Jun EPDM to Trend Down After Weakening May
Overview: Influenced by reduced downstream demand during the May holidays, EPDM market prices trended weakly with volatility. The expectation of intensified demand weakness in June suggests prices may continue to decline.
In May, China’s EPDM market prices declined MoM amid bearish factors, with the market exhibiting sluggish activity. As of May 28, the prices of PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical 4045 in Jiangsu closed at RMB 24,000-24,200/mt, down RMB 150/mt from last month. The monthly average price was RMB 24,112/mt, marking a 0.90% MoM decrease. On the demand side, post-May Day holiday downstream performance was disappointing with delayed resumptions at some enterprises and operating rates at restarted units below pre-holiday levels. This sustained demand softness intensified downward pressure on EPDM prices throughout May. On the supply side, spot prices of Saudi Arabian resources continued declining, increasing sales pressure on traders and prompting them to expand discounts. The widening price spread between domestic and import EPDM resources dampened downstream procurement sentiment, placing downstream buyers in a more aggressive bargaining stance.
By May 28, 2025, prices of Chinese-made EPDM were mostly RMB 21,900-26,500/mt. Prices of imported EPDM were mostly RMB 20,800-25,500/mt, and the market prices of some Saudi Arabian resources were RMB 20,800-21,000/mt. The dealing prices were negotiable.
In May, USD offers for imported EPDM declined MoM. The arrival volume of imports was expected to remain largely stable compared to April. The ample supply of Saudi-origin cargoes exerted significant pressure on domestic spot sales. USD offers for imported EPDM resources were mostly in the range of $2,200-2,600/mt. USD offers for some resources from Saudi Arabia were $2,200-2,300/mt.
Import: According to the data released by GACC, in April 2025, the import volume of EPDM was 16,990.05mt, an increase of 48.55% YoY; the net import volume was 14,824.95mt. In April, the import value of EPDM in China was $39,479,556, and the import average price was $2,323.69/mt, an increase of 3.32% YoY. From January to April, the total import volume was 71,143.96mt, an increase of 35.10% YoY.
In terms of trading partners, in April 2025, Saudi Arabia accounted for the largest proportion of China’s EPDM imports, accounting for about 40.78% of the total import volume, or about 6,928.4mt. The second was South Korea, accounting for about 37.90% of the total import volume, or about 5,732.43mt. The third was Japan, accounting for 9.99% of the total import volume, or about 1,697.49mt.
The total import volume increased significantly. Among them, the continuous sufficient arrival of Saudi Arabian supplies increased the sales pressure on the market spot, thereby affecting the market price to decline.
In May, downstream demand for EPDM remained sluggish. Although the temporary easing of Sino-U.S. tariffs led to a slight increase in some export orders, the overall boost to market demand was limited. Downstream procurement maintained a just-needed pace, with restrained feedstock restocking. Following the May Day holiday, the post-holiday resumption among downstream enterprises was weaker than expected. Some enterprises postponed production restarts, while those resumed ones operated below pre-holiday levels. This persistent demand weakness intensified downward pressure on EPDM market prices throughout the month.
According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.619 million units and 2.59 million units respectively. Month-on-month, they decreased by 12.9% and 11.2% respectively, and year-on-year, they increased by 8.9% and 9.8% respectively. From January to April, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 10.175 million units and 10.06 million units respectively, with YoY growth of 12.9% and 10.8% respectively. The growth rates of production and sales were 1.6 and 0.4 percentage points narrower than those from January to March respectively. The production and sales in the first four months exceeded 10 million units for the first time in history.
In April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.251 million units and 1.226 million units respectively, with YoY growth of 43.8% and 44.2% respectively. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 47.3% of the total sales of new vehicles. From January to April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 4.429 million units and 4.3 million units respectively, with YoY growth of 48.3% and 46.2% respectively. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 42.7% of the total sales of new vehicles.
Forecast
In June, China’s EPDM market is expected to remain weak, with prices projected to decline slightly. Market competition is intensifying, while demand-side weakness continues to grow. Operating rates across downstream industries are anticipated to stay subdued, compounded by narrowing profit margins, which will further reduce buyers’ price acceptance for feedstock. SCI forecasts that China’s EPDM market will face heightened downward pressure in June, with prices continuing the downward trend.
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