Q3 China PVC Powder Export Volume Rose YOY
Introduction: In the first three quarters of 2024, China’s PVC powder exports showed a growth trend compared to the same period in 2023. Among the various export destinations, India remained the most significant, accounting for more than half of the total export volume. However, in the fourth quarter, the uncertainty surrounding India’s import policies may lead to a slight decline in export volumes compared to the third quarter. Nevertheless, the annual export volume is expected to maintain an upward trend.
Q3 PVC powder export volume saw a YoY increase.
According to GACC, China’s PVC powder export volume in September was 278.2kt, up 76.3kt MoM, marking the second-highest level this year. The significant growth in exports was primarily driven by expectations of a delayed BIS certification in August, leading to a noticeable increase in export orders. Most of these orders were delivered in September, as there was a time lag for fulfillment. On August 23, India announced the postponement of the PVC powder BIS certification implementation from August 24 to December 24, allowing domestic producers to fulfill their orders on time, with some accelerating their deliveries, resulting in a sharp rise in September’s export volumes. In the first three quarters of 2024, China’s PVC powder export volume reached 1,940.1kt, up 174.8kt or 9.9% YoY. India was the primary destination (1,048.2kt), accounting for 54.02% of total exports, underscoring India’s continued importance in influencing China’s overall PVC powder export trends.
In October, PVC powder export volume may inch down MoM.
In H1 September, China’s export orders remained soft, but there was a recovery in the latter part of the month. However, overall order volumes were lower compared to August. In early September, PVC powder prices in China declined, causing foreign buyers to hesitate, but by the end of the month, India’s Formosa Plastics Corporation stabilized its quotes, and China's PVC prices hit a low point, leading to increased purchasing activity among Indian buyers due to the price advantage of domestic sources.
Based on the overall export order situation in September, it is expected that PVC powder export deliveries in October may be slightly lower than in September. However, the export volume for October is still expected to remain relatively high.
China’s PVC powder export volume is expected to move down in November and December.
In October, as China’s PVC powder market prices rose, PVC producers raised export offers, denting the price advantage of Chinese-made resources. Consequently, export orders in early October remained relatively weak. Market attention is focused on the subsequent November shipping quotes from Formosa Plastics. If Chinese-made resources fail to maintain a price advantage, export volumes in November could drop more significantly compared to October.
On March 26, 2024, India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry announced an anti-dumping investigation on PVC powder originating from or imported from mainland China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan of China, Thailand, and the United States. There is an expectation that the results of this investigation will be announced at the end of October, although no official announcement has been made yet. Market participants remain cautious, and foreign buyers’ enthusiasm for purchasing from China is low. With the BIS certification deadline approaching again, foreign buyers may adopt a more wait-and-see attitude, leading to a sluggish export outlook for December.
Overall, China’s PVC powder export orders to India in the fourth quarter may decrease compared to the third quarter, leading to a quarter-on-quarter decline in the overall export volume. However, with a significant year-on-year increase in export volumes for the first three quarters, the annual PVC powder export volume is expected to show an overall growth trend in 2024.
All information provided by SCI is for reference only, which shall not be reproduced without permission.
Please click "Read more" for the full article.
