EPDM Price Sustains Downward Trend on Weak Demand
Introduction: In July, the supply and demand both weighed on the EPDM market, with the EPDM price noticeably decreasing. In August, demand become the key market driver, exerting stronger downward pressure on the EPDM prices.
In July, China’s EPDM market price decreased MoM, with weaker demand and higher competitive pressure. The EPDM market underperformed compared to June, as sales noticeably slowed down amid weaker downstream demand. The operating rates of some downstream industries dropped to varying degrees due to the high-temperature weather and the influence of external factors. The lackluster demand strongly weighed on the EPDM prices during this month. EPDM supply increased as a new unit came online, putting high sales pressure on traders. In addition, as the production cost of some EPDM grades decreased slightly, the market price went down noticeably. In late July, traders of multiple tiers frequently sold at lows with a bearish sentiment about the future market. As of August 4, 2025, the mainstream market price of domestic EPDM was RMB 18,700-26,000/mt, the mainstream price of imported EPDM was RMB 19,500-24,800/mt, and the price of resources from Saudi Arabia was RMB 19,500-19,800/mt, continuing to decline.
In July, USD offers for China’s import EPDM declined MoM, and the arrival volume of import resources is expected to be largely stable compared to June. Saudi Arabia and South Korea remain the main import origins, with their arrival volumes projected to stay at a high level. During the month, the USD import price was around $2,100-2,570/mt, while the price of resources from Saudi Arabia was around $2,100-2,150/mt.
Import: According to the data released by GACC, in June 2025, the import volume of EPDM was 14,259.39mt, an increase of 2.13% YoY; the net import volume was 11,125.78mt. In June, the import value of EPDM in China was $32,219,039, and the import average price was $2,259.50/mt, an increase of 4.03% YoY. From January to June, the total import volume was 100,082.7mt, an increase of 28.72% YoY.
In terms of trading partners, in June 2025, Saudi Arabia accounted for the largest proportion of China’s EPDM imports, with about 42.95% of the total import volume, or about 6,124.02mt. The second was South Korea, accounting for about 38.95% of the total import volume, or about 5,554.46mt. The third was Japan, accounting for 8.15% of the total import volume, or about 1,161.76mt.
The total import volume increased significantly. Among them, the sufficient arrival of Saudi Arabian supplies increased the sales pressure on the market spot, thereby causing the market price to decline.
In July, downstream demand weakened further, resulting in low operating rates in various downstream industries. The operating rates of some downstream industries reduced to varying degrees due to the high-temperature weather and the influence of external factors. The lackluster demand had stronger influence on the EPDM prices during this month.
According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in June 2025, the production and sales of automobiles reached 2.794 million and 2.904 million, up 5.5% and 8.1% MoM, and 11.4% and 13.8% YoY. From January to June 2025, cumulative automobile production and sales reached 15.621 million and 15.653 million units, achieving YoY growth of 12.5% and 11.4% respectively. The production growth narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, while sales growth expanded by 0.5 percentage points compared to January-May. In June, new energy vehicle (NEV) production and sales hit 1.268 million and 1.329 million units, with YoY growth of 26.4% and 26.7% respectively. NEV sales accounted for 45.8% of total new vehicle sales. January-June NEV production and sales totaled 6.968 million and 6.937 million units, rising41.4% and 40.3% YoY, representing 44.3% of all new vehicle sales.
The EPDM market prices for the next three months may continue to decline. In August, the EPDM price may continue to decline amid a persistently weak domestic market. On the supply side, only ARLANXEO may experience short-term maintenance, while others maintain stable production. In addition, the market supply may increase with the commissioning of the new unit at PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical, and the import volume of EPDM is unlikely to decrease. With regard to the high sales pressure and limited demand, SCI anticipates that the EPDM market may remain sluggish in August, with the market price declining further.
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