticipated to Rise in May
In April, China’s methanol import volume was estimated at 924.7kt, down 208.6kt or 18.41% M-O-M. Some methanol units in the Middle East and South America were shut down unexpectedly, resulting in supply gap in the global consumption market. Thus, the supply of non-Iranian resources decreased. In addition, the actual release time of imported cargoes was extended in H2 April influenced by the customs inspection.
In terms of import origin, with many units resuming stable operation in a certain country in the Middle East, the import volume from a certain country in the Middle East was predicted to reach 509kt in April, up 281.2kt or 123.46% M-O-M. The import volume from South America was estimated at 86.7kt, down 216.2kt or 69.1% M-O-M. The import volume from New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Brunei also declined to different extents. However, the increment of cargoes from a certain country in the Middle East basically offset the decline of non-Iranian cargoes on the whole.
In terms of arrival region, the volume of imported cargoes arriving in South China and Tianjin rose notably, while that of cargoes arriving in East China dropped from last month. In April, about 167kt of imported methanol arrived in South China, up 93.1kt or 125.98% M-O-M. The arrival volume was estimated at 110kt in Tianjin, up 59.42% M-O-M. In Jiangsu, the arrival volume of imported methanol was about 331.7kt, down 41.64% M-O-M. The methanol price in South China remained higher than that in East China, attracting some cargoes to change unloading ports from East China to South China.
As for May, it is projected that China’s methanol import volume will rise. Although many units in Southeast Asia are under maintenance, there will be stable delivery of contracts between Southeast Asia and China in May. Besides, the shipment of cargoes from a certain country in the Middle East is smooth, and the cargoes from South America, especially Chile, will increase again. Overall, it is predicted that the methanol import volume will be 1,210-1,250kt in May. Market players should pay attention to the weather in May and the actual loading & unloading of imported cargoes.
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