Mar LPG Import Sees M-O-M Rise of 44%
According to GACC’s data, China’s LPG import volume was about 3,107.4kt in March 2024, up 43.99% M-O-M and up 50.37% Y-O-Y. Meanwhile, China’s LPG export volume totaled 70.8kt, down 4.31% M-O-M. China’s LPG import volume in March 2024 went up M-O-M, mainly influenced by import costs and international ample supply.
Mar 2024 China LPG Import
Source: GACC
As seen from the table above, China’s propane import volume was 2,635.1kt in March, up 41.57% M-O-M and up 63.58% Y-O-Y. Moreover, the import volume of butane was 445.4kt in March, up 77.13% M-O-M and up 3.70% Y-O-Y. Meanwhile, China’s import volume of other LPG and olefins was relatively low. Besides, China’s import volume of liquefied ethylene, propylene, butylene and butadiene was 26.6kt, down 41.05% M-O-M and up 1.82% Y-O-Y.
China’s LPG import volume in March 2024 increased notably M-O-M. First, China’s LPG import costs in March were relatively low, and some market participants intended to replenish stocks. Stimulated by low prices, importers raised procurement volume. Second, one 1,000kt/a PDH unit in Fujian came on stream, so both replenishment and unit operating gave support to LPG import. Third, the LPG supply from the Middle East remained high, and refineries in the U.S. needed to cut inventory. Accordingly, the overall international LPG supply was ample.
According to China Customs, China imported LPG mainly from the U.S., the U.A.E., Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman. The imported LPG volume from the U.S. was about 1,649.6kt, ranking first. Hereinto, the import volume of propane was 1,597.5kt. Meanwhile, China imported 721.7kt of LPG from the U.A.E., including 504.5kt of propane and 217.3kt of butane. Besides, volume of LPG imported from Qatar was 206.3kt, including 171.3kt of propane and 35.3kt of butane.
Main provinces and cities that imported most of LPG in March 2024 were Shandong, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Shanghai and Jiangsu. Therein, Shandong imported 620.5kt of LPG, ranking first and taking up 19.97% of the total. Meanwhile, LPG import volume in Zhejiang and Guangdong was 569.3kt and 409.2kt, taking up 18.32% and 13.17% of the total respectively.
Mar 2024 China LPG Export
Source: GACC
In March, China’s LPG export volume totaled 70.8kt, down 4.31% M-O-M and down 10.1kt or 12.47% Y-O-Y. Therein, the propane export volume was 26.1kt, down 11.72% M-O-M and down 22.20% Y-O-Y. Meanwhile, the butane export volume was 44.5kt, up 0.23% M-O-M and down 5.83% Y-O-Y. Moreover, there were few LPG and olefins exports. Besides, China’s export volume of liquefied ethylene, propylene, butylene and butadiene was zero in March.
In March 2024, China mainly exported LPG to Hong Kong of China, Philippines, Vietnam, Macao of China and the U.S., and the volume of LPG exported to the above five countries or regions was 68.6kt or so, taking up 96.93% of China’s LPG export volume.
It is estimated that China’s LPG import in April may increase M-O-M. As for the deep-processing industry, the operating rate of the LPG deep-processing industry may rise, and some overhauled units may be restarted. Accordingly, the demand for LPG from the deep-processing industry will probably improve notably in April 2024. The international LPG prices are relatively stable, and the U.S.-origin resources are sufficient. Meanwhile, the LPG supply from the Middle East is ample, and the LPG price is relatively low, stimulating downstream procurement enthusiasm. Overall, it is estimated that China’s LPG import volume in April 2024 may increase and remain over 3,000kt. Imported LPG resources may notably hit China’s domestic LPG market. With the approach of the traditional demand slack season, the increment in LPG import volume may exert bearish impacts on China’s LPG market.
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