H2 2025 New BD Unit Commissioning Schedule
Introduction: 2025 is a peak year for new butadiene unit commissioning, with an estimated cumulative new capacity of 930kt/a set to be released. In H1 2025, the commissioned capacity reached 350kt/a. In H2 2025, slightly more newly commissioned butadiene units will possibly go into operation compared to H1 2025, underpinning China’s butadiene supply. With the release of this new capacity, China's butadiene self-sufficiency rate will probably continue to rise, and the support for butadiene prices from the supply side may gradually weaken.
In 2025, a cumulative new butadiene capacity of 930kt/a is projected to be commissioned in China, comprising five units: Wanhua Chemical Group Phase II, ExxonMobil Huizhou Chemical Complex, PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Phase II, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical, and Shandong Yulong Petrochemical Phase II. Butadiene units at Wanhua Chemical Group Phase II and ExxonMobil Huizhou Chemical ran normally in May and were primarily focused on merchant sales. The units at PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Phase II and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical, scheduled for commissioning in H2 2025, have partial downstream units. However, even under full loads, there remains surplus butadiene volume. Shandong Yulong Petrochemical Phase II currently has no downstream matched units. Its merchant sales adjust according to operating rates and other circumstances of the downstream matched unit at Shandong Yulong Petrochemical Phase I. Overall, China’s butadiene supply in H2 2025 is forecasted to continue increasing. The specific merchant sales volume is anticipated to adjust based on upstream and downstream industries’ operating rates.
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Looking at the distribution of this expected new capacity, it is currently concentrated mainly in Shandong, Northeast China, and Guangxi/Guangdong. Currently, Northeast China and Guangxi/Guangdong are net outflow regions for butadiene resources. Shandong is a major inflow region and has the largest supply gap nationally. With the release of this new capacity, the supply gap in Shandong may narrow somewhat, but it will probably still require supplementation from external resources. Butadiene resources from Northeast China and Guangxi/Guangdong will possibly flow to other regions for consumption. New supply from Northeast China, besides consumption by downstream matched units, may see a small portion flow into the North China and Shandong markets, primarily via truck transport due to geographical constraints. Surplus butadiene volume from Guangxi/Guangdong is likely to be shipped to the East China market for consumption. Partial future SBR latex capacity commissioning within Guangxi/Guangdong is forecasted to provide some demand for butadiene. The commissioning of these new units may not cause significant changes in China’s butadiene resource flows briefly.
Looking ahead to H2 2025, with the release of new butadiene capacity, coupled with a decrease in scheduled maintenance for butadiene units, market supply volumes are estimated to increase further compared to H1 2025. Particularly in Q4, the butadiene supply is projected to reach peak levels within the year. Consequently, the support for butadiene price increases stemming from the supply side may gradually diminish.
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