Q1 China MTBE Prices See a Down-up Trend
China’s MTBE supply and demand went up in Q1, 2024, but the growth rate of consumption was lower than that of supply. Accordingly, China’s MTBE prices in Q1, 2024 were curtailed slightly Y-O-Y.
China’s MTBE prices declined and then rose in Q1, 2024 with the average price of RMB 6,681/mt, down 2.60% from Q4, 2023 or 3.98% Y-O-Y. Therein, the highest price was RMB 7,250/mt on March 29, 2024, and the lowest level was RMB 6,448/mt on January 17, 2024. The international crude oil prices fluctuated upward in January, but it gave thin support to China’s MTBE market. China’s MTBE output increased in January, so the overall MTBE supply was ample. Although the overall export negotiations performed well, the overall downstream demand gave thin support to the market. The overall downstream replenishment was lower than expected before the Spring Festival holiday, and most MTBE producers needed to cut inventory before the holiday. Accordingly, China’s MTBE prices fluctuated downward. After the holiday, downstream users needed to replenish stocks, and the overall MTBE export trading performed well. At the same time, the inventory at MTBE producers was low. Accordingly, China’s MTBE prices inched up. The overall price increment was limited, as the recovery of the demand from the gasoline industry was lower than expected. Entering March, the congregation of goods was favorable, and many MTBE units took overhauls in succession or shut down temporarily. Accordingly, China’s MTBE supply tightened notably. With temperature rising, the gasoline end consumption recovered slowly. Besides, the international crude oil prices moved upward, supporting the market sentiment. Overall, China’s MTBE prices increased dramatically.
China’s MTBE consumption volume was about 2,180.9kt in January and February 2024. SCI reckons that China’s MTBE consumption volume may total 3,267.8kt in Q1, 2024, up 3.43% from Q4, 2023 or 7.54% Y-O-Y. Rising demand supported MTBE prices hovering at highs. However, the consumption growth rate was lower than supply growth rate, intensifying the market competition. Accordingly, China’s mainstream MTBE prices inched down Y-O-Y.
According to SCI’s data, China’s MTBE output totaled 3,952.7kt in Q1, 2024, up 11.66% Y-O-Y. Backed by the favorable MTBE production profits, the overall operating rate of the MTBE industry hovered at highs. Operating rates of units at sample enterprises averaged 63.46% in Q1, 2024, up 7.32 percentage points Y-O-Y. China’s MTBE supply was ample and then tightened in Q1, 2024. In March, some large-scale MTBE units took overhauls or shut down temporarily. Meanwhile, China’s MTBE export volume was high, and China’s domestic MTBE demand improved.
According to GACC’s data, China’s MTBE export volume reached 354.1kt in January and February 2024, up 44.83% Y-O-Y. SCI estimates that China’s MTBE export volume may total about 630kt in Q1, 2024, up 96% Y-O-Y. In March, the congregation of goods was favorable, and MTBE spot supply tightened. With the gasoline demand recovering gradually, the demand for gasoline feedstock will probably improve gradually. Overall, it is estimated that China’s MTBE prices may continue to rise.
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