Jun 2024 PE Output Forecast
Introduction: SCI predicts that China’s PE output may be 2,151.5kt in June 2024, among which LLDPE may take up 814.7kt, HDPE may contribute 1,105.5kt, and the output of LDPE may hit 231.3kt. The output is estimated to record a 4.89% M-O-M decrease and a 2.43% Y-O-Y decline. Except for increases in HDPE film and raffia, the output of other varieties may all witness drops in June.
China PE output to decrease in June along with slight decrement in operating rate
SCI estimated that China’s PE output may be 2,151.5kt in June 2024, down 4.89% M-O-M and 2.43% Y-O-Y. Among these PE products, LLDPE may take up 814.7kt, HDPE may contribute 1,105.5kt, and the output of LDPE may hit 231.3kt. The operating rate of China’s PE industry will probably be 75.75% in June, dipping by 1.32 percentage points from May.
From the regional aspect, the PE output in East China is estimated to be approximately 485.7kt, making East China rank the first surpassing Northwest China. Followed by South China and Northwest China with the output of 457.2kt and 433.1kt respectively, and the output in South China may rise by 75.9kt compared to May. It is estimated that the combined output of these three regions may account for 63.95% of the total domestic output, an increase of 1.43 percentage points compared to May.
In terms of producers, the top five PE producers in June are expected to be Zhejiang Petroleum & Chemical, PetroChina Guangdong Petrochemical, a joint venture in South China, PetroChina Daqing Petrochemical and Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, with a total output of 534.9kt, accounting for 24.86% of the total PE output. Comparing the output in May and June, more noticeable increases may be observed in Lianyungang Petrochemical, Fujian Refining & Petrochemical and PetroChina Guangdong Petrochemical, with monthly output changes ranging from 25kt to 43kt.
Most PE varieties to witness output declines in June except HDPE film and raffia
Specifically in terms of downstream application, the output of LLDPE, HDPE pipe and HDPE blow molding is envisaged to top three, collectively accounting for 65.35% of the total PE output. It is estimated that the output of most varieties may decrease compared to May, with notable reductions in that of LDPE and HDPE pipe. The output of LDPE will probably decrease by 44.3kt compared to May, and that of HDPE pipes may decline by 60kt, while that of HDPE film and HDPE raffia may increase by 40.7kt and 26.8kt respectively.
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