H2, 2024 Likely to See Fairish Semi-Steel Tire Market
In H1, 2024, the three major markets for China’s semi-steel tire performed well, giving certain support to sales at producers. Thus, tire producers were active in uplifting production. In H2, 2024, the demand for semi-steel tire may continue to be high, so the operating rate may hover at highs. Firstly, against the backdrop of the tense international situation and the continued increase in global car ownership, China’s semi-steel tire export market may remain robust. However, in H2, 2024, Europe may impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties on China’s electric vehicles, and the production and sales of passenger vehicles are likely to slow down, dragging down the demand for OE tire. Bolstered by a strong export market, tire producers may run at high loads of their tire units in H2, 2024.
The demand for semi-steel tire may differ in various markets.
As seen from historical characteristics, the export volume of semi-steel tire in H2 performs better from H1 of a year. In H1, 2024, the export volume of semi-steel tire has climbed to a historically high level, higher than H1, 2023. Besides, the overseas market may be turbulent. As strategic materials, tire still have certain support for the demand.
Meanwhile, due to the high cost of tire production, overseas tire capacity consolidation still exists, resulting in some orders being transferred to the domestic market, thus promoting the export of China’s tire.
In terms of the OE tire market, in H2, 2024, the demand for OE tire may be favorable, which may rise Y-O-Y but the growth rate may narrow. Thus, the support for sales is likely to weaken. In H2, 2024, the EU begins to impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties on China’s electric vehicles, which may drag down the output of China’s automobile output. It is estimated that the demand for OE tire may weaken somewhat, curbing the increment in the whole year.
In terms of the replacement tire market, in H2, 2024, the overall replacement tire market may change slightly Y-O-Y. China’s per capita car ownership is still not high. With the continuous improvement of China’s resident income and consumption levels, China’s car ownership still has the potential to grow. Therefore, in the long term, the demand in the replacement tire market may grow. However, at present, there has been no obvious improvement in consumer travel. In 2024, the demand for replacement tire may hardly improve.
The supply of semi-steel tire may trend up.
In terms of supply, in H2, 2024, the export market of semi-steel tire may remain robust. Despite relatively OE tire and replacement tire markets, a strong export market may give a boost to the overall demand. Therefore, tire producers are likely to run at high loads. In H2, 2024, underpinned by the demand, it is expected that the semi-steel tire output may ramp up Y-O-Y, in the wake of capacity release at semi-steel tire producers.
In H2, 2024, China’s semi-steel tire market may perform well.
In H1, 2024, production and sales in China’s semi-steel tire market remained strong. The demand for semi-steel tire was high both at home and abroad, pushing up the overall sales. Semi-steel tire producers faced a supply crunch and ran at high loads. The Y-O-Y growth in automobile sales may slow down in H2, 2024, dragging down the market demand for semi-steel tire. However, the overall export market may perform well in H2, 2024, which may drive up overall sales. Based on the above analysis, the total demand for semi-steel tire may be passable. Yet, due to the demand slowdown in the OE tire market, the Y-O-Y growth of total demand in H2, 2024 may narrow somewhat in H2, 2024.
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