Dec SBR Operating Rate to Continue to Rise Driven by Profits
Introduction: Up to November 2024, there were 11 ESBR producers in China with a total capacity of 1,460kt/a. This research covered all of China’s SBR producers. Therein, there were 2 SBR producers in North China with a total capacity of 350kt/a, 4 in East China with 470kt/a, 2 in South China with 150kt/a, 2 in Northeast China with 340kt/a, and 1 in Northwest China with 150kt/a.
In November, the operating rate of the ESBR industry climbed MoM.
According to SCI, in November, the operating rate of China’s ESBR industry was 77.50%, up 5.78 percentage points MoM. In November, the SBR unit at PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical ran at a nearly full load. The operating rate of the unit at PetroChina Fushun Petrochemical ramped up. The SBR unit at PetroChina Lanzhou Petrochemical operated normally. Shen Hua Chemical Industrial ran three production lines. The operating rates of the other SBR units changed limitedly. Overall, the operating rate of the SBR industry trended up MoM.
According to SCI, in September 2024, the operating rates of the ESBR industry in different regions of China diverged. Therein, the operating rates in North China, South China, and Northwest China were stable. Those in East China and Northeast China rose by 1 percentage point and 30 percentage points respectively, mainly due to the MoM rises in the operating rates at PetroChina Fushun Petrochemical and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical.
The changes in the operating rates in various regions resulted in some adjustments in the SBR resource flow in different regions. The overall circulation volume of SBR resources leveled up, so the SBR supply provided weaker support for the SBR price. The SBR unit at PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical was restarted on October 16 and gradually ran at a full load in November. The operating rate of the unit at PetroChina Fushun Petrochemical ramped up. Hangzhou Yibang Rubber ran its unit at a full load. Overall, the operating rate of the SBR industry rose notably MoM.
The monthly average prices of feedstock butadiene and styrene both trended down, and that of SBR also slid. Yet, the decrement in the SBR price was smaller than that in feedstock prices, so the gross profits of the SBR industry continued to expand. In November, all of the SBR producers sourcing feedstock butadiene from the market were under normal production, and the operating rates were maximized. Also, the operating rates of the SBR units sourcing feedstock butadiene from refining-chemical integration units were maximized. Overall, 2 SBR producers saw MoM growth in operating rates in November, no one saw a decline, and the remaining units maintained stable operating rates. The units at Fujian Fuxiang Chemical and Tianjin Lugang Petroleum Rubber remained offline.
According to SCI, the SBR unit at PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical is expected to run at a full load. The operating rates of the other units will possibly see no change. Overall, the operating rate of the SBR industry in China may rise to around 78%, up around 0.5 percentage points MoM. The relocated 220kt/a ESBR unit at Shen Hua Chemical Industrial will possibly be fed into feedstock in end-December, and the existing 170kt/a ESBR unit may operate at the same time. In the next three months, only Huizhou LCY Elastomers may shut its SBR unit for around 15 days in mid-December. The other SBR units are likely to run normally. The overall SBR resources circulating in the market are predicted to increase in the next three months. The operating rate is likely to continue to climb. The operating rate forecast above may be adjusted based on the actual running status of the SBR units.
All information provided by SCI is for reference only, which shall not be reproduced without permission.
Please click "Read more" for the full article.
