Positive Factors Supports EPDM Prices in Mar
Introduction: In February 2025, China’s EPDM market was in the phase of resuming work and production after the Spring Festival holiday. Downstream demand fell short of expectations, although essential procurement gradually took place. The supply side remained tight, with unit maintenance in Saudi Arabia driving up domestic spot offers. The supply side provided clear positive support. In March, demand is expected to further recover, strengthening the support for bottom market prices.
In February, China’s EPDM prices saw both increases and decreases, and mainstream prices fluctuated at highs backed by tight supply. The EPDM market operated tepidly this month, with low trading activity. As for supply, frequent news of unit maintenance both domestically and overseas supported prices to fluctuate at highs. As for demand, post-holiday demand recovery was less than ideal, with some small-scale downstream enterprises delaying their restarts compared to previous years. The actual rigid demand in the market was limited, providing some support for the EPDM bottom price but insufficient to sustain high-price transactions. As of February 26, domestic EPDM prices mostly ranged between RMB 22,500-27,000/mt, showing a strong consolidation; imported EPDM prices mostly ranged between RMB 22,400-26,000/mt, with some Saudi Arabian supplies priced between RMB 22,400-23,000/mt. The dealing prices were negotiable.
In February, offers for imported EPDM resources were stable MoM. The arrival volume of imported goods slightly decreased compared with January. The total import volume from South Korea remained at a high level, while the import volume from Saudi Arabia is expected to decline, mainly affected by the maintenance of the joint venture factory of SABIC and ExxonMobil.
In February, the domestic demand for EPDM was less than ideal, with overall operating rata across industries recovering poorly. This was mainly due to delayed post-holiday restarts by small-scale downstream enterprises and low operational levels at resumed producers. The relatively flat performance on the demand side was unable to support EPDM price increases, although the support to the bottom price remained adequate.
According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January, automobile output and sales reached 2.45 million and 2.423 million units, respectively, representing a MoM decrease of 27.2% and 30.5%. While output increased by 1.7% YoY, sales decreased by 0.6%. The output and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.015 million and 0.944 million units, respectively, marking YoY increases of 29% and 29.4%. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 38.9% of the total new vehicle sales.
Forecast:
Considering the tight supply amid unit maintenance and slow demand increase, the price of domestic EPDM may fluctuate at highs in the next three months, with a relatively small overall fluctuation range. In March, the operation of the domestic EPDM market is expected to be better than that in February, and the EPDM price is expected to rise slightly. During the month, there will be more unit maintenance, leading to further tight available resources. Moreover, the holding costs of some merchants will increase. This will drive the market price up. On the demand side, a restorative increase is expected. With the expected increase in the operating rate of downstream industries, the consumption of feedstock will increase, strengthening the positive impact on EPDM prices. SCI predicts that EPDM market trading will be more active in March, and the market price will rise slightly.
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