China PVC Exports to Remain Decent in Short Term
Introduction: The implementation of India’s BIS certification for PVC powder has been postponed again. Coupled with the significant increase in the initial CFR India quotation from Formosa Plastics (Taiwan of China), China’s domestic PVC powder resources have shown obvious price advantages in exports to India, leading to improved export order-taking by enterprises and traders. Although the second quotation from Formosa Plastics was overall reduced subsequently, narrowing the export advantage of Chinese resources, there is an expectation that India’s anti-dumping policy will likely be implemented in July, which may trigger concentrated replenishment demand from Indian buyers. China’s export order-taking is still expected to be favorable in the short term.
The implementation of India’s BIS certification for imported PVC powder has been confirmed to be delayed until December 24, 2025, boosting the enthusiasm of Indian buyers for inquiries. On June 24, Formosa Plastics generally raised the quotation for July, with a significant increase in CFR India prices from the previous $720/mt to $765/mt. In contrast, China’s PVC powder export quotations remained relatively stable. For example, the FOB quotation for calcium carbide-based PVC resources (1000 polymerization degree) was generally $597-605/mt, and the FOB quotation for ethylene-based PVC resources was $610-615/mt. Additionally, the ocean freight for Chinese mainland exports to India decreased compared to the end of May and early June, with some quotations around $70/mt. Overall, China’s PVC powder resources showed obvious export price advantages, with calcium carbide-based resources having a price advantage of nearly $100/mt. As a result, export order-taking by PVC powder producers and some traders improved compared to the previous period, and export prices remained relatively firm.
Recently, China’s PVC powder market prices have been at a relatively low level. As export order-taking is decent and export quotations are more firm than domestic trade quotations, the export arbitrage space for enterprises and traders has expanded compared to the previous period, and the enthusiasm for export order-taking is high. Supported by foreign demand, price advantages, and export arbitrage space, the good state of short-term PVC powder export order-taking is expected to continue. In H1 July, producers’ weekly export orders may remain above 25kt. Moreover, most Indian buyers intend to deliver and ship goods as soon as possible. Therefore, with the gradual delivery of these orders, it is difficult for obvious inventory accumulation to occur in domestic PVC powder warehouses and producers’ plants. In the long run, if India’s anti-dumping policy for PVC powder is implemented, it is expected to impose higher tariffs on Chinese PVC powder resources than other regions, which may weaken the competitive advantage of Chinese PVC powder in the Indian market and limit the continuous expansion of China’s PVC powder export orders.
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