Early 2025 MTBE Market Sees Price Increments
Recently, China’s MTBE prices rose rapidly. Taking Shandong market as an example, the mainstream dealing prices of MTBE hovered at RMB 5,600-5,680/mt on January 5, 2025 and increased to RMB 6,000-6,100/mt on January 10, 2025. There were many factors lifting MTBE prices.
First, the MTBE supply volume went down, and the MTBE spot supply kept tightening.
China’s MTBE prices fluctuated within a narrow range at low levels in December 2024. However, MTBE plants experienced severe cost pressure in winter, so some MTBE plants shut units down. Moreover, the restart time of some MTBE units was delayed. Besides, the MTBE unit at Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Group was shut down, dragging down the overall MTBE output. With MTBE downstream demand improvement, the trading atmosphere at MTBE plants performed well. Overall, the MTBE spot supply kept tightening.
Second, the MTBE export trading became more active, so the MTBE spot supply further dropped.
China’s MTBE export trading volume improved notably from mid-November 2024, as the foreign procurement improvement. From December 2024 to March 2025, it is estimated that China’s MTBE export volume may surpass 500kt. Influenced by the export orders, China’s LPG spot supply further tightened.
Third, the demand for MTBE improved dramatically with favorable gasoline orders.
Downstream users replenished stocks before the Spring Festival holiday from mid-November 2024, so gasoline orders at refineries increased notably. It is predicted that the gasoline delivery volume in January 2025 may surpass 300kt. With the approach of the delivery, the demand for gasoline feedstock improved notably. Meanwhile, the MTBE prices were relatively low, lifting the procurement for MTBE.
Fourth, the import cost of fuel oil increased.
In recent years, China’s fuel oil import volume fluctuated upward. From January 1, 2025, the import tariff of fuel oil became 3%, lifting the import cost and weigh on the import of fuel oil. The operating rates at producers who arrange fuel oil as feedstock may go down, and the supply of China’s oil products may tighten, lifting prices of oil products.
Besides, sources say that the crude oil supply at Shandong independent refineries may tighten, influencing the unit operating rates at independent refineries. Therefore, the supply of refined oil may decline. Accordingly, the procurement enthusiasm for refined oil and related oil-blending feedstock may see notable improvements, lifting China’s MTBE prices.
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