Feb 2025 China LPG Import Arrivals See MOM Drop
According to SCI’s shipment data, China’s LPG import arrivals were about 2,334kt in February 2025, down 21.86% MOM, and mainly influenced by import costs, operating rates of deep-processing units, etc. China’s LPG import costs dropped in March 2025, and the deep-processing demand remained strong. Accordingly, it is estimated that China’s LPG import arrivals may go up in March 2025.
According to SCI’s shipment data, China’s LPG import arrivals were 2,334kt in February 2025, down 653kt or 21.86% MOM, and up 349kt or 17.58% YOY.
According to SCI’s data, the consumption of LPG from the deep-processing industry went down in February 2025. According to the alkane deep-processing unit operating rates, the monthly average operating rates of butane dehydrogenation units and light ends crackers went up, but it gave thin support to the total LPG demand with low capacity. Meanwhile, operating rates of PDH and MA units went down, so the demand for LPG from the PDH and MA industries in February dropped by 130kt and 15kt MOM respectively.
Taking the PDH industry as an example, the PDH industry experienced a monthly average profit loss of RMB 433/mt in February 2025. China’s propylene prices hovered at lows with supply increment, weighing down PDH unit profits.
In terms of the LPG import arbitrage, China’s LPG import arbitrage remained positive and performed well in February. As of February 28, 2025, China’s LPG importers experienced an average import arbitrage of RMB 193/mt. China’s LPG prices remained firm with transportation recovery, downstream replenishment after the Spring Festival holiday and supply shrinkage. Accordingly, China’s LPG import arbitrage was relatively favorable in February 2025.
China’s LPG import costs in February 2025 went up. The propane and butane February CP reached $635/mt and $625/mt respectively. Given the import cost increment, the procurement enthusiasm was normal. Most importers intended to consume inventory, so the LPG port inventory level kept dipping.
It is estimated that China’s LPG import arrivals in March 2025 will probably go up MOM. Given the decline in March CP, the LPG import costs in March decline notably MOM, supporting the import enthusiasm. However, the international crude oil prices may go down, so most market participants may adopt bearish attitudes to the import market, weighing on the import enthusiasm. Most deep-processing enterprises purchase resources on a need-to basis. Overall, it is estimated that China’s LPG import arrivals in March 2025 may go up, but the increment may be limited.
All information provided by SCI is for reference only, which shall not be reproduced without permission.
Please click "Read more" for the full article.
