Coated Paper Exports Accelerate on Sluggish Domestic Demand
Intro: In recent years, the domestic demand for coated paper has shrunk, and producers actively promoted exports. The demand from key trading partners in South and Southeast Asia further boosted coated paper export volumes, and the export dependence has exceeded 40%. From January to May 2025, the coated paper export volume increased YoY, with growth potential expected in Q3 and Q4.
Export Dependency Rising Year by Year
The export dependency of the coated paper industry has gradually increased over the past five years. China's coated paper export volume reached 1,902.2kt in 2024, up 16.59% YoY. The export dependency hit a near-five-year high of 44.18%, up 10.78pp YoY. Domestic demand for coated paper has shrunk in recent years. To offset the decline in domestic demand, producers actively promoted exports. Additionally, the increase in traditional festivals and large-scale events in key trading partners like India and Southeast Asia contributed to a certain increase in coated paper demand.
Coated Paper Export Partners Remain Stable, Export Volume Rises YoY
Export data from the customs shows that coated paper exports in May 2025 were 168.5kt, down 0.54% MoM but up 2.23% YoY. The cumulative export volume from January to May 2025 was 838.9kt, a YoY increase of 5.80%. The structure of coated paper export partners is relatively stable. The total export volume to the Top 10 countries/regions from January to May 2025 was 485.6kt, accounting for 57.88% of total exports. The export volume to the top five countries accounted for 37.46%, an increase of 1.54pp YoY.
Domestic demand remains weak with falling consumption YoY
Publishing tenders have been delayed in the past two years. Multiple regions have implemented control policies on supplementary teaching materials for primary and secondary schools, leading to a decline in demand for textbooks traditionally reliant on school channels, which has constrained coated paper demand. Besides the rigid printing demand for teaching materials, coated paper is also used for picture albums, flyers, posters, product packaging, trademarks, etc. The impact of digital media has led to a shrinkage in demand for paper publications like magazines. Moreover, numerous macroeconomic disruptions have resulted in overall weak demand in markets like commercial printing and packaging products, with low business activity levels. Demand for commercial orders like downstream advertising and flyer printing has decreased. Affected by multiple factors, SCI estimates domestic coated paper market consumption in the first half of 2025 fell 26.11% YoY.
Coated Paper Exports May See Growth Potential
Based on the current state of domestic coated paper demand, although there will be essential demand support from publishing tender deliveries in July and August, the consumption of coated paper for teaching materials is smaller compared to uncoated woodfree paper. Furthermore, high temperatures in summer keep downstream printing plants' operating rates low, commercial order demand is in the off-season, and traders’ intention to build inventory remains weak, limiting room for demand growth. However, countries and regions like India have more festivals and activities in Q3, which should provide some boost to export demand for coated paper. Additionally, the free trade agreements signed between China and certain countries/regions have reduced export costs for producers, also favoring an increase in coated paper exports.
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