Mar-May Methanol Import Volume Interpretation and Forecast
In previous years, China’s methanol import volume basically recovered in March. However, 2024 saw a different performance of decreased imports. In April and May, the import volume is predicted to rally gradually, pressuring methanol prices.
The import volume in March was estimated at 847kt, down 45.7kt or 5.12% M-O-M, which was mainly influenced by the delays in resumption of overseas production and unloading of imported cargoes as well as non-Iranian cargoes flowing into the overseas regions for more arbitrage opportunities.
In March, the imports from the Middle East declined due to local production outages, while cargoes from South America arrived at ports intensively. The import volume from South America was estimated at 221kt, up 93.2kt or 72.93% M-O-M, but that from the Middle East dropped to 420.5kt, down 26.5% M-O-M.
Considering possible import cost rises, most downstream plants stocked up in advance or expanded the proportion of inland resources to optimize their feedstock cost. In March, the import cargoes delivered to coastal MTO plants rose to 589.5kt, taking up 69.6% of the total imports and up 3.04 percentage points from last month. With most cargoes flowing into downstream plants, the inventory at coastal public tank farms kept sliding. In East China, the inventory at important public tank farms fell to a historic low by the end of March, which bolstered the front-month basis to some extent.
With the methanol units in the Middle East and the U.S. restarted gradually in H2 March, the global operating rate is stable-to-rising, and the future market supply is expected to increase. On the one hand, the arrivals from a certain country in the Middle East is predicted to increase in line with local accelerated shipment. On the other hand, non-Iranian cargoes arriving in China may be still tight. Overall, China’s methanol import volume is projected to be 960-980kt in April and may rally to over 1,100kt in May. It is still needed to pay close attention to weather, unloading of imports and logistics.
All information provided by SCI is for reference only, which shall not be reproduced without permission.
Please click "Read more" for the full article.
