China PE Imports to Continue Downtrend in 2023
According to GACC, China’s total import volume in October 2023 was 1,224.18kt, down 2.31% M-O-M but up 7.38% Y-O-Y. The total import volume in the first 10 months of 2023 was 11,053.55kt, down 0.47% Y-O-Y. The import volume in October inched down M-O-M but it remained at a high level.
In October 2023, China’s PE imports from major origins saw rises and falls. Those from the U.S., Iran and Qatar improved, while those from Saudi Arabia, UAE, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Japan dropped. The largest increment in import volume was seen from the U.S., and it remained the top 1 import origin. The import volume from the U.S. was 277.6kt, up 18.2kt or 7% M-O-M. That from Saudi Arabia ranked second, which was 205.9kt, down 41.1kt or 16.64% M-O-M, followed by UAE (134.4kt, down 2.1kt or 1.51% M-O-M), Iran (133.2kt, up 28.8kt or 27.57% M-O-M) and South Korea (84.7kt, down 6.1kt or 6.77%).
As for the trade mode, China mainly imported PE via general trade, processing trade with imported materials and stored goods in bonded warehouses. The import volume via general trade was 1,053.7kt in October 2023, down 1.23% M-O-M, taking up 86% of the total. That via processing trade with imported materials and stored goods in bonded warehouses was 102.1kt and 56.7kt, taking up 8% and 5% respectively.
On the whole, although the import volume from the U.S. and Iran improved notably, that from other origins declined, dragging down the overall import volume M-O-M. SCI reckons that the import volume will likely continue to fall in November. The import volume will show a downtrend mainly because most PE downstream demand in China weakened after the demand peak season in October, so orders were limited. In addition, some end users mainly consume their inventory as they replenished their stocks previously. Meanwhile, China’s PE market price declined slightly in November, dampening the imports. Moreover, the rising exchange rate of RMB increased the sales pressure of imported resources, curbing the imports. It’s estimated that the import volume in November will likely continue to fall M-O-M to around 1,160.8kt.
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