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In the recent five years, the CTO/MTO industry has remained as the largest methanol downstream field in China. In addition, MTBE, acetic acid, formaldehyde, MTH and DME have also consumed methanol steadily.
There were some changes in the methanol downstream structure in the past five years.
The methanol consumption from the CTO/MTO industry kept rising, but the consumption growth slowed down. Influenced by crude oil price fluctuations and the feedstock diversification of olefin feedstock, the competitiveness of CTO/MTO has declined. In 2023, some MTO units remained under shutdown for over half a year, affecting the demand for methanol.
The methanol consumption from BDO, DMC and some new materials expanded. For example, with the promotion of degradable plastics, the BDO industrial profit is relatively favorable, stimulating the BDO capacity expansion. In 2024, there are still some newly added units scheduled to go into operation.
The methanol consumption in the energy field also saw structural growth. For example, the changes in the global energy supply pattern in 2022 and 2023 resulted in a supply gap of high octane components, which brought more methanol demand in the MTBE industry.
From 2019 to 2023, the top two methanol consumption regions in China were Northwest China and East China (including Shandong). Regional consumption structure changes are in line with regional consumption volume variations.
The successive startup of CTO/MTO units in Northwest China and East China drove up local methanol consumption. In 2023, with the profitability at local olefin plants weakening, the methanol consumption volume in East China dropped but still ranked second. Benefiting from the stable operation of the MTO unit at Tianjin Bohua Yongli Chemical, the methanol consumption volume in North China continued to improve, and its ranking climbed from fourth in 2021 to third in 2023.
East China is a major consumption market with abundant methanol downstream applications. In addition, facing increasingly fierce market competition, the methanol producers in Northwest China have also begun to construct downstream units to strengthen their anti-risk capability. Meanwhile, some small downstream plants in the coastal areas began to invest in Northwest China to obtain low-priced feedstock steadily, promoting local methanol consumption growth and enriching the local downstream consumption structure.
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